R9 Santa Anita Park · Maiden Special Weight

8:15 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $65,000 · 10 runners8:15 PM · 1m Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $65K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Curlin Tornado▼LSM. Americano · S. MorfinAmericano · MorfinB76 72 64▲▲+830-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best76 72 64B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82LS
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 76 72 64
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82LS
Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career · Trainer Sergio Morfin 36% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Grape Juice Too 5-1, R3: Geezer 10-1, R5: Chapter One 30-1, R6: Jade's Most Wanted 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Estrella Esmeral 30-1
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Figures are climbing: 64, 72, 76 over its last three.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 5d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 SA 1m D MSW 6th/10 -9¼L 76 89-1 b 2w;paused 1/2;inside
9/18 LRC 6f D MSW 3rd/5 -4½L 72 23-1 b Bmpd early;2w;weakened
6/21 LRC 5f D MSW 5th/6 -9½L 64 16-1 b Off slow;2wd;no impact
2BliksemK. Frey · J. MullinsFrey · MullinsB78 76 75►@trip 786-1Fair 5-116%► Steady78 76 75@trip 78B1
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 76 75
Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Jeff Mullins 34% career 3-for-9 on turf this meet (33%), #1 of 25
Also today · Jockey R2: Rodrigoknows 6-1, R5: Throwthefirstpunch 20-1, R6: Shemakesmemad 10-1, R7: My Girl Mia 15-1 +1 more
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
4th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 7. A 78 top number against a 82 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 4d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 SA 1m T MSW 4th/7 -2L 78 5.0-1 2w-3w-ins;ins;willngly
9/4 DMR 1m T MSW 4th/10 -1L 76 3.4-1 Pull;check5/16;bpd1/16
8/1 DMR 5f T MSW 2nd/6 -3½L 75 4.1-1 Crowded early;2-4wide
3Magic Time▼V. Espinoza · M. McCarthyEspinoza · McCarthyB676-1Fair 10-19%—67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey V Espinoza 35% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Michael W McCarthy 2-for-30 on turf this meet (7%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Clouseau 4-5, R3: Jimmy Blue Jeans 5-1, R6: Zayda At The Spa 3-1 · Trainer this race: Federation 5-2
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden special weight today. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 DMR 5½f D MSW 9th/10 -10L 67 11-1 Chased 3wide; tired
4Virevolte▼A. Ayuso · R. BaltasAyuso · BaltasC63@trip 6315-1Fair 20-15%—63@trip 63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 2-for-42 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Richard Baltas 31% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Tropical Rain Day 5-2, R2: Mega Moon 9-2, R4: Captivator 3-2, R5: Opus Uno 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Cullen J 5-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
A 63 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par. Finished 9th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DMR, beaten 12 lengths.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 DMR 1m T MSW 9th/10 -12L 63 29-1 b Never involved
5Character▲▲A. Aguilar · P. MillerAguilar · MillerA83 635-1Fair 7-112%—83 63A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 82▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 83 63
▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 82▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career ★ 6-for-22 on turf this meet (27%), #2 of 25
Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome Olga 12-1, R2: Majestic Palisades 15-1, R4: Gun Runner Charlie 15-1, R6: Estrella Esmeral 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Gun Runner Charlie 15-1, R5: Opus Uno 8-1
Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 79 next best.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 SA 6f T MSW 3rd/10 -2L 83 33-1 b Inside; gained 3rd
9/5 DMR 6f D rMoc150000 7th/9 -5½L 63 2.5-1 b Bothered st;climb;4-2w
6FederationJ. Spencer · M. McCarthySpencer · McCarthyA79 59@trip 795-2Fair 4-120%—79 59@trip 79A3
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 59
Jockey J P Spencer 14% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Michael W McCarthy 2-for-30 on turf this meet (7%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Miss Jo's Curlin 7-2 · Trainer this race: Magic Time 6-1
Last out was 2nd, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at SA. Best recent figure of 79 sits right around the 82 par.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 SA 1m T MSW 2nd/7 -1½L 79 15-1 b 3-4-2w;2w;angled;rally
8/15 DMR 5½f D MSW 8th/8 -15L 59 26-1 3-4wide; no impact
7AbsolutionR. Gonzalez · B. BaffertGonzalez · BaffertA78 73@trip 784-1Fair 5-117%—78 73@trip 78A2
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 73
Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career 0-for-21 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Mirahmadi 6-1, R5: Prime Artist 3-1, R7: Subatomic Law 5-1, R8: Kool Kitten 15-1 · Trainer R4: Mirahmadi 6-1
Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time. Beaten 3 lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 5 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 SA 1m T MSW 3rd/7 -3L 78 4.4-1 b Inside; gained 3rd
8/15 DMR 5½f D MSW 5th/8 -8½L 73 7.1-1 b Bothered rivals early
8MackinawD. Van · R. MandellaVan · Mandella?5-1Fair 10-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Dyke Drayden Van 6-for-33 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Richard E Mandella 36% career ★ 4-for-19 on turf this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Joint Venture 6-1, R5: Proof He Goes 1-1, R8: Famous Forza 15-1
First career start, by Justify out of Moviemaker. Debut for a trainer who is 16% with first-timers, over 81 starts.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 17; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Justify out of Moviemaker (Curlin)
Trainer R. Mandella: 1st-time starters: 16% wins, 41% in the money (81 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 16% wins, 41% in the money (80 starts) · Maiden special weights: 16% wins, 41% in the money (231 starts)
Jockey D. Van in turf: 8 wins from 63 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 SA 6f 1:13.20 handily 1/2 ● bullet
10/17 SA 5f :58.80 handily 1/15 ● bullet
10/11 SA 5f :59.60 handily 3/15
9/25 SA 5f :58.00 handily 1/5 ● bullet
9/18 SA 4f :47.80 handily 3/17
9Klaebo▼A. Lezcano · M. GlattLezcano · GlattC7530-1Fair 20-14%—75C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Abel Lezcano 33% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Mark Glatt 34% career 1-for-25 on turf this meet (4%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Double Neat 20-1, R5: Triple Diamonds 6-1, R7: Street Swindler 5-2 · Trainer R5: Triple Diamonds 6-1, R7: Street Swindler 5-2
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. 8th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 4d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 SA 6f T MSW 8th/10 -5½L 75 10-1 b Inside; no response
10Shake For OneT. Pereira · P. OviedoPereira · Oviedo?30-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Phil Oviedo 23% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Sissy Girl 2-1, R2: Mighty Kai 6-1, R3: Cardiff Crack 3-1, R4: Mr. Disrespectful 12-1 +2 more
Unraced, but it had the morning's best 4F work on Oct 23, in :47.00. On Oct 14 it was 2nd of 14 at 5F (1:00.00).
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Tacitus out of Suburb (City Zip)
Trainer P. Oviedo: 1st-time starters: 7% wins, 27% in the money (15 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 33% wins, 33% in the money (3 starts) · Maiden special weights: 8% wins, 25% in the money (12 starts)
Jockey T. Pereira in turf: 16 wins from 193 (8%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 SA 4f :47.00 handily 1/20 ● bullet
10/14 SA 5f 1:00.00 handily 2/14
10/7 SA 4f :50.40 handily 7/15
9/30 SA 4f :49.20 handily 9/17
9/23 SA 4f :48.80 handily 17/23

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	SA	1m D	MSW	6th/10 -9¼L	76	89-1	b	2w;paused 1/2;inside
9/18	LRC	6f D	MSW	3rd/5 -4½L	72	23-1	b	Bmpd early;2w;weakened
6/21	LRC	5f D	MSW	5th/6 -9½L	64	16-1	b	Off slow;2wd;no impact

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	SA	1m T	MSW	4th/7 -2L	78	5.0-1	2w-3w-ins;ins;willngly
9/4	DMR	1m T	MSW	4th/10 -1L	76	3.4-1	Pull;check5/16;bpd1/16
8/1	DMR	5f T	MSW	2nd/6 -3½L	75	4.1-1	Crowded early;2-4wide

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	DMR	5½f D	MSW	9th/10 -10L	67	11-1		Chased 3wide; tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	DMR	1m T	MSW	9th/10 -12L	63	29-1	b	Never involved

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	SA	6f T	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	83	33-1	b	Inside; gained 3rd
9/5	DMR	6f D	rMoc150000	7th/9 -5½L	63	2.5-1	b	Bothered st;climb;4-2w

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	1m T	MSW	2nd/7 -1½L	79	15-1	b	3-4-2w;2w;angled;rally
8/15	DMR	5½f D	MSW	8th/8 -15L	59	26-1		3-4wide; no impact

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	1m T	MSW	3rd/7 -3L	78	4.4-1	b	Inside; gained 3rd
8/15	DMR	5½f D	MSW	5th/8 -8½L	73	7.1-1	b	Bothered rivals early

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	SA	6f	1:13.20	handily	1/2	● bullet
10/17	SA	5f	:58.80	handily	1/15	● bullet
10/11	SA	5f	:59.60	handily	3/15
9/25	SA	5f	:58.00	handily	1/5	● bullet
9/18	SA	4f	:47.80	handily	3/17

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	SA	6f T	MSW	8th/10 -5½L	75	10-1	b	Inside; no response

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	SA	4f	:47.00	handily	1/20	● bullet
10/14	SA	5f	1:00.00	handily	2/14
10/7	SA	4f	:50.40	handily	7/15
9/30	SA	4f	:49.20	handily	9/17
9/23	SA	4f	:48.80	handily	17/23

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$65,000

Post

8:15 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 16%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.69

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Bliksem (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 78 · 76 · 75. Backup is #7 Absolution at 4-1. Use #6 Federation in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 FEDERATION (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
#6 FEDERATION — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.6%).
#7 ABSOLUTION — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.8%).
#2 BLIKSEM — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 13.3%, they've got 11.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 BLIKSEM — we make it 13.3%, the morning line works out to 11.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 CURLIN TORNADO (30-1) — our fair 3.2% is above the morning line's 2.6%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

5Character972Bliksem846Federation841Curlin Tornado827Absolution82

none

No style yet

9Klaebo893Magic Time864Virevolte738Mackinaw10Shake For One

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Character

Bliksem

Federation

Curlin Tornado

Absolution

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Virevolte

Curlin Tornado

Bliksem

Federation

Absolution

Magic Time

Character

Klaebo

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