1You Trust Me▼J. Spencer · S. CallaghanSpencer · CallaghanC78 70 59▲▲+16↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best78 70 59 ↕C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–78 · Last 3 figs 78 70 59
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84Moves up from optional claiming to stakes nongraded. 3rd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 8.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 3rd/8 -2L 78 23-1 Ins-3w;shifted in uppr 9/4 DMR 6f D fsGenPortinB100k 4th/8 -4¾L 70 40-1 Stmbld;ins-2w;mildly 8/2 DMR 5½f D fsCTBAB100k 5th/6 -10L 59 18-1 Brk in/bpd;2-3w;tired 2Beautiful DawnLSD. Van · A. OrdonezVan · OrdonezB83 7915-1Fair 20-15%
—83 79BLSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 83 79
LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R4: May Day Ready 5-1, R6: None Above The Law 8-1 · Trainer R6: None Above The Law 8-1A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes nongraded today. Finished 2nd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA, beaten ½ length.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 2nd/8 -½L 83 1.1-1 b Bid4-3deep;duel str 8/30 DMR 6f D fsMdSpWt Won/10 79 7.1-1 b Rail bid5/16;kck clear 3Lihue Princess▼T. Pereira · S. KnappPereira · KnappC79 62 62▲▲+1730-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best79 62 62C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · Last 3 figs 79 62 62
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84WON LASTGoes 7 furlongs after running 5½ furlongs last time. Winner of a 7-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at SA last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 5½f D fsMd50000 Won/7 79 3.5-1 b Ins;clr;turn awy foe 8/28 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 6th/10 -8¼L 62 39-1 b 3wd;3-2wd;no menace 7/17 DMR 5f D fsMdSpWt 6th/10 -5L 62 28-1 b Stalked 4-5wd;no rally 4Ms Grainger Danger▼K. Frey · G. PapaprodromouFrey · PapaprodromouC77 72 53▲▲+1430-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best77 72 53C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 77 72 53
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 844 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTLast race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Figures are climbing: 53, 72, 77 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 1)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt Won/10 77 4.7-1 b Ins;chsd;re-bid;clear 8/28 DMR 1m T fsMdSpWt 5th/10 -4¼L 72 12-1 Up close2w;3deep;wknd 7/18 DMR 5f D fsMdSpWt 8th/9 -10L 53 3.7-1 Chased 4wide; empty 5Manee▲T. Baze · G. StuteBaze · StuteB84 70 63▲▲+20↕10-1Fair 12-17%
▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best84 70 63 ↕B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–84 · Last 3 figs 84 70 63
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 843 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTHas moved up each time out, 63 to 70 to 84. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA at 15-1.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x Won/8 84 15-1 b Rail bid3/8;led;gamely 8/29 DMR 5f T fsMdSpWt Won/10 70 20-1 b 6-4deep;clear;held on 8/8 DMR 5½f D fsMdSpWt 5th/9 -5¾L 63 43-1 b Chased inside;no rally 6Daytona DiamondA. Ayuso · C. GainesAyuso · GainesA82 809-2Fair 6-114%
—82 80A3Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 82 80
Also today · Jockey R4: Princesa Moche 20-1, R6: Sir Rocket 6-1 · Trainer R6: Stylishlyacclaimed 6-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTLast start was a win, in an 8-horse race at DMR at 0.5-1. A 57-day gap since its last race.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.TROUBLED TRIP Bad stumbl; 3w-ins-5w last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 3d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/4 DMR 6f D fsGenPortinB100k Won/8 by 1¾ 82 0.5-1 Bad stumbl;3w-ins-5w 8/8 DMR 5½f D fsMdSpWt Won/9 80 11-1 Hard2load;4-2-3w;surge 7Free Closer▲H. Berrios · M. McCarthyBerrios · McCarthyA79 84 88►↕@trip 847-2Fair 5-117%
► Steady79 84 88 ↕@trip 84A▲ Rider upgrade (29% vs 25%) cutting back to a sprint2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–88 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 84 88
▲ Rider upgrade (29% vs 25%) cutting back to a sprintAlso today · Jockey R4: Bojaca Blessing 5-1, R6: Stylishlyacclaimed 6-1 · Trainer R6: Poor Connection 9-2Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 7 furlongs. An 88 top number against a 84 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 1 1/16 D OakLeaf G2 4th/6 -4L 79 6.9-1 3wd;bid3deep;faded 9/5 DMR 7f D DMrDeb G1 4th/9 -6½L 84 8.9-1 3-4wide; no rally 8/2 DMR 5½f D fsCTBAB100k Won/6 88 0.8-1 Surge clear;geared dwn 8Ember Royale▲▲A. Aguilar · J. BondeAguilar · BondeA956-5Fair 7-541%
—95A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early pace1Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 95
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early paceWON LASTOwns the highest recent figure here at 95. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and stakes nongraded now.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 15 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA 6f D fsMdSpWt Won/9 95 2.9-1 Stp slw;rush up;crushd 9Stay Bossy▼M. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · MiyadiC76 74 73▲+730-1Fair 50-12%
▲ Up +7 · career best76 74 73C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 76 74 73
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Best recent figure is 76, well under the 84 par for this level. Moves up from optional claiming to stakes nongraded.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 4th/8 -5L 76 5.7-1 2-3wide; needed more 9/4 DMR 6f D fsGenPortinB100k 3rd/8 -1L 74 5.9-1 2w-ins;bid btwn;flattn 8/2 DMR 5½f D fsCTBAB100k 2nd/6 -9½L 73 9.4-1 3-2-4w;rally;best rest 10TashieV. Espinoza · A. GarciaEspinoza · GarciaC63 81 74▼▼-1430-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -1463 81 74CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 63 81 74
Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and stakes nongraded now.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6½f D fsOC50000n1x 6th/8 -9L 63 2.0-1 b 3wd into str;no factor 9/4 DMR 6f D fsGenPortinB100k 2nd/8 -1¼L 81 4.6-1 b Ins-2w;angled;outkickd 7/18 DMR 5f D fsMdSpWt Won/9 74 15-1 b Inside; drew away 1/16 11Palo Alto Baby▼E. Esquivel · P. MillerEsquivel · MillerB7915-1Fair 20-14%
—79B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 79
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 8460D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST3rd of 29 at 5F on Oct 24, in :59.80. Off 72 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/20 DMR 5½f D fsMd50000 Won/9 79 2.0-1 b Vied3deep;shook free 12Strident Miss▼W. Orantes · P. CapestroOrantes · CapestroC63 70 71▼▼-830-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -863 70 71C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 63 70 71
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 843 WORKS IN 30 DAYSTrending the wrong way on speed, 71 to 70 to 63. Off 57 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 7d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/4 DMR 6f D fsGenPortinB100k 6th/8 -3¾L 63 23-1 b In range 2-4wd;weaknd 8/2 DMR 5½f D fsCTBAB100k 3rd/6 -7½L 70 9.1-1 b Bpd;press;chsd2-3w;wkn 7/17 DMR 5f D fsMdSpWt Won/10 by 1½ 71 40-1 b 3-4wide; up at wire
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SWL · RACE 5
UPCOMINGGld St Juvenile F.
Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #8 Ember Royale (early speed, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 95. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Free Closer at 7-2. Use #6 Daytona Diamond in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 EMBER ROYALE (6-5) — our number agrees.
- #8 EMBER ROYALE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (35.3% to their 35.8%).
- #7 FREE CLOSER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 17.5%).
- #6 DAYTONA DIAMOND — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.3% to their 14.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Ms Grainger Danger; pressure from #8 Ember Royale, #11 Palo Alto Baby; the shape helps #6 Daytona Diamond, #9 Stay Bossy; and works against #3 Lihue Princess, #4 Ms Grainger Danger, #8 Ember Royale.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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