R5 Charles Town · Allowance · $34,100 purse

9:02 PM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $34,100 · 7 runners9:02 PM · 4½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $34K · Allowance · $34,100 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Noble RulingL. Reynolds · T. GramsReynolds · GramsB61 75 73▼▼-12@trip 824-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1261 75 73@trip 82B

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 75 73

Jockey L C Reynolds 32% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Timothy C Grams 34% career 4-for-39 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Knight Sage 2-1 · Trainer R6: Knight Sage 2-1

9/16 board here

Runs for $34,100 today after a $75,000 race last time. Finished 8th in an 8-horse race at CT, beaten 12 lengths.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Stdy2x1st; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 107d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 9 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD L C Reynolds from post 1 here: 11 wins, 41 top-3 in 79 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	7f D	sWVRusRdBCB75k	8th/8 -12L	61	53-1	b L	Stdy2x1st; faltered
9/25	CT	6½f D	Alw n2x	2nd/6 -3L	75	2.9-1	b L	Hop st;rate3w;chased
8/29	CT	7f D	Alw n2x	4th/6 -1¾L	73	19-1	b L	Vied2w3/8;faded lane

2Zealous StormE. Greenidge · J. PooleGreenidge · PooleB76 66 68▲+38-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +376 66 68B
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 76 66 68
Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Attractive Soul 7-2, R4: Arapaho Nation 4-1 · Trainer R3: Aspiring Queen 15-1, R3: Attractive Soul 7-2, R4: Arapaho Nation 4-1, this race: Fiction 20-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 5-horse allowance race at MNR at 0.6-1. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 191d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/8 MNR 5½f D Alw n2x Won/5 76 0.6-1 b L Driving
8/24 MNR 5½f D sOC20000n4lc 2nd/4 -2L 66 0.5-1 b L Fractious gate pressed
8/2 MNR 6f D sOC20000n4lc Won/2 68 0.5-1 b L Clear won in hand;
3Fiction▼S. Diaz Jr. · J. PooleDiaz Jr. · PooleC75 61 60▲▲+1020-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best75 61 60C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 823
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 75 61 60
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Sunday Jr Diaz 33% career 5-for-69 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jami C Poole 29% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Ekati Indian 15-1, R4: Victory Song 9-2, R6: Don't Get Cute 10-1 · Trainer R3: Aspiring Queen 15-1, R3: Attractive Soul 7-2, R4: Arapaho Nation 4-1, this race: Zealous Storm 8-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6 furlongs race. Has moved up each time out, 60 to 61 to 75.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 21 (4F in :48.20), 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 MNR 6f D MSW Won/7 75 1.1-1 b L Driving
8/10 MNR 1m D MSW 2nd/7 by hd 61 2.0-1 b L Drifted wide top lane
7/27 MNR 1m T MCL 25k 3rd/8 60 2.9-1 b L Bore in

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/8	MNR	5½f D	Alw n2x	Won/5	76	0.6-1	b L	Driving
8/24	MNR	5½f D	sOC20000n4lc	2nd/4 -2L	66	0.5-1	b L	Fractious gate pressed
8/2	MNR	6f D	sOC20000n4lc	Won/2	68	0.5-1	b L	Clear won in hand;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	MNR	6f D	MSW	Won/7	75	1.1-1	b L	Driving
8/10	MNR	1m D	MSW	2nd/7 by hd	61	2.0-1	b L	Drifted wide top lane
7/27	MNR	1m T	MCL 25k	3rd/8	60	2.9-1	b L	Bore in

4Tico GrandeV. Rodriguez · P. AndersonRodriguez · AndersonA65 89 84▼▼-21↕@trip 841-1Fair 8-539%▼▼ Big drop -2165 89 84 ↕@trip 84A1

Card model 39% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–89 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 89 84

Jockey V Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-51 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Patricia R Anderson 33% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

★ FASTEST WORK9/10 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 85 for the next best. Has won 3 of 8 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (3F in :34.80), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 5 wins, 9 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD V Rodriguez from post 4 here: 19 wins, 52 top-3 in 162 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	7f D	sWVOnJcBCl75k	8th/10 -8L	65	1.5-1	b L	Vied3w3/8;weakened
9/17	CT	6½f D	sOC20000b	Won/9	89	1.3-1	b L	Stifled bid1/8;gamely
8/28	CT	4½f D	sLstEnchtmt50k	3rd/7 -2½L	84	4.3-1	b L	Off rail 1/4 pole; bid

5Joker Went WildLSB. Weatherly · C. EspositoWeatherly · EspositoB76 62 60▲▲+1020-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1076 62 60BLS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Last 3 figs 76 62 60

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Bailey Weatherly 28% career · Trainer Christi Lynn Esposito 14% career

CLASS DROP

Changes barns, from Juan Pablo Silva to Christi Lynn Esposito. Figures are climbing: 60, 62, 76 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	MNR	6f D	Clm 4k n2xc	2nd/6	76	0.7-1	b L	Run down closing yards
9/3	RP	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	4th/7 -7½L	62	4.6-1	b L	Sttld bk; kept to task
8/14	DMR	5½f D	Clm 12k	7th/7 -6L	60	3.7-1	b L	Vie6deep;chs4-3w;wknd

6Penguin's PrideA. Bocachica · J. RuncoBocachica · RuncoA63 79 39▼-4↕@trip 843-1Fair 7-223%▼ Down -463 79 39 ↕@trip 84A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 39–83 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 79 39

Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Jeff C Runco 39% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R4: Salty Lime 5-1, R7: Audible Storm 1-1, R8: Sutherland 3-1 · Trainer R2: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R2: Tornado Warning 7-2, R7: Audible Storm 1-1, R7: Annapolis Road 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/5 board here

Gets a new rider, Arnaldo Bocachica replacing Angel Cruz. Purse drops from $75,000 to $34,100 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Aug 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 6 here: 84 wins, 188 top-3 in 341 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	7f D	sWVRusRdBCB75k	6th/8 -10L	63	13-1	b L	Scrubbed ins;weakend
8/27	CT	4½f D	sAlw35300n3l	Won/7	79	0.9-1	b L	Stalk3w;kept to task
7/18	CT	7f D	sRGLeavitt75k	6th/6 -10L	39	2.0-1	L	Tangled st; weakened

7Bold BoomerM. Mawing · T. WilhelmMawing · WilhelmA75 78 73►@trip 7910-1Fair 15-16%► Steady75 78 73@trip 79A

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 79 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 78 73

Jockey M A Mawing 25% career · Trainer Tabitha M Wilhelm 21% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

8/12 board here

Purse drops from $75,000 to $34,100 against its last start. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 90 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 12 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CT	4½f D	sWVDs4CsBC75k	5th/7 -5½L	75	74-1	b L	Chased4w1/8;empty
9/26	CT	4½f D	Alw n1x	2nd/9 -2¾L	78	11-1	b L	Chased4w1/4;rallied
8/28	CT	4½f D	sLstEnchtmt50k	6th/7 -4L	73	77-1	b L	Btw; 5wd; no impact

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Allowance · $34,100 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$34,100

Post

9:02 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 39%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Tico Grande (early speed, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 65 · 89 · 84. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #6 Penguin's Pride at 3-1. Use #3 Fiction in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 TICO GRANDE (1-1) — our number agrees.
#4 TICO GRANDE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (37.8% to their 40.1%).
#6 PENGUIN'S PRIDE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.8% to their 20.0%).
#1 NOBLE RULING — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 16.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 FICTION (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.8%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Tico Grande; pressure from #6 Penguin's Pride, #5 Joker Went Wild; and works against #2 Zealous Storm, #4 Tico Grande, #5 Joker Went Wild.

Lead

4Tico Grande986Penguin's Pride955Joker Went Wild922Zealous Storm90

Press

1Noble Ruling937Bold Boomer883Fiction86

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Tico Grande

Penguin's Pride

Noble Ruling

Joker Went Wild

Zealous Storm

Bold Boomer

Fiction

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fiction

Joker Went Wild

Zealous Storm

Noble Ruling

Tico Grande

Penguin's Pride

Bold Boomer

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8)

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