R2 Charles Town · State-Bred Allowance · $35,100 purse

7:32 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $35,100 · 7 runners7:32 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $35K · State-Bred Allowance · $35,100 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Boundforabruisin▲A. Bocachica · J. RuncoBocachica · RuncoA84 66 64▲▲+18@trip 847-5Fair 7-543%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best84 66 64@trip 84A▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 791

Card model 43% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 66 64

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 79

Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 20-for-85 on dirt this meet (24%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Jeff C Runco 39% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Salty Lime 5-1, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, R7: Audible Storm 1-1, R8: Sutherland 3-1 · Trainer this race: Tornado Warning 7-2, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, R7: Audible Storm 1-1, R7: Annapolis Road 6-1

6/10 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 76 next best. Has moved up each time out, 64 to 66 to 84.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 97d ago)

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 1 here: 69 wins, 194 top-3 in 317 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	CT	1 1/16 D	sAlw37600n4l	2nd/7 -5L	84	12-1	L	Lone pursuer; willing
10/2	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n1x	2nd/9 -5½L	66	2.1-1	L	Bid5w1/8;willingly
8/27	CT	7f D	sAlw34100n1x	4th/9 -8L	64	4.0-1	L	Hop start;5w;improved

2Bull Rider▲J. Davis · I. BarahonaDavis · BarahonaB76 70 53▲▲+11↕8-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best76 70 53 ↕B▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–76 · Last 3 figs 76 70 53

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 6-for-60 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Isaac Barahona 14% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Monkey Wrench 20-1, R8: Dither 20-1 · Trainer R4: Monkey Wrench 20-1

WON LASTJky 7/37 from post 2

Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at CT. Moves up from $5,000 claiming to allowance.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 2 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 37 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	CT	7f D	Clm 5k n2x	Won/8	76	7.5-1	b L	Controlled pace;drivin
9/10	CT	6½f D	Clm 5k n2x	5th/8 -½L	70	2.3-1	b L	Vied2w;yielded late
8/27	CT	7f D	sAlw34100n1x	6th/9 -6L	53	20-1	b L	Stumble;chase;faded

3Paint the Alley▼J. Diaz · A. GomezDiaz · GomezB68 69 71►≡8-1Fair 10-19%► Steady68 69 71 ≡B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 793

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–71 · Last 3 figs 68 69 71

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-71 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Analia R Gomez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Annapolis Road 6-1

CLASS UP

Raises its level, $15,000 claiming last time and allowance now. Stretches out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 63d back

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Jose Y Diaz from post 3 here: 5 wins, 11 top-3 in 28 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CT	7f D	Clm 15k n2x	5th/9 -5½L	68	38-1	b L	Save ground;evenly
10/2	CT	6½f D	Clm 10k n2x	4th/7 -3L	69	7.3-1	b L	Bid5w1/4;lf-ld;flatten
9/11	CT	6½f D	sClm10000n3l	Won/8	71	7.7-1	b L	3w1/8;lef-ld;clr drivn

4You Name Him▼A. Lopez · J. CarlisleLopez · CarlisleB60 66 53►4-1Fair 8-112%► Steady60 66 53B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 60 66 53
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Antonio Lopez 36% career ★ 6-for-23 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 31 · Trainer John C Carlisle 22% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet
Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6½ furlongs last time. A 66 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 118d ago
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
RECORD Antonio Lopez from post 4 here: 5 wins, 23 top-3 in 60 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 CT 6½f D sAlw34100n1x 4th/9 -9½L 60 18-1 L Brutal trip; improved
9/19 CT 7f D sMdSpWt Won/8 66 3.2-1 L 4w;swpt by1/8;driving
8/6 CT 7f D sMdSpWt 5th/8 -7L 53 11-1 L Rank gate;bmp;empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n1x	4th/9 -9½L	60	18-1	L	Brutal trip; improved
9/19	CT	7f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8	66	3.2-1	L	4w;swpt by1/8;driving
8/6	CT	7f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -7L	53	11-1	L	Rank gate;bmp;empty

5Musical Entourage▼J. Raspaldo · J. ContrerasRaspaldo · ContrerasA69 67 71►≡6-1Fair 12-18%► Steady69 67 71 ≡A▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–71 · Last 3 figs 69 67 71

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Javier Contreras 36% career 2-for-27 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Dixiespeprmintwist 3-1, R6: My Max 5-2, R8: Williston Warrior 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK7/12 board here

Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start. A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, allowance today.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 15; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 5 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 21 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	CT	6½f D	Clm 5k n2x	2nd/7 -2L	69	4.1-1	b L	4w;sustained rally mis
10/1	CT	7f D	Clm 5k n2x	4th/8 -8½L	67	4.3-1	b L	Outrun; mild interest
9/10	CT	6½f D	Clm 5k n2x	2nd/8 -3L	71	18-1	b L	Swung6w1/8;all-out plc

6Candy Man CanC. Ulloa · A. JacksonUlloa · JacksonC60 73 61▼-5@trip 6415-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -560 73 61@trip 64C2

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 73 61

Jockey Carlos Joan Ulloa 24% career · Trainer Angelo G Jackson 31% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)

Finished 6th in a 7-horse allowance race at CT, beaten 16 lengths. A 73 top number against a 79 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 70d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 18 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	CT	1 1/16 D	sAlw37600n4l	6th/7 -16L	60	20-1	b L	Press ins1/2;weakened
10/2	CT	6½f D	Clm 10k n2x	2nd/7	73	19-1	b L	Sent clr1/4;ins game
9/18	CT	6½f D	Clm 15k n2x	6th/9 -8¼L	61	15-1	b L	Off pace4w;empty str

7Tornado Warning▼W. Ebow · J. RuncoEbow · RuncoA68 65 68►≡7-2Fair 7-113%► Steady68 65 68 ≡A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–68 · Last 3 figs 68 65 68

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Warren Iii Ebow 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jeff C Runco 39% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Boundforabruisin 7-5, R5: Penguin's Pride 3-1, R7: Audible Storm 1-1, R7: Annapolis Road 6-1

3/5 board here

Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time. A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swiped st; 5w; willingly. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 55d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	CT	7f D	sAlw34100n2l	3rd/7 -2L	68	26-1	b L	Swiped st;5w;willingly
9/18	CT	6½f D	sAlw34100n2l	7th/9 -9½L	65	32-1	b L	Sluggish st;no threat
7/25	CT	6½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/7 by 5	68	0.6-1	b L	4w;rallied up in time

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #2 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 2

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $35,100 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$35,100

Post

7:32 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 43%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 103.83

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Boundforabruisin (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 84 · 66 · 64. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Candy Man Can at 15-1. Use #3 Paint The Alley in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 BOUNDFORABRUISIN (7-5) — our number agrees.
#1 BOUNDFORABRUISIN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (34.9% to their 32.9%).
#7 TORNADO WARNING — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 17.5%).
#4 YOU NAME HIM — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 CANDY MAN CAN (15-1) — our fair 6.0% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Bull Rider; the shape helps #1 Boundforabruisin, #3 Paint The Alley; and works against #2 Bull Rider.

Lead

2Bull Rider82

Press

none

Stalk

1Boundforabruisin773Paint The Alley77

6Candy Man Can787Tornado Warning734You Name Him725Musical Entourage69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Bull Rider

Boundforabruisin

Paint The Alley

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

You Name Him

Musical Entourage

Tornado Warning

Candy Man Can

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