R7 Charles Town · State-Bred Allowance · $35,300 purse

10:02 AM ET · 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $35,300 · 7 runners10:02 AM · 4½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $35K · State-Bred Allowance · $35,300 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Harley SiouxV. Rodriguez · W. StraughnRodriguez · StraughnC45 55 55▼▼-13@trip 7620-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1345 55 55@trip 76C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 45 55 55

Jockey V Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-52 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer William E Straughn 16% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Ran The Red 3-1, R3: Stella's Candy 12-1

180D+ LAYOFF

Back after 331 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Best recent figure is 65, well under the 80 par for this level.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD V Rodriguez from post 1 here: 14 wins, 60 top-3 in 167 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
12/4	CT	4½f D	sAlw32800n3l	7th/9 -4L	45	97-1	b L	Fractious gate;gaveway
10/9	CT	4½f D	sAlw32800n3l	7th/7 -5¼L	55	41-1	b L	Chase btw1/4;gaveway
9/11	CT	4½f D	sAlw32800n3l	6th/7 -5L	55	11-1	b L	Roused3w;weakened

2Easy PassC. Hiraldo · J. GrovesHiraldo · GrovesA77 63 72▲▲+9@trip 785-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +977 63 72@trip 78A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 63 72

Jockey Christian Hiraldo 29% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Janice Groves 18% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Back to 4½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race. Finished 2nd last time in a 10-horse allowance race at CT.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

SHARP LAST OUT Ridden out1/4; willing last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 259d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Christian Hiraldo from post 2 here: 17 wins, 68 top-3 in 169 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CT	6½f D	sAlw35300n3l	2nd/10	77	20-1	b L	Ridden out1/4;willing
8/27	CT	4½f D	sAlw35300n3l	6th/7 -2L	63	5.3-1	b L	Press4w1/8;empty str
8/13	CT	4½f D	OC 15k n1x	2nd/6 -2L	72	3.3-1	b L	Stp slw;3w1/8;rallied

3Romantic Warrior▲G. Larrosa · W. Lewis Jr.Larrosa · Lewis Jr.A80 30 44▲▲+30↕@trip 805-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +30 · career best80 30 44 ↕@trip 80A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 802

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +30 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 30 44

▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 80

Jockey G Larrosa 29% career 3-for-26 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer William R Jr Lewis 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

WON LAST8/12 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 4-horse optional claiming race at CT. Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 78 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Bobble st; 4w1/4; drivin last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 16d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD G Larrosa from post 3 here: 9 wins, 40 top-3 in 95 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	CT	4½f D	sOC20000b	Won/4	80	5.4-1	L	Bobble st;4w1/4;drivin
9/19	CT	6½f D	sAlw35300n3l	10th/10 -10L	30	28-1	b L	Pressed to1/4;retreate
8/6	CT	6½f D	OC 25k b	6th/6 -5¼L	44	26-1	b L	Vied2w1/2;gave way

4Malibu Son★L. Reynolds · T. GramsReynolds · GramsA67 64 72►≡@trip 819-5Fair 8-537%► Steady67 64 72 ≡@trip 81A★ Best at the trip 811

Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–72 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 64 72

★ Best at the trip 81

Jockey L C Reynolds 32% career 5-for-31 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Timothy C Grams 34% career 5-for-41 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Mi Dinero 10-1 · Trainer R6: Sailor Sam 6-1, R6: Mi Dinero 10-1, this race: Fiber Rocks 6-1

60D LAYOFF6/9 board here

Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. A 72 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 245d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD L C Reynolds from post 4 here: 8 wins, 31 top-3 in 63 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/27	CT	4½f D	sAlw35300n3l	3rd/7 -3¾L	67	3.7-1	L	Lost path chute;improv
8/15	CT	7f D	sAlw35300n3l	8th/9 -1L	64	4.3-1	L	Bmp;chase2w;g-way
7/23	CT	6½f D	sAlw35300n3l	2nd/8	72	4.1-1	L	Pressured pace;game

5Mr Mahomes▼M. Chilo · A. NaupacChilo · NaupacB68 60 56▲▲+11@trip 7110-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1168 60 56@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 80

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 60 56

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Maximo Chilo 25% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Alexander V Naupac 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Speedy Bubbles 9-5, R3: Malibu Candy 12-1, R5: Thunder Pass 15-1, R8: Barapha 30-1

WON LAST

A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, allowance today. Has moved up each time out, 56 to 60 to 68.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 49d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Maximo Chilo from post 5 here: 9 wins, 32 top-3 in 120 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	CT	4½f D	sClm5000n2l	Won/7	68	3.0-1	L	Widened1/4;driving
8/1	CT	4½f D	sClm5000n2lc	5th/8 -2½L	60	3.9-1	L	Bmp;press;lef-ld;even
6/11	CT	4½f D	sClm10000n2l	5th/9 -8L	56	11-1	L	Bid3w1/8;no late kick

6Fiber RocksC. Lopez · T. GramsLopez · GramsB67 59 78▼-4@trip 786-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -467 59 78@trip 78B

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 59 78

Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career ★ 16-for-60 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Timothy C Grams 34% career 5-for-41 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Cuppa Jimmy Gold 1-1, R6: Sailor Sam 6-1 · Trainer R6: Sailor Sam 6-1, R6: Mi Dinero 10-1, this race: Malibu Son 9-5

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKJky 28/84 from post 6

Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 92). Fastest 3F work of its morning on Oct 9 (:36.20), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.20 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 6 here: 28 wins, 49 top-3 in 84 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/27	CT	4½f D	sAlw35300n3l	4th/7 -1L	67	18-1	b L	Chased ins1/4;evenly
7/2	CT	4½f D	sAlw35300n3l	5th/6 -4¾L	59	31-1	b L	Off pace4w;empty str
6/5	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n2l	Won/7	78	0.6-1	b L	Pace ins;determined up

7CharlieniteS. Diaz Jr. · C. McKeeDiaz Jr. · McKeeB65 76 73▼-3@trip 779-2Fair 6-114%▼ Down -365 76 73@trip 77B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 76 73

Jockey Sunday Jr Diaz 33% career 5-for-73 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Cynthia E McKee 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%)

8/10 board here

Cuts back from 6½ furlongs to 4½ furlongs. Carries 122 pounds, 4 less than last time.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 13 (4F in :46.80), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CT	6½f D	sAlw35300n3l	5th/10 -7L	65	12-1	b L	Chase ins3/8;faded str
8/27	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n2l	Won/6	76	0.8-1	b L	Vie ins1/4;kicked away
8/15	CT	4½f D	sAlw34100n1x	2nd/8 -1¼L	73	17-1	b L	Hit gate;4w;rally miss

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHARLES TOWN · RACE 7

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $35,300 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$35,300

Post

10:02 AM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 37%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Malibu Son (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 67 · 64 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Romantic Warrior at 5-2. Use #7 Charlienite in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 MALIBU SON (9-5) — our number agrees.
#4 MALIBU SON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.0% to their 28.1%).
#3 ROMANTIC WARRIOR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 22.4%).
#7 CHARLIENITE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Easy Pass; pressure from #3 Romantic Warrior, #6 Fiber Rocks; and works against #2 Easy Pass, #3 Romantic Warrior, #6 Fiber Rocks.

Lead

2Easy Pass983Romantic Warrior966Fiber Rocks92

Press

7Charlienite935Mr Mahomes921Harley Sioux884Malibu Son82

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Easy Pass

Romantic Warrior

Charlienite

Mr Mahomes

Fiber Rocks

Harley Sioux

Malibu Son

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mr Mahomes

Romantic Warrior

Easy Pass

Charlienite

Malibu Son

Fiber Rocks

Harley Sioux

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