★ Distance horse: #1 Lady Yellowstone (20-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 69 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.
1Lady Yellowstone★LSS. Morales · K. ShearerMorales · ShearerB59 59 65▼-3≡@trip 6920-1Fair 15-16%
▼ Down -359 59 65 ≡@trip 69B★ Best at the trip 69LSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 59–65 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 59 65
★ Best at the trip 69LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Silvino Morales 32% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Krista A Shearer 20% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetLASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORKLast out was 5th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at LBG. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 68 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 LBG 7f D Farewell13k 5th/7 -11L 59 12-1 b Late rally 9/27 LBG 7f D frBCupFM11k 5th/6 -4L 59 27-1 b Outrun 9/12 LBG -6f D Alw nc 5th/6 -5¼L 65 18-1 b Outrun 2Call DarlaK. Natera · W. SmithNatera · SmithA71 61 65▲▲+88-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best71 61 65ACard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 71 61 65
Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% careerAlso today · Jockey R2: Rough Customer 8-1, R3: El Rocknroll 10-1, R4: Red Charity 6-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Wocka Wocka 8-1, R2: Rough Customer 8-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1LASIX 1STWON LASTRaises its level, allowance last time and $6,000 claiming now. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 71, with 70 next best.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LBG -6f D Alw b Won/7 by ½ 71 6.6-1 b Driving 9/20 LBG -5½f D Alw b 4th/6 -6L — 13-1 b Mild bid 9/8 ASD 6f D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/9 -5½L 61 4.8-1 b L 4-wd turn; show rally 3KarensnotimpressedA. Perez · D. CondileniosPerez · CondileniosA63 66 71▼-3@trip 571-1Fair 8-537%
▼ Down -363 66 71@trip 57A2Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 66 71
Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 18-for-67 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Dino Condilenios 26% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R3: Riding In Style 5-2, R4: Kamal 8-1, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Chablis 10-1★ FASTEST WORKOwns the highest recent figure here at 71. Figures have slipped: 71, 66, 63 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Hopped; chsd4w; bid), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 98 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 4th/7 -4¼L 63 1.1-1 L Hopped;chsd4w;bid 9/20 CTD 6f D Clm 6k n2lc Won/8 66 0.6-1 L Stalked;drew clear 9/4 CML 6f D Clm 6k n2lc 2nd/9 by hd 71 8.2-1 L Stlkd 7w;outkicked 4Brodys Souvenir▲N. Prescod · P. JarvisPrescod · JarvisA67 67 70►6-5Fair 8-538%
► Steady67 67 70A▲ Lone speed on early pace1Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 67 67 70
▲ Lone speed on early paceJockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Pat Jarvis 32% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)Also today · Jockey R3: N Two O 10-1, R5: Chaotic Sky 9-5, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1, R7: Affair 20-1 +1 more★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board hereBeaten a neck for 2nd in a 7-horse $6,000 claiming race at CTD. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 93).
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 48d back)RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 2nd/7 by nk 67 2.6-1 b L Led;outkicked 10/2 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 5th/8 -3½L 67 24-1 b L Drove4w;late bid 9/19 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 2nd/8 by hd 70 19-1 b L Lacked kick needed 5Casually ClassyC. Vidaurri · K. OberholtzerVidaurri · OberholtzerB63 68 57▲+3@trip 3310-1Fair 10-19%
▲ Up +363 68 57@trip 33B3Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 33 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 68 57
Jockey Cesar Vidaurri 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Kevin Oberholtzer 26% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R5: Shocking Malice 10-1, R6: Biz Appeal 20-1 · Trainer R5: Shocking Malice 10-1, R6: Biz Appeal 20-1New trainer: Lise Pruitt had it last time, Kevin Oberholtzer now. A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.60 on Apr 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/29 ASD 5½f D Clm 7k n3l 4th/5 -1½L 63 5.1-1 L Svd grd; brief rly 9/9 ASD 6f D Clm 5k n3l 4th/6 -½L 68 18-1 L Adv insd; bid str 8/26 ASD 6f D Clm 5k n3l 4th/5 -6½L 57 6.8-1 L Frcd pace otsd; tired
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #4 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CTD · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $6,000
Claiming $6,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 81.89
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #4 Brodys Souvenir (early speed, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 67 · 67 · 70. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Karensnotimpressed at 1-1. Use #5 Casually Classy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 KARENSNOTIMPRESSED (1-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 KARENSNOTIMPRESSED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (39.3% to their 41.5%).
- #4 BRODYS SOUVENIR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (37.3% to their 37.7%).
- #2 CALL DARLA — our #5 number, a price play — we're at 9.9%, the board 9.2%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 LADY YELLOWSTONE (20-1) — our fair 5.0% is above the morning line's 4.0%; supported by: last out: "Late rally" — finished with authority
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Brodys Souvenir; pressure from #3 Karensnotimpressed; the shape helps #2 Call Darla, #3 Karensnotimpressed, #5 Casually Classy; and works against #4 Brodys Souvenir.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / ROLLING DOUBLE / PICK 4 (RACES 1-4)
BET OPTIONS
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