R8 CTD · Optional Claiming $17,500

11:39 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $21,500 · 9 runners11:39 PM · 7f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $22K · Optional Claiming $17,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #8 Inxpress (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 91 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1HoaxR. Balgobin · M. EdwardsBalgobin · EdwardsB72 65 79▼-4@trip 755-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -472 65 79@trip 75B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 65 79

Jockey Richard Balgobin 27% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Makayla Edwards 21% career ★ 7-for-21 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 33

Also today · Jockey R3: Gregarious Gal 7-2, R5: Max Booster 10-1, R6: Dri Saddle 10-1 · Trainer R3: Sauce Me A Slice 3-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST2/4 board here

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse optional claiming race at CTD at 3-1. Figure of 83 on the record sits above the 75 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 55 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	Won/10	72	3.0-1	b L	Showedway;held safely
9/25	CTD	7f D	OC 25k n4l	6th/8 -½L	65	14-1	b L	Earlyspeed;gaveway
9/11	CML	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	2nd/5	79	3.1-1	b L	Held under drive

2Moonlit CourageM. Malvaez · J. BrownMalvaez · BrownB66 74 82▼▼-11@trip 826-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1166 74 82@trip 82B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 74 82

Jockey Mauricio Malvaez 20% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R3: Don't Ignore Me 8-1, R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1 · Trainer R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R4: Kamal 8-1, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R5: Stone House 8-1

CLASS UP

New trainer: Thomas Kenway had it last time, Jim R Brown now. Trending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 74 to 66.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumpdd; late rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3lc	3rd/10 -6½L	66	2.8-1	L	Bumpdd;late rally
9/25	CTD	6½f D	OC 12k	Won/6 by ½	74	1.8-1	L	Stalked2w;drew clear
8/28	CML	7f D	Clm 12k b	Won/5	82	3.8-1	L	Alertly;going away

3Bound For HeavenE. Gonzalez · J. ConeyGonzalez · ConeyA53 73 82▼▼-28↕@trip 833-1Fair 4-120%▼▼ Big drop -2853 73 82 ↕@trip 83A2

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -28 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–87 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 73 82

Jockey Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez 33% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Jason Coney 29% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Pass The Gold 9-2, R4: Dale's Magic 7-2

Runs for $21,500 today after a $50,000 race last time. Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 85 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 76d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CTD	1⅛m D	FndrDstH50k	5th/5 -15L	53	10-1	L	Briefly close; faded
9/25	CTD	7f D	OC 25k n4l	Won/8 by ½	73	1.3-1	L	Steadied;won driving
9/7	CML	7f D	Clm 32k	Won/6 by nk	82	1.6-1	L	Settled3w;prevailed

4Goldie MonroeA. Perez · G. OlaldePerez · OlaldeA70 80 81▼▼-9@trip 767-2Fair 6-115%▼▼ Big drop -970 80 81@trip 76A

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 80 81

Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 18-for-67 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Geovani Olalde 14% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Karensnotimpressed 1-1, R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R3: Riding In Style 5-2, R4: Kamal 8-1 +1 more

Figures have slipped: 81, 80, 70 over its last three. An 81 in its last five clears the 75 par for this level.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 4-5w; closed gamely. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	2nd/10 -4L	70	2.2-1	L	4-5w;closed gamely
9/11	CML	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	Won/5 by 1	80	2.4-1	L	4-5w;surged;missed
8/1	CML	6f D	MSW	Won/5 by ½	81	3.2-1	L	Stlkd2-3w;drove clear

5Maturity Date▼J. Asencio · D. NicholsonAsencio · NicholsonC67 67 70▼-7@trip 8510-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -767 67 70@trip 85C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises1

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 67 70

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer David Nicholson 23% career 0-for-17 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: River Rock Fire 4-1, R4: Scuffle 4-5, R5: Last Harbor 8-5, R6: Come On Big Lou 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Scuffle 4-5, R6: Dura's Hawkeye 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK

3 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Drops from optional claiming to allowance optional claiming.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CTD	7f D	OC 25k n4l	5th/8 -5½L	67	11-1	L	Trailed;3w;fin well
9/7	CML	7f D	Clm 32k	5th/6 -5¼L	67	4.1-1	L	Bumped;5w;lacked bid
8/22	CML	1 1/16 D	NrthldDfH Stk	5th/7 -11L	70	26-1	L	Passed tiring

6Magic MollyS. Morales · M. SnowMorales · SnowC62 68 71▼-7≡@trip 7120-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -762 68 71 ≡@trip 71C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 62–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 68 71

Jockey Silvino Morales 32% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Mel Snow 23% career ★ 5-for-22 on dirt this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Lady Yellowstone 20-1, R4: Chablis 10-1 · Trainer R3: Riding In Style 5-2

Gets a new rider, Silvino Morales replacing Brian Boodramsingh. Trending the wrong way on speed, 71 to 68 to 62.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	5th/10 -6L	62	12-1	b L	3-4w;bid;gave way
8/29	CML	6½f D	OC 17k n2x	4th/8 -2¼L	68	3.9-1	b L	Stalked4w;mild rally
8/15	CML	7f D	OC 17k n2x	2nd/8 -1½L	71	2.0-1	b L	Stalked;steadily 2nd

7Gigi's AddictionN. Prescod · A. WebsterPrescod · WebsterC64 76 67▼-7@trip 6920-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -764 76 67@trip 69C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 76 67

Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Alfred Webster 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Brodys Souvenir 6-5, R3: N Two O 10-1, R5: Chaotic Sky 9-5, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1 +1 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time. Carries 120 pounds, 4 less than last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped; trailed last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 10d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n2x	5th/5 -5¾L	64	0.8-1	b L	Bumped;trailed
8/29	CML	6½f D	OC 17k n2x	2nd/8 -¾L	76	12-1	b L	Rallied 4-5w;outfinish
8/15	CML	7f D	OC 17k n2x	5th/8 -3L	67	7.5-1	b L	Bumpd;gapped;tired

8Inxpress★LSK. Natera · K. KingstonNatera · KingstonB65 61 78▼▼-8↕@trip 9112-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -865 61 78 ↕@trip 91B★ Best at the trip 91LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–80 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 61 78
★ Best at the trip 91LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Karline Kingston 23% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Call Darla 8-1, R2: Rough Customer 8-1, R3: El Rocknroll 10-1, R4: Red Charity 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R3: Pass The Gold 9-2, R4: Dale's Magic 7-2
CLASS DROP
Has run 80 against a 75 par for the class. Finished 4th in a 10-horse optional claiming race at CTD, beaten 6½ lengths.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 43 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 CTD 6½f D OC 17k n3l 4th/10 -6½L 65 20-1 Bmpd;late rally
9/25 CTD 7f D OC 25k n4l 7th/8 -7L 61 13-1 3w;empty drive
8/14 CML 6f D OC 17k n3lc 2nd/6 -3L 78 1.2-1 Angled out; rallied

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	4th/10 -6½L	65	20-1	Bmpd;late rally
9/25	CTD	7f D	OC 25k n4l	7th/8 -7L	61	13-1	3w;empty drive
8/14	CML	6f D	OC 17k n3lc	2nd/6 -3L	78	1.2-1	Angled out; rallied

9Who's That BabyB. Boodramsingh · T. RycroftBoodramsingh · RycroftA67 80 80▼-6↕@trip 804-1Fair 7-113%▼ Down -667 80 80 ↕@trip 80A

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 80 80

Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-46 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tom Rycroft 36% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Sauce Me A Slice 3-1, R7: Annika's Song 9-2 · Trainer R6: Come On Big Lou 10-1

3/4 board here

Changes barns, from Gonzalo Anderson to Tom Rycroft. Worked 5F in 1:00.00 on Aug 8, 2nd of 18 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 17d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CTD	7f D	OC 25k n4lc	4th/8 -4L	67	4.2-1	L	Unhurried;improvedlate
9/7	CML	7f D	Clm 32k	2nd/6	80	9.9-1	b L	Setpace;outfinished
7/18	CML	6f D	OC 25k n4lc	Won/6	80	1.4-1	b L	Vied3-4w;edged clear

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $17,500

Field

9 runners

Purse

$21,500

Post

11:39 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 12%

Claiming $17,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 81.89

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Maturity Date (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 67 · 67 · 70. Backup is #3 Bound For Heaven at 3-1. Use #2 Moonlit Courage in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 BOUND FOR HEAVEN (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#3 BOUND FOR HEAVEN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.8% to their 20.1%).
#4 GOLDIE MONROE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 17.9%).
#9 WHO'S THAT BABY — our #7 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 16.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 MATURITY DATE (10-1) — our fair 8.7% is above the morning line's 7.3%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Hoax; pressure from #9 Who's That Baby, #6 Magic Molly; the shape helps #2 Moonlit Courage, #4 Goldie Monroe, #6 Magic Molly; and works against #1 Hoax, #9 Who's That Baby.

Lead

1Hoax979Who's That Baby86

Press

6Magic Molly904Goldie Monroe88

Stalk

7Gigi's Addiction812Moonlit Courage77

5Maturity Date808Inxpress793Bound For Heaven77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Hoax

Magic Molly

Goldie Monroe

Who's That Baby

Gigi's Addiction

Moonlit Courage

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Maturity Date

Bound For Heaven

Inxpress

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