R5 CTD · Claiming $6,000

10:18 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $12,500 · 7 runners10:18 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $6,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Last HarborJ. Asencio · T. RycroftAsencio · RycroftA72 69 71►@trip 728-5Fair 3-126%► Steady72 69 71@trip 72A3
Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 72 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 69 71
Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tim Rycroft 36% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: River Rock Fire 4-1, R4: Scuffle 4-5, R6: Come On Big Lou 10-1, R7: Gimlet 3-1 +1 more
Owns the highest recent figure here at 75. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 70 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b DNF — 5.3-1 Stmbld;LR;DNF;WO
9/25 CTD 6f D Clm 6k b 3rd/10 72 2.0-1 Tookpressure;worndown
9/5 CML 7f D Clm 6k b 3rd/10 -½L 69 3.9-1 Swung5w;rallied3rd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	DNF	—	5.3-1	Stmbld;LR;DNF;WO
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/10	72	2.0-1	Tookpressure;worndown
9/5	CML	7f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/10 -½L	69	3.9-1	Swung5w;rallied3rd

2Max Booster▼R. Balgobin · G. AndersonBalgobin · AndersonB66 56 54▲▲+10@trip 5910-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best66 56 54@trip 59B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 59 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 56 54

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Richard Balgobin 27% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-50 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Gregarious Gal 7-2, R6: Dri Saddle 10-1, R8: Hoax 5-1 · Trainer R6: Gingers Giant 5-2, R6: Dri Saddle 10-1, R7: Anothersunnyday 5-2

0/3 board here

Figures are climbing: 54, 56, 66 over its last three. Finished 5th in a 10-horse $6,000 claiming race at CTD, beaten 2¼ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 83d back)

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	5th/10 -2¼L	66	68-1	b L	Vied3w;empty drive
10/2	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	7th/8 -14L	56	17-1	b L	Setpace;faltered
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	9th/10 -7¾L	54	28-1	b L	Stalked;faltered

3Chickoutthebizz▼M. Malvaez · J. BrownMalvaez · BrownB57 59 71▼▼-8@trip 7110-1Fair 6-115%▼▼ Big drop -857 59 71@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 771

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 59 71

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Mauricio Malvaez 20% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R3: Don't Ignore Me 8-1, R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1 · Trainer R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R4: Kamal 8-1, this race: Stone House 8-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1

Drops from $8,000 claiming to $6,000 claiming. Beaten 11 lengths for 9th in a 10-horse $8,000 claiming race at CTD.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	9th/10 -11L	57	26-1	b L	4w;no threat
10/2	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	5th/8 -11L	59	4.8-1	b L	Prompted3w;yielded
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	4th/10 -¾L	71	6.1-1	b L	Lacked kick needed

4Stone HouseR. Balgobin · J. BrownBalgobin · BrownA65 63 70►≡@trip 708-1Fair 12-18%► Steady65 63 70 ≡@trip 70A

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–70 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 63 70

Jockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Just Like Lindsey 20-1 · Trainer R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R4: Kamal 8-1, this race: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1

LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

Stretches out from -6 furlongs to 6 furlongs. A step up in company: allowance before, $6,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 12; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	LBG	-6f D	Alw b	2nd/5 -2L	65	0.4-1	b	Well handled
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	6th/10 -7¾L	63	6.8-1	b L	Squeezed;wide;latebid
8/28	CML	6f D	Clm 6k b	4th/8 -3L	70	3.5-1	b L	Settled5w;flattened

5Chaotic Sky★N. Prescod · R. GrievesPrescod · GrievesA72 65 54▲▲+8@trip 739-5Fair 5-227%▲▲ Big jump +872 65 54@trip 73A★ Best at the trip 732
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 65 54
★ Best at the trip 73
Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Ron Grieves 26% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Brodys Souvenir 6-5, R3: N Two O 10-1, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1, R7: Affair 20-1 +1 more
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK
Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. 2nd last time, a neck back, in a field of 10.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 19 (4F in :47.60), 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 CTD 6f D Clm 6k b 2nd/10 by nk 72 6.2-1 4w;outfinished
8/28 CML 6f D Clm 12k b 4th/5 -9L 65 13-1 Bmpd;3w;gave way
7/24 CML 6f D Clm 12k b 6th/9 -12L 54 4.0-1 Squeezedout;empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	2nd/10 by nk	72	6.2-1	4w;outfinished
8/28	CML	6f D	Clm 12k b	4th/5 -9L	65	13-1	Bmpd;3w;gave way
7/24	CML	6f D	Clm 12k b	6th/9 -12L	54	4.0-1	Squeezedout;empty

6Sky Music▼R. Lunan · C. SmithLunan · SmithC65 63 67►≡@trip 6320-1Fair 15-16%► Steady65 63 67 ≡@trip 63C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–67 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 63 67

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Richard Lunan 25% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-53 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Trainer R3: N Two O 10-1, R3: Gregarious Gal 7-2, R6: Absolut John 10-1, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 68 against a 77 par. Worked 4F in :47.80 on Apr 20, 2nd of 29 at the distance.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 20d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	6th/10 -2¼L	65	109-1	b	Gained;ralliedinside
9/5	CML	7f D	Clm 6k b	7th/10 -2L	63	49-1	b	Chased;no threat
8/14	CML	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	3rd/7 -2L	67	5.4-1	b	4-w; mild rally

7Shocking Malice▼LSC. Vidaurri · K. OberholtzerVidaurri · OberholtzerB67 71 65►≡@trip 7210-1Fair 10-110%► Steady67 71 65 ≡@trip 72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 65–71 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 71 65

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77LS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Cesar Vidaurri 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Kevin Oberholtzer 26% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Casually Classy 10-1, R6: Biz Appeal 20-1 · Trainer R1: Casually Classy 10-1, R6: Biz Appeal 20-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

New trainer: Lise Pruitt had it last time, Kevin Oberholtzer now. Last start was a win, in a 4-horse $3,000 claiming race at ASD at 3.8-1.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 164 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	ASD	6f D	Clm 4k n1y	Won/4	67	3.8-1	L	Stlkd frcd pace insd
9/14	ASD	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/7 -2½L	71	5.0-1	L	Stkd duel btw hrs
8/26	ASD	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	4th/7 -4L	65	24-1	L	Off rail; lacked rly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $6,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$12,500

Post

10:18 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 15%

Claiming $6,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 69.06

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Chickoutthebizz (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 57 · 59 · 71. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #5 Chaotic Sky at 9-5. Use #1 Last Harbor in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 LAST HARBOR (8-5) — our number has it ranked #3.
#1 LAST HARBOR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (30.7% to their 32.8%).
#5 CHAOTIC SKY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (29.6% to their 30.4%).
#3 CHICKOUTTHEBIZZ — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 10.1%, the board 7.7%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 CHICKOUTTHEBIZZ (10-1) — our fair 10.1% is above the morning line's 7.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Chaotic Sky; pressure from #2 Max Booster, #1 Last Harbor; the shape helps #3 Chickoutthebizz, #7 Shocking Malice; and works against #1 Last Harbor, #2 Max Booster, #5 Chaotic Sky.

Lead

5Chaotic Sky922Max Booster901Last Harbor

Press

4Stone House846Sky Music80

Stalk

none

7Shocking Malice763Chickoutthebizz75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Chaotic Sky

Max Booster

Stone House

Sky Music

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Chickoutthebizz

Shocking Malice

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