R7 CTD · Optional Claiming $12,500

11:12 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $18,000 · 8 runners11:12 PM · 7½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $18K · Optional Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Kardinal Rose (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 72 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Starfall▼LSK. Trotman · C. RumseyTrotman · RumseyB57 62 80▼▼-16↕12-1Fair 15-17%▼▼ Big drop -1657 62 80 ↕B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–80 · Last 3 figs 57 62 80

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Keimar Trotman 27% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Cory Rumsey 15% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Alberta's Storm 6-1 · Trainer R6: Alberta's Storm 6-1

CLASS UP

Drops from optional claiming to optional claiming. Has run 80 against a 75 par for the class.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 147d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	8th/10 -6¾L	57	35-1	L	Earlyspeed;faded
9/25	CTD	6½f D	OC 12k	4th/6 -8L	62	5.8-1	L	Trailed;late rally
8/29	CML	7f D	OC 8k	3rd/8 -7L	80	3.5-1	L	Wide;stlked4w;clsdwell

2Spunoutofcontrol▲A. Marti · W. LeechMarti · LeechA80 75 69▲▲+12@trip 676-1Fair 8-112%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best80 75 69@trip 67A▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 75

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 69

▲ Last fig 80 at/above par 75

Jockey Alexander Marti 23% career ★ 8-for-17 on dirt this meet (47%), #1 of 18 · Trainer William H Leech 30% career 8-for-14 on dirt this meet (57%), #1 of 33

CLASS UPWON LAST

Winner of an 8-horse $6,500 claiming race at CTD last time. Has moved up each time out, 69 to 75 to 80.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 70 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	Won/8 by 1	80	6.0-1	L	Last to first; won clr
9/26	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	Won/7 by 1	75	5.5-1	L	Blocked;3w;driving
9/5	CML	6f D	Clm 4k b	3rd/8 -3½L	69	30-1	L	Crowded;6w;clsd well

3Kardinal Rose★A. Perez · J. RobertsonPerez · RobertsonB58 60 77▼▼-16↕@trip 726-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1658 60 77 ↕@trip 72B★ Best at the trip 72

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–85 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 60 77

★ Best at the trip 72

Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 18-for-67 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Jerri R Robertson 33% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Karensnotimpressed 1-1, R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R3: Riding In Style 5-2, R4: Kamal 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Don't Ignore Me 8-1, R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK0/4 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Figures have slipped: 77, 60, 58 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 11 (5F in 1:01.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	7th/10 -9¾L	58	8.8-1	b L	Outward;offered little
9/25	CTD	7f D	OC 25k n4l	8th/8 -8L	60	13-1	b L	Chased4w;tired
9/7	CML	7f D	Clm 32k	4th/6 -3¼L	77	6.5-1	b L	Gave best late

4Annika's SongB. Boodramsingh · C. MeadBoodramsingh · MeadB65 72 52►↕9-2Fair 6-114%► Steady65 72 52 ↕B

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–76 · Last 3 figs 65 72 52

Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-46 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Colten Mead 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Sauce Me A Slice 3-1, R8: Who's That Baby 4-1 · Trainer R2: River Rock Fire 4-1, R3: Great Romie Ruth 20-1, this race: Gimlet 3-1

Jockey switch: Antonio Ambrosio Reyes last out, Brian Boodramsingh today. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6½ furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	OC 12k	3rd/5 -4L	65	4.2-1	b L	Bmpd;chsd3w;lackedkick
10/2	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k bc	2nd/8 by hd	72	3.2-1	b L	Chsd;outfinished
9/6	EMD	6f D	Clm 15k	7th/7 -14L	52	7.6-1	b L	3-w; tired

5Jackpot BarK. Natera · C. FreyNatera · FreyC65 58 69►10-1Fair 7-112%► Steady65 58 69C1

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 65 58 69

Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Carson Frey 27% career ★ 5-for-16 on dirt this meet (31%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Call Darla 8-1, R2: Rough Customer 8-1, R3: El Rocknroll 10-1, R4: Red Charity 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Just Like Lindsey 20-1, R4: Red Charity 6-1

CLASS DROP4/5 board here

Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	CTD	6½f D	Clm 12k b	2nd/5 -4½L	65	3.8-1	b	Unhurried;late rally
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	6th/10 -8¾L	58	27-1	b	Savedground;tiredearly
9/20	CTD	6f D	Clm 12k b	Won/5 by 1½	69	1.7-1	b	Svd;3w;won driving

6Affair▲N. Prescod · A. WardPrescod · WardC42 71 64▼▼-23↕@trip 4220-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -2342 71 64 ↕@trip 42C▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–71 · Best fig at today's trip 42 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 42 71 64
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Anderson Ward 36% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Brodys Souvenir 6-5, R3: N Two O 10-1, R5: Chaotic Sky 9-5, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1 +1 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and optional claiming now. 6th last time, 15 lengths back, in a field of 6.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.20 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 CTD 7½f D Clm 5k 6th/6 -15L 42 16-1 b L Outrun
9/7 CML 7f D Clm 6k b Won/5 by ½ 71 7.4-1 b L Narrowly prevailed
8/15 CML 6½f D Clm 6k b 8th/8 -6¼L 64 15-1 L Bmpd;faded gradually

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	7½f D	Clm 5k	6th/6 -15L	42	16-1	b L	Outrun
9/7	CML	7f D	Clm 6k b	Won/5 by ½	71	7.4-1	b L	Narrowly prevailed
8/15	CML	6½f D	Clm 6k b	8th/8 -6¼L	64	15-1	L	Bmpd;faded gradually

7GimletJ. Asencio · C. MeadAsencio · MeadA65 73 77▼▼-113-1Fair 9-219%▼▼ Big drop -1165 73 77A3

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 65 73 77

Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Colten Mead 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: River Rock Fire 4-1, R4: Scuffle 4-5, R5: Last Harbor 8-5, R6: Come On Big Lou 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: River Rock Fire 4-1, R3: Great Romie Ruth 20-1, this race: Annika's Song 9-2

Trending the wrong way on speed, 77 to 73 to 65. Was 4th of 5 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brushedgate; held2nd), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 76 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	OC 12k	2nd/5 -3½L	65	3.0-1	L	Brushedgate;held2nd
10/2	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k bc	Won/8 by 1	73	1.3-1	L	Prevailed under drive
9/11	CML	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	3rd/5 -1L	77	2.5-1	L	Stalked;outfinished

8AnothersunnydayL. Steadman · G. AndersonSteadman · AndersonA72 67 43▲▲+9↕5-2Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +972 67 43 ↕A2
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–80 · Last 3 figs 72 67 43
Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-50 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Gingers Giant 5-2 · Trainer R5: Max Booster 10-1, R6: Gingers Giant 5-2, R6: Dri Saddle 10-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 5-horse optional claiming race at CTD at 12-1. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Aug 27, in :47.20.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
SHARP LAST OUT Set pace; ridden out last out, and it did it the right way.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 27; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 CTD 6½f D OC 12k Won/5 72 12-1 L Set pace;ridden out
9/25 CTD 6½f D OC 12k 2nd/6 67 6.2-1 L Stalked3w;outkicked
9/5 CML 5½f D OC 12k 5th/7 -11L 43 1.9-1 L Tracked4w;lacked clse

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	OC 12k	Won/5	72	12-1	L	Set pace;ridden out
9/25	CTD	6½f D	OC 12k	2nd/6	67	6.2-1	L	Stalked3w;outkicked
9/5	CML	5½f D	OC 12k	5th/7 -11L	43	1.9-1	L	Tracked4w;lacked clse

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $12,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

11:12 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 12%

Claiming $12,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 88.9

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Jackpot Bar (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 65 · 58 · 69. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Anothersunnyday at 5-2. Use #7 Gimlet in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 ANOTHERSUNNYDAY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#8 ANOTHERSUNNYDAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.8% to their 23.4%).
#7 GIMLET — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 20.5%).
#4 ANNIKA'S SONG — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 14.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 JACKPOT BAR (10-1) — our fair 8.8% is above the morning line's 7.5%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Affair; pressure from #1 Starfall, #8 Anothersunnyday; the shape helps #1 Starfall, #3 Kardinal Rose, #4 Annika's Song; and works against #6 Affair.

Lead

6Affair85

Press

1Starfall918Anothersunnyday874Annika's Song847Gimlet84

Stalk

3Kardinal Rose71

2Spunoutofcontrol825Jackpot Bar82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Starfall

Anothersunnyday

Affair

Annika's Song

Gimlet

Kardinal Rose

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Spunoutofcontrol

Jackpot Bar

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