R4 CTD · Optional Claiming $17,000

9:51 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $21,000 · 6 runners9:51 PM · 7f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $21K · Optional Claiming $17,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Chablis▼S. Morales · D. CondileniosMorales · CondileniosB70 66 66▲▲+8@trip 7110-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +870 66 66@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 66 66

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Silvino Morales 32% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Dino Condilenios 26% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Lady Yellowstone 20-1, R8: Magic Molly 20-1 · Trainer R1: Karensnotimpressed 1-1

Last out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 7-horse allowance race at CTD. Best recent figure is 71, well under the 84 par for this level.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	7f D	Alw n2l	2nd/7 -½L	70	25-1	b L	4w;rallied;outfinished
10/2	CTD	6½f D	Alw n2l	4th/8 -4L	66	25-1	b L	Tracked;mild bid
9/11	CML	6½f D	Moc16000	Won/5	66	1.2-1	b L	Brushed;ridden out

2KamalA. Perez · J. BrownPerez · BrownB72 63 76►@trip 698-1Fair 8-110%► Steady72 63 76@trip 69B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 63 76

Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 18-for-67 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Karensnotimpressed 1-1, R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R3: Riding In Style 5-2, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R5: Stone House 8-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/4 board here

Runs for $21,000 today after a $50,000 race last time. Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse race at CTD.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.80 on Sep 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6½f D	sABSireDby50k	Won/5	72	0.7-1	L	Dueledinside;prevailed
10/3	CTD	1 1/16 D	OC 17k n2x	5th/6 -9L	63	11-1	L	Unhurriedearly;tired
9/12	CML	1 1/16 D	sBeaufort60k	Won/10	76	1.2-1	L	Prompted; edged clear

3Dale's MagicE. Gonzalez · K. KingstonGonzalez · KingstonA69 80 76▼-5@trip 807-2Fair 3-126%▼ Down -569 80 76@trip 80A1
Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 80 76
Jockey Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez 33% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Karline Kingston 23% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Pass The Gold 9-2, R8: Bound For Heaven 3-1 · Trainer R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R3: Pass The Gold 9-2, R8: Inxpress 12-1
CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Won last out in an 8-horse $15,000 claiming race at CTD. The Aug 22 work, 4F in :47.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 22; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 CTD 7½f D Clm 12k b Won/8 69 2.2-1 L Fan3w;kicked away
9/11 CML 7f D MCL 6k Won/10 80 0.7-1 L Stalked;drew off
8/29 CML 6½f D MCL 10k 3rd/6 -3½L 76 3.7-1 L Chsdinside;lacked kick

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	7½f D	Clm 12k b	Won/8	69	2.2-1	L	Fan3w;kicked away
9/11	CML	7f D	MCL 6k	Won/10	80	0.7-1	L	Stalked;drew off
8/29	CML	6½f D	MCL 10k	3rd/6 -3½L	76	3.7-1	L	Chsdinside;lacked kick

4Incredible Buddy▼LSM. Malvaez · J. RobertsonMalvaez · RobertsonB64 73 76▼▼-10@trip 7620-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -1064 73 76@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84LS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 73 76

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Mauricio Malvaez 20% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jerri R Robertson 33% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R3: Don't Ignore Me 8-1, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1 · Trainer R3: Don't Ignore Me 8-1, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1

Figures have slipped: 76, 73, 64 over its last three. Purse drops from $50,000 to $21,000 against its last start.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6½f D	sABSireDby50k	4th/5 -2¾L	64	7.1-1	b L	Vied4w;flattened out
10/2	CTD	7f D	Moc16000	Won/9	73	4.0-1	b L	4w;advanced;droveclear
8/15	CML	7f D	MSW	3rd/9 -1½L	76	11-1	b L	Sandwiched;missed

5ScuffleJ. Asencio · D. NicholsonAsencio · NicholsonA78 69 92▼-3↕@trip 814-5Fair 9-536%▼ Down -378 69 92 ↕@trip 81A2

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–92 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 69 92

Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer David Nicholson 23% career 0-for-17 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: River Rock Fire 4-1, R5: Last Harbor 8-5, R6: Come On Big Lou 10-1, R7: Gimlet 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Dura's Hawkeye 7-2, R8: Maturity Date 10-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 80 for the next best. Led at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 83d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CTD	7½f D	OC 17k n3l	4th/7	78	1.6-1	b L	Led;game;outfinished
9/26	CTD	1 1/16 D	OC 17k n3l	4th/10	69	4.5-1	b L	Pressed;gaveway
9/7	CML	1 1/16 D	OC 17k n3l	2nd/8	92	8.9-1	b L	Drew clr;collared

6Red Charity▼K. Natera · C. FreyNatera · FreyA76 63 77▲+66-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +676 63 77A▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 843
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 76 63 77
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Carson Frey 27% career ★ 5-for-16 on dirt this meet (31%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Call Darla 8-1, R2: Rough Customer 8-1, R3: El Rocknroll 10-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Just Like Lindsey 20-1, R7: Jackpot Bar 10-1
WON LAST
Winner of a 5-horse optional claiming race at CTD last time. Best recent figure of 77 sits right around the 84 par.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Outward; drew clear.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 CTD 6½f D OC 17k n2x Won/5 76 3.0-1 b Outward;drew clear
8/29 CML 6½f D OC 17k n2x 8th/8 63 2.5-1 b Brokein;bmpd;faltered
8/15 CML 6½f D MSW Won/8 77 12-1 b Prompted4w;edgd clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n2x	Won/5	76	3.0-1	b	Outward;drew clear
8/29	CML	6½f D	OC 17k n2x	8th/8	63	2.5-1	b	Brokein;bmpd;faltered
8/15	CML	6½f D	MSW	Won/8	77	12-1	b	Prompted4w;edgd clr

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #5, #6.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $17,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$21,000

Post

9:51 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 26%

Claiming $17,000, for 3-year-olds, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 81.89

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Dale's Magic (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 69 · 80 · 76. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Scuffle at 4-5. Use #6 Red Charity in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SCUFFLE (4-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#5 SCUFFLE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (41.6% to their 47.5%).
#3 DALE'S MAGIC — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.2%, they've got 19.0%.
#6 RED CHARITY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 12.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 DALE'S MAGIC — we make it 22.2%, the morning line works out to 19.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 INCREDIBLE BUDDY (20-1) — our fair 5.1% is above the morning line's 4.1%; supported by: raced wide / lost ground in 2 of last 4 — a cleaner trip or inside draw could free up improvement the past lines silently charge against

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Scuffle; pressure from #3 Dale's Magic, #6 Red Charity.

Lead

none

Press

5Scuffle943Dale's Magic886Red Charity86

Stalk

2Kamal864Incredible Buddy861Chablis81

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Scuffle

Dale's Magic

Kamal

Incredible Buddy

Red Charity

Chablis

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Kamal

Incredible Buddy

Scuffle

Red Charity

Dale's Magic

Chablis

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / ROLLING DOUBLE / PICK 5 (RACES 4-8)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.