R2 CTD · Claiming $12,000

8:42 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $15,500 · 5 runners8:42 PM · 6½f Dirt · 5 runners

Upcoming $16K · Claiming $12,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1River Rock FireJ. Asencio · C. MeadAsencio · MeadA68 60 78▼-3@trip 784-1Fair 5-117%▼ Down -368 60 78@trip 78A
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 60 78
Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 4-for-32 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Colten Mead 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Scuffle 4-5, R5: Last Harbor 8-5, R6: Come On Big Lou 10-1, R7: Gimlet 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Great Romie Ruth 20-1, R7: Annika's Song 9-2, R7: Gimlet 3-1
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here
Raises its level, $6,000 claiming last time and $12,000 claiming now. Changes barns, from Elizabet Stolzenberg to Colten Mead.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.60 on Sep 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k bc 2nd/10 68 1.8-1 b L Brk inward;outfinished
9/25 CTD 6f D Clm 12k b 5th/6 -5L 60 12-1 b L 4w;tired
9/11 CML 6½f D Clm 12k b 2nd/6 78 5.8-1 b L Showedway;collared

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k bc	2nd/10	68	1.8-1	b L	Brk inward;outfinished
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 12k b	5th/6 -5L	60	12-1	b L	4w;tired
9/11	CML	6½f D	Clm 12k b	2nd/6	78	5.8-1	b L	Showedway;collared

2Wocka WockaK. Chase · W. SmithChase · SmithB61 68 51▲+4@trip 708-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +461 68 51@trip 70B2

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 68 51

Jockey Kemar Richard Chase 16% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Dura's Hawkeye 7-2 · Trainer R1: Call Darla 8-1, this race: Rough Customer 8-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1

3/3 board here

3rd last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 8. Turns back in 7 days.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Awkwardly; 3w; lackdkick last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 60d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	CTD	7½f D	ROC	3rd/8 -2¼L	61	18-1	L	Awkwardly;3w;lackdkick
10/3	LBG	7f D	Alw b	2nd/4 -2½L	68	2.4-1		Late rally
9/12	BKF	1 1/16 D	SpaBoyMem7k	3rd/8 -20L	51	14-1	LB	Late interest for thir

3Cairo CowboyM. Malvaez · J. BrownMalvaez · BrownA63 75 76▼▼-117-2Fair 7-222%▼▼ Big drop -1163 75 76A1

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 63 75 76

Jockey Mauricio Malvaez 20% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Don't Ignore Me 8-1, R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1 · Trainer R4: Kamal 8-1, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R5: Stone House 8-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Back to 6½ furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. Trending the wrong way on speed, 76 to 75 to 63.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 11 (4F in :48.60), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	CTD	1 1/16 D	OC 17k n2x	4th/6 -9¼L	63	20-1	b	Setpace;stopped
8/28	CML	7f D	Clm 12k b	3rd/5 by hd	75	1.6-1	b	Brushed;gaveway
8/14	CML	7f D	OC 17k n2x	2nd/5 -4½L	76	3.2-1	b	2-w; mild rally

4Dontbringmedown▲★A. Perez · K. KingstonPerez · KingstonA69 74 86▼▼-8@trip 794-5Fair 8-537%▼▼ Big drop -869 74 86@trip 79A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 793

Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 74 86

▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 79

Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 18-for-67 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Karline Kingston 23% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Karensnotimpressed 1-1, R3: Riding In Style 5-2, R4: Kamal 8-1, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Pass The Gold 9-2, R4: Dale's Magic 7-2, R8: Inxpress 12-1

2/3 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 86. Figures have slipped: 86, 74, 69 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 12k b	2nd/6 -½L	69	2.5-1	L	3w;held firm 2nd
9/12	CML	6f D	sRedDiaExpH60k	3rd/7 -3½L	74	3.6-1	L	2-w; steady effort
8/28	CML	6f D	Clm 12k b	Won/5	86	0.3-1	L	Contested;riddenout

5Rough Customer▼K. Natera · W. SmithNatera · SmithB69 55 68▲+6@trip 668-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +6 · career best69 55 68@trip 66B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 55 68
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Call Darla 8-1, R3: El Rocknroll 10-1, R4: Red Charity 6-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Call Darla 8-1, this race: Wocka Wocka 8-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1
LASIX 1STWON LAST
Won last out in a 4-horse allowance race at LBG. A step up in company: allowance before, $12,000 claiming today.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 158d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 LBG 7f D Alw b Won/4 69 2.5-1 Stalked pace;
9/19 LBG -5½f D Alw b 2nd/6 -2½L — 4.5-1 Late rally
9/6 LBG 7f D sAlbertaBrd11k 3rd/6 55 2.1-1 Vied for lead;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	LBG	7f D	Alw b	Won/4	69	2.5-1	Stalked pace;
9/19	LBG	-5½f D	Alw b	2nd/6 -2½L	—	4.5-1	Late rally
9/6	LBG	7f D	sAlbertaBrd11k	3rd/6	55	2.1-1	Vied for lead;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $12,000

Field

5 runners

Purse

$15,500

Post

8:42 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 22%

Claiming $12,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 75.26

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Cairo Cowboy (early speed, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 63 · 75 · 76. Backup is #2 Wocka Wocka at 8-1. Use #4 Dontbringmedown in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 DONTBRINGMEDOWN (4-5) — our number has it ranked #3.
#4 DONTBRINGMEDOWN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (40.2% to their 46.3%).
#3 CAIRO COWBOY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 18.5%).
#1 RIVER ROCK FIRE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (18.6% to their 16.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 WOCKA WOCKA (8-1) — our fair 11.6% is above the morning line's 9.3%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 River Rock Fire; pressure from #4 Dontbringmedown, #3 Cairo Cowboy; and works against #1 River Rock Fire, #3 Cairo Cowboy, #4 Dontbringmedown.

Lead

1River Rock Fire924Dontbringmedown873Cairo Cowboy86

Press

5Rough Customer85

Stalk

2Wocka Wocka81

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

River Rock Fire

Dontbringmedown

Cairo Cowboy

Rough Customer

Wocka Wocka

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Dontbringmedown

Wocka Wocka

Cairo Cowboy

Rough Customer

River Rock Fire

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