R3 CTD · Maiden Special Weight

9:24 PM ET · 770 Yards Dirt · $28,000 · 9 runners9:24 PM · 3½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $28K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #2 N Two O (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 73 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Pass the Gold▼E. Gonzalez · K. KingstonGonzalez · KingstonB50 549-2Fair 7-112%—50 54B▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 50 54

    ▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez 33% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Karline Kingston 23% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Dale's Magic 7-2, R8: Bound For Heaven 3-1 · Trainer R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R4: Dale's Magic 7-2, R8: Inxpress 12-1

    Last out was 6th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse race at CTD. Purse drops from $50,000 to $28,000 against its last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 34d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3CTD6f DCTHSSale50k6th/6 -12L5019-1bVied2w;faded
    9/7CML5f DMSW6th/7 -8L544.7-1Brokeinward;3w;faded
  2. 2N Two O★LSN. Prescod · C. SmithPrescod · SmithB34 73@trip 7310-1Fair 10-19%—34 73@trip 73B★ Best at the trip 73LS

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 34 73

    ★ Best at the trip 73LS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-53 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Brodys Souvenir 6-5, R5: Chaotic Sky 9-5, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1, R7: Affair 20-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Gregarious Gal 7-2, R5: Sky Music 20-1, R6: Absolut John 10-1, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 73, with 72 next best. A step up in company: maiden claiming $15,000 before, maiden special weight today.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 48d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9CTD3½f DMCL 12k5th/8 -13L343.0-1Brk slow;mild bid
    9/26CTD3½f DMCL 16k2nd/7 -2L737.0-12nd best
  3. 3Sauce Me a Slice▼B. Boodramsingh · M. EdwardsBoodramsingh · EdwardsA49 55 44►@trip 553-1Fair 5-116%► Steady49 55 44@trip 55A▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 55 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 55 44

    ▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-46 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Makayla Edwards 21% career ★ 7-for-21 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 33
    Also today · Jockey R7: Annika's Song 9-2, R8: Who's That Baby 4-1 · Trainer R8: Hoax 5-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Raises its level, maiden claiming $12,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 55 against a 76 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 16 (3F in :36.60), 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9CTD3½f DMCL 12k2nd/8 -5L493.8-1Second best
    9/26CTD3½f DMCL 16k2nd/8 -7L551.8-1Ralliedinside;edgd clr
    8/14CML5f DMSW7th/7 -5½L444.2-14-w; tired
  4. 4Don't Ignore MeM. Malvaez · J. RobertsonMalvaez · Robertson?8-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?2

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?

    Jockey Mauricio Malvaez 20% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jerri R Robertson 33% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1 · Trainer R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1

    Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Echo Town and Violate breeding. On Oct 17 it was 2nd of 8 at 5F (1:02.40).

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Echo Town out of Violate (Broken Vow)
    Trainer J. Robertson: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 20% in the money (15 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 25% wins, 25% in the money (8 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 43% in the money (35 starts)
    Jockey M. Malvaez in sprints: 10 wins from 99 (10%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/17CTD5f1:02.40handily2/8
    10/7CTD4f:50.00handily1/2● bullet
    9/22CTD3f:36.60handily2/3from gate
    9/10CTM3f:36.40handily1/1● bullet from gate
    8/28CTM2f:25.00handily1/2● bullet
  5. 5Gregarious GalR. Balgobin · C. SmithBalgobin · Smith?7-2Fair 5-116%—Debut?3

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?

    Jockey Richard Balgobin 27% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-53 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Max Booster 10-1, R6: Dri Saddle 10-1, R8: Hoax 5-1 · Trainer this race: N Two O 10-1, R5: Sky Music 20-1, R6: Absolut John 10-1, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1

    Unraced; this barn has 47 first-time starters on record and wins 13% of them. The Oct 2 work, 4F in :47.80, was the fastest at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 2; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    First start. By City Wolf out of Jungle Rose (Animal Kingdom)
    Trainer C. Smith: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 34% in the money (47 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 15% wins, 41% in the money (27 starts) · Maiden special weights: 19% wins, 51% in the money (99 starts)
    Jockey R. Balgobin in sprints: 20 wins from 132 (15%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/17CTD5f1:04.00handily7/8
    10/2CTD4f:47.80handily1/7● bullet from gate
    9/12CTM4f:50.00handily14/25from gate
    9/5CTM4f:50.80handily26/31from gate
    8/21CTM4f:50.60handily26/30
  6. 6Riding in StyleA. Perez · M. SnowPerez · SnowA725-2Fair 4-121%—72A1

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72

    Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 18-for-67 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Mel Snow 23% career ★ 5-for-22 on dirt this meet (23%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Karensnotimpressed 1-1, R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R4: Kamal 8-1, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Magic Molly 20-1

    Cuts back from 1320 yards to 770 yards. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 88).

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 28d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16CTD6f DMCL 16k3rd/5722.5-1bRalliedinside;bested
  7. 7Great Romie Ruth▼O. Foster · C. MeadFoster · MeadB38 33 55▼-620-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -638 33 55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 38 33 55

    ▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Colten Mead 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Trainer R2: River Rock Fire 4-1, R7: Annika's Song 9-2, R7: Gimlet 3-1

    Orlando Foster takes over from T W Simpson in the saddle. A longer trip: -1210 yards last out, 770 yards today.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10LBG-5½f DBullysFut13k4th/6 -2L3815-1Dropped back
    9/27LBG5f DrBCup2YO11k4th/4 -2L334.6-1Dropped back
    8/28CML4½f DMSW5th/8 -4L5521-1Stalked;flattened out
  8. 8Just Like Lindsey▼R. Balgobin · C. FreyBalgobin · FreyC49 43 23▲▲+17↕@trip 4920-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best49 43 23 ↕@trip 49C▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 23–49 · Best fig at today's trip 49 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 43 23

    ▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Carson Frey 27% career ★ 5-for-16 on dirt this meet (31%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Stone House 8-1 · Trainer R4: Red Charity 6-1, R7: Jackpot Bar 10-1

    Figures are climbing: 23, 43, 49 over its last three. 6th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 7.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)
    TROUBLED TRIP 4-5w; faded last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 9d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26CTD3½f DMCL 16k6th/7 -10L496.5-1b4-5w;faded
    8/28CML4½f DMCL 16k4th/5 -2½L438.4-1bChased;bid;empty
    8/7CML5½f DsMdSpWt8th/8 -8¾L2342-1bChased4w;outrun
  9. 9El Rocknroll▼K. Natera · T. KettlesonNatera · KettlesonA57 51@trip 5110-1Fair 12-17%—57 51@trip 51A▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 51 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 51

    ▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Todd Kettleson 28% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Call Darla 8-1, R2: Rough Customer 8-1, R4: Red Charity 6-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1 +2 more

    Shortens up to 770 yards after going 1320 yards. A 57 is the high figure lately, short of the 76 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 27d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16CTD6f DMCL 16k4th/5 -5½L572.1-1CH;no recovery
    9/26CTD3½f DMCL 16k4th/7 -10L518.2-1Fractious;late bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART770 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

CTD · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field
9 runners
Purse
$28,000
Post
9:24 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#6 · 21%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 770 Yards: 38.75

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Riding In Style (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Don't Ignore Me at 8-1. Use #5 Gregarious Gal in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 RIDING IN STYLE (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #6 RIDING IN STYLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 21.5%).
  • #3 SAUCE ME A SLICE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 18.8%).
  • #5 GREGARIOUS GAL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 16.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Riding In Style; pressure from #7 Great Romie Ruth, #8 Just Like Lindsey; and works against #1 Pass The Gold, #2 N Two O, #3 Sauce Me A Slice.

Lead
6Riding In Style887Great Romie Ruth848Just Like Lindsey833Sauce Me A Slice822N Two O72
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Pass The Gold929El Rocknroll754Don't Ignore Me5Gregarious Gal

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

6
Riding In Style
88
7
Great Romie Ruth
84
8
Just Like Lindsey
83
3
Sauce Me A Slice
82
2
N Two O
72

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Pass The Gold
21
7
Great Romie Ruth
21
2
N Two O
17
3
Sauce Me A Slice
17
6
Riding In Style
16
8
Just Like Lindsey
16
9
El Rocknroll
16
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