★ Distance horse: #2 N Two O (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 73 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1Pass the Gold▼E. Gonzalez · K. KingstonGonzalez · KingstonB50 549-2Fair 7-112%
—50 54B▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 76Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 50 54
▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 76Jockey Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez 33% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Karline Kingston 23% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R4: Dale's Magic 7-2, R8: Bound For Heaven 3-1 · Trainer R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R4: Dale's Magic 7-2, R8: Inxpress 12-1Last out was 6th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse race at CTD. Purse drops from $50,000 to $28,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 34d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 CTD 6f D CTHSSale50k 6th/6 -12L 50 19-1 b Vied2w;faded 9/7 CML 5f D MSW 6th/7 -8L 54 4.7-1 Brokeinward;3w;faded 2N Two O★LSN. Prescod · C. SmithPrescod · SmithB34 73@trip 7310-1Fair 10-19%
—34 73@trip 73B★ Best at the trip 73LSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 34 73
★ Best at the trip 73LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-53 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R1: Brodys Souvenir 6-5, R5: Chaotic Sky 9-5, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1, R7: Affair 20-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Gregarious Gal 7-2, R5: Sky Music 20-1, R6: Absolut John 10-1, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 73, with 72 next best. A step up in company: maiden claiming $15,000 before, maiden special weight today.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 48d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 CTD 3½f D MCL 12k 5th/8 -13L 34 3.0-1 Brk slow;mild bid 9/26 CTD 3½f D MCL 16k 2nd/7 -2L 73 7.0-1 2nd best 3Sauce Me a Slice▼B. Boodramsingh · M. EdwardsBoodramsingh · EdwardsA49 55 44►@trip 553-1Fair 5-116%
► Steady49 55 44@trip 55A▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 55 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 55 44
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-46 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Makayla Edwards 21% career ★ 7-for-21 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 33★ FASTEST WORKRaises its level, maiden claiming $12,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 55 against a 76 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 16 (3F in :36.60), 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 CTD 3½f D MCL 12k 2nd/8 -5L 49 3.8-1 Second best 9/26 CTD 3½f D MCL 16k 2nd/8 -7L 55 1.8-1 Ralliedinside;edgd clr 8/14 CML 5f D MSW 7th/7 -5½L 44 4.2-1 4-w; tired 4Don't Ignore MeM. Malvaez · J. RobertsonMalvaez · Robertson?8-1Fair 8-111%
—Debut?2Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Mauricio Malvaez 20% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jerri R Robertson 33% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R2: Cairo Cowboy 7-2, R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1, R5: Chickoutthebizz 10-1, R8: Moonlit Courage 6-1 · Trainer R4: Incredible Buddy 20-1, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Echo Town and Violate breeding. On Oct 17 it was 2nd of 8 at 5F (1:02.40).
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 13d agoLast three races
First start. By Echo Town out of Violate (Broken Vow)Trainer J. Robertson: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 20% in the money (15 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 25% wins, 25% in the money (8 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 43% in the money (35 starts)Jockey M. Malvaez in sprints: 10 wins from 99 (10%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/17 CTD 5f 1:02.40 handily 2/8 10/7 CTD 4f :50.00 handily 1/2 ● bullet 9/22 CTD 3f :36.60 handily 2/3 from gate 9/10 CTM 3f :36.40 handily 1/1 ● bullet from gate 8/28 CTM 2f :25.00 handily 1/2 ● bullet 5Gregarious GalR. Balgobin · C. SmithBalgobin · Smith?7-2Fair 5-116%
—Debut?3Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Richard Balgobin 27% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-53 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R5: Max Booster 10-1, R6: Dri Saddle 10-1, R8: Hoax 5-1 · Trainer this race: N Two O 10-1, R5: Sky Music 20-1, R6: Absolut John 10-1, R6: Tranquil Tundra 3-1Unraced; this barn has 47 first-time starters on record and wins 13% of them. The Oct 2 work, 4F in :47.80, was the fastest at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 2; 2 works in 30dLast three races
First start. By City Wolf out of Jungle Rose (Animal Kingdom)Trainer C. Smith: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 34% in the money (47 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 15% wins, 41% in the money (27 starts) · Maiden special weights: 19% wins, 51% in the money (99 starts)Jockey R. Balgobin in sprints: 20 wins from 132 (15%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/17 CTD 5f 1:04.00 handily 7/8 10/2 CTD 4f :47.80 handily 1/7 ● bullet from gate 9/12 CTM 4f :50.00 handily 14/25 from gate 9/5 CTM 4f :50.80 handily 26/31 from gate 8/21 CTM 4f :50.60 handily 26/30 6Riding in StyleA. Perez · M. SnowPerez · SnowA725-2Fair 4-121%
—72A1Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72
Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 18-for-67 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Mel Snow 23% career ★ 5-for-22 on dirt this meet (23%)Also today · Jockey R1: Karensnotimpressed 1-1, R2: Dontbringmedown 4-5, R4: Kamal 8-1, R7: Kardinal Rose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Magic Molly 20-1Cuts back from 1320 yards to 770 yards. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 88).
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 28d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CTD 6f D MCL 16k 3rd/5 72 2.5-1 b Ralliedinside;bested 7Great Romie Ruth▼O. Foster · C. MeadFoster · MeadB38 33 55▼-620-1Fair 20-14%
▼ Down -638 33 55B▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 38 33 55
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 76Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Colten Mead 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)Orlando Foster takes over from T W Simpson in the saddle. A longer trip: -1210 yards last out, 770 yards today.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 LBG -5½f D BullysFut13k 4th/6 -2L 38 15-1 Dropped back 9/27 LBG 5f D rBCup2YO11k 4th/4 -2L 33 4.6-1 Dropped back 8/28 CML 4½f D MSW 5th/8 -4L 55 21-1 Stalked;flattened out 8Just Like Lindsey▼R. Balgobin · C. FreyBalgobin · FreyC49 43 23▲▲+17↕@trip 4920-1Fair 30-14%
▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best49 43 23 ↕@trip 49C▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 76Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 23–49 · Best fig at today's trip 49 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 43 23
▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 76Jockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Carson Frey 27% career ★ 5-for-16 on dirt this meet (31%)Figures are climbing: 23, 43, 49 over its last three. 6th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 7.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)TROUBLED TRIP 4-5w; faded last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 9d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 CTD 3½f D MCL 16k 6th/7 -10L 49 6.5-1 b 4-5w;faded 8/28 CML 4½f D MCL 16k 4th/5 -2½L 43 8.4-1 b Chased;bid;empty 8/7 CML 5½f D sMdSpWt 8th/8 -8¾L 23 42-1 b Chased4w;outrun 9El Rocknroll▼K. Natera · T. KettlesonNatera · KettlesonA57 51@trip 5110-1Fair 12-17%
—57 51@trip 51A▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 76Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 51 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 51
▼ Best fig 57 is 5+ under today's par 76Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Todd Kettleson 28% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R1: Call Darla 8-1, R2: Rough Customer 8-1, R4: Red Charity 6-1, R6: Blue Granite 20-1 +2 moreShortens up to 770 yards after going 1320 yards. A 57 is the high figure lately, short of the 76 par.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 27d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 CTD 6f D MCL 16k 4th/5 -5½L 57 2.1-1 CH;no recovery 9/26 CTD 3½f D MCL 16k 4th/7 -10L 51 8.2-1 Fractious;late bid
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CTD · RACE 3
UPCOMINGMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 770 Yards: 38.75
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Riding In Style (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Don't Ignore Me at 8-1. Use #5 Gregarious Gal in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 RIDING IN STYLE (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #6 RIDING IN STYLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 21.5%).
- #3 SAUCE ME A SLICE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 18.8%).
- #5 GREGARIOUS GAL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 16.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Riding In Style; pressure from #7 Great Romie Ruth, #8 Just Like Lindsey; and works against #1 Pass The Gold, #2 N Two O, #3 Sauce Me A Slice.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / ROLLING DOUBLE
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