Pick sheet

Race 64:00 PM Alw 25000n2l

7F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, K Dog, is 30% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #5.

Top pick #5 K Dog ML 3-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 63–65 ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey A. Birzer · Trainer B. Birzer · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/8 -2L	65	4.5-1	b LB	Broke sharply
9/24	PRM	6f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/9 -4L	64	1.4-1	b LB	Bid 2p1/4p;kept on
8/21	PRM	6f D	fsClm15000n2l	3rd/9 -6L	65	18-1	b LB	2wd 1/4p;cleared rest

Case: Last out 2nd in the fClm15000n2l at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 65-64-65. 0-for-1 at Eureka. B. Birzer / A. Birzer.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f).

Contender #6 Tamarack ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -22 ↕ Up and down 50–76

Jockey N. Haar · Trainer T. Gleason · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CBY	1m D	Alw b	5th/7 -10L	50	9.3-1	b L	Urged along 1/2;no bid
8/30	CBY	1m T	Alw b	2nd/8 -2L	74	1.4-1	b L	4p2nd;bid1/4;late gain
8/8	CBY	1m T	Alw b	4th/8 -3L	67	1.5-1	b L	Bmp brk;2-3p;wkn

Case: Last out 5th/7 -10L in the Alw27051b at CBY. Last Brisnet figures 50-74-67. T. Gleason / N. Haar.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Use #1 E. L.'s Legacy ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 58–64 ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 80 Last out 3rd in the fClm15000n2l at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 61-64-58. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. C. Stortzum / D. Goodface. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey D. Goodface · Trainer C. Stortzum · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/8 -6L	61	11-1	b LB	Gained ground
9/18	PRM	6f D	fsClm12500n2l	2nd/6 -3L	64	29-1	b LB	Clearly second best
8/21	PRM	6f D	fsClm15000n2l	4th/9 -9L	58	56-1	b LB	Passed tiring foes

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #6 · B #1, #2, #3

Angles: #1 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #2 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #3 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #4 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #5 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80

R6 EUR · Allowance · $25,000 purse

4:00 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $25,000 · 6 runners4:00 PM · 7f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $25K · Allowance · $25,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1E. L.'s Legacy▼D. Goodface · C. StortzumGoodface · StortzumB61 64 58►≡7-2Fair 6-114%► Steady61 64 58 ≡B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 803

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 58–64 · Last 3 figs 61 64 58

▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Daniel Goodface 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cady Stortzum 16% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Broadway Appeal 10-1, R5: Be Bo 5-1 · Trainer R4: Broadway Appeal 10-1

A 64 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 175d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/8 -6L	61	11-1	b LB	Gained ground
9/18	PRM	6f D	fsClm12500n2l	2nd/6 -3L	64	29-1	b LB	Clearly second best
8/21	PRM	6f D	fsClm15000n2l	4th/9 -9L	58	56-1	b LB	Passed tiring foes

2West Texas Ruby▼C. Alvarado · S. MartinAlvarado · MartinB55 65 56▼-3@trip 558-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -355 65 56@trip 55B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 80

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 55 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 65 56

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Cristian Alvarado 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Steve Martin 28% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Buthespretty 5-1, R5: Gran Chico 8-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Beaten 6½ lengths for 7th in a 9-horse $20,000 claiming race at RP. Quick turnaround, just 9 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Aug 8; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	RP	7f D	fsClm20000n2l	7th/9 -6½L	55	81-1	L	Inside; no threat
10/8	RP	6½f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/8 -9½L	65	67-1	L	Angled 5w; willingly
9/19	RP	6f D	fsClm10000n2l	4th/9 -7½L	56	76-1	L	Rallied; no threat;

3Sunshine Sister▼J. Medina · M. EsquibelMedina · EsquibelB65 54 56▲▲+104-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best65 54 56B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 65 54 56

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 1 · Trainer Mark Esquibel 18% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Myth Conception 8-5, R4: Sidetown 9-2, R5: R D C Posse 20-1, R10: Rich Taste Lm 4-1

WON LAST

Raises its level, maiden claiming $10,000 last time and allowance now. Mark Esquibel takes over the training from Orrin L Cogburn.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Altered 6wd; in time), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 14d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	RP	6f D	fsMd10000	Won/7 by 2	65	11-1	b L	Altered 6wd; in time
7/3	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/5 -2L	54	1.4-1	b L	Bid;kept at bay
6/18	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/5 -6L	56	6.9-1	b L	Settled; 2w; 2nd best

4Classic Tiramisu▼A. Stanley · B. DelongStanley · DelongA68 57 59▲▲+126-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best68 57 59A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 80

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 68 57 59

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Painted Pretty Now 12-1, R3: Painted Senor 5-2, R4: Awesome Outlaw 3-1, R10: Rv Relentless 8-1

Moves up from $5,000 claiming to allowance. Goes 7 furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump st; 3p; rally; miss. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 204 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	FPK	6f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/9 -1L	68	8.0-1	L	Bump st;3p;rally;miss
10/2	BTP	6f D	MCL 5k	Won/4	57	0.6-1	L	2-3p;cue5/16;drew away
9/18	BTP	5½f D	MCL 5k	2nd/4 -2½L	59	2.4-1	L	Stayed on best; 2nd

5K Dog▼A. Birzer · B. BirzerBirzer · BirzerA65 64 65►≡3-1Fair 5-230%► Steady65 64 65 ≡A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 801

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–65 · Last 3 figs 65 64 65

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Bonnie Birzer 30% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Bluegrass Breeze 5-1, R10: Uptown Top Shelf 3-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

2nd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 8. Best recent figure is 65, well under the 80 par for this level.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.60 on Sep 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/8 -2L	65	4.5-1	b LB	Broke sharply
9/24	PRM	6f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/9 -4L	64	1.4-1	b LB	Bid 2p1/4p;kept on
8/21	PRM	6f D	fsClm15000n2l	3rd/9 -6L	65	18-1	b LB	2wd 1/4p;cleared rest

6TamarackN. Haar · T. GleasonHaar · GleasonA50 74 67▼▼-22↕2-1Fair 5-228%▼▼ Big drop -2250 74 67 ↕A2
Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–76 · Last 3 figs 50 74 67
Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Tyrone Gleason 32% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Jumpingjaggerflash 10-1, R10: Kd Ladys Man 6-1
New trainer: Ty J Garrett had it last time, Tyrone Gleason now. Tops the field on speed figures, a 76 against 68 for the next best.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 99d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 CBY 1m D Alw b 5th/7 -10L 50 9.3-1 b L Urged along 1/2;no bid
8/30 CBY 1m T Alw b 2nd/8 -2L 74 1.4-1 b L 4p2nd;bid1/4;late gain
8/8 CBY 1m T Alw b 4th/8 -3L 67 1.5-1 b L Bmp brk;2-3p;wkn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #4, #5.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Allowance · $25,000 purse

Field

6 runners

Purse

$25,000

Post

4:00 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 30%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 84.8

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 K Dog (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 65 · 64 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Tamarack at 2-1. Use #1 E. L.'s Legacy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 TAMARACK (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#6 TAMARACK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.7% to their 26.5%).
#5 K DOG — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.9%, they've got 19.8%.
#1 E. L.'S LEGACY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 K DOG — we make it 22.9%, the morning line works out to 19.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 K Dog; pressure from #4 Classic Tiramisu.

Lead

none

Press

5K Dog894Classic Tiramisu84

Stalk

6Tamarack843Sunshine Sister75

1E. L.'s Legacy802West Texas Ruby72

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

K Dog

Classic Tiramisu

Tamarack

Sunshine Sister

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

West Texas Ruby

E. L.'s Legacy

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