Pick sheet

Race 53:30 PM Alw 4000s

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Lookin For Bala, is 32% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #8 Lookin For Bala ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ★ Best at 6f dirt: 87 ≡ Steady 80–87 ▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 80 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey B. Martinez · Trainer R. Martinez · Dist 19: 6-4-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 87 · 18 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	FPK	6f D	Alw s	Won/8	81	0.9-1	b L	Sprint clear;held sway
9/12	FPK	6f D	Alw s	Won/10	87	3.7-1	b L	Insd;led 1/2;drew off
8/25	FPK	6f D	sOC10000n1x	Won/8	83	0.7-1	b L	Drew off; mild urging

Case: Last out won in the Alw4000s at FPK. Last Brisnet figures 81-87-83. Best at today's distance 87. 6-for-19 at the distance. R. Martinez / B. Martinez.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #7 Wicklow Hills ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -8

Jockey L. Delorme · Trainer K. Warren · Dist 12: 4-2-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 81 · 48 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	SWF	6½f D	Exacta39k	5th/7 -4L	73	6.5-1	b LB	6-w 1st turn; weakened
8/28	SWF	5½f D	OC 7k	2nd/8	85	1.9-1	b LB	Rail trip;gd fnsh;miss
8/1	ARP	6f D	OC 8k	Won/6	81	3.4-1	b LB	Off duel;circld 4w;drv

Case: Last out 5th/7 -4L in the Exacta39k at SWF. Last Brisnet figures 73-85-81. Best at today's distance 81. 4-for-12 at the distance. K. Warren / L. Delorme.

Knock: Never raced at Eureka.

Use #3 Bamby Boom ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 72–76 Last out 2nd in the Alw25000n1x at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 72-76-76. Best at today's distance 74. 0-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Eureka. A. Crump / J. Coates. Knock: 0-for-5 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Coates · Trainer A. Crump · KEE 2: 0-1-1 · Dist 5: 0-0-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 74 · 6 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	7f D	Alw n1x	2nd/5 -5L	72	6.3-1	LB	Late rally
10/18	EUR	5½f D	Alw s	3rd/6 by hd	76	7.9-1	LB	Even throughout
9/27	SWF	6½f D	Clm 5k	3rd/8 -3¼L	76	7.8-1	LB	Inside; late rally

Narrowing the field: A #5, #7, #8 · B #1, #3, #6 · C #2, #4

Angles: #2 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80 · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Last fig 81 at/above par 80 · #8 Lone speed on early pace

R5 EUR · State-Bred Allowance · $16,000 purse

3:30 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $16,000 · 8 runners3:30 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $16K · State-Bred Allowance · $16,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Be BoD. Goodface · G. ThompsonGoodface · ThompsonB69 77 80►↕@trip 805-1Fair 7-113%► Steady69 77 80 ↕@trip 80B
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 77 80
Jockey Daniel Goodface 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Grady Thompson 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Broadway Appeal 10-1, R6: E. L.'s Legacy 7-2
Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 5-horse allowance race at EUR. Goes 6 furlongs after running 4 furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Dueled throughout. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 23d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 4f D Alw s 2nd/5 -1L 69 4.5-1 LB Dueled throughout
9/6 ATO 6f D Clm 5k Won/6 77 7.9-1 LB Spd insd; shook free
8/29 ATO 6f D Clm 5k n2y 2nd/5 by hd 80 5.2-1 LB Press 3-4wd; no match

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	4f D	Alw s	2nd/5 -1L	69	4.5-1	LB	Dueled throughout
9/6	ATO	6f D	Clm 5k	Won/6	77	7.9-1	LB	Spd insd; shook free
8/29	ATO	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	2nd/5 by hd	80	5.2-1	LB	Press 3-4wd; no match

2R D C Posse▼J. Medina · S. WilliamsMedina · WilliamsC54 58 65►↕@trip 6520-1Fair 30-13%► Steady54 58 65 ↕@trip 65C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 39–65 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 58 65

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 80

Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 1 · Trainer Steve F Williams 31% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Myth Conception 8-5, R4: Sidetown 9-2, R6: Sunshine Sister 4-1, R10: Rich Taste Lm 4-1 · Trainer R4: Sidetown 9-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from $5,000 claiming to starter allowance. A 65 is the high figure lately, short of the 80 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Oct 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	ATO	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	4th/4 -14L	54	15-1	b LB	Trailed
8/23	HCN	5f D	Clm 3k	2nd/5 -1½L	58	9.3-1	b LB	Press 3-5wd;no match
8/15	HCN	5f D	Clm 2k n2y	Won/6 by 4½	65	12-1	b LB	7wd rally; with a rush

3Bamby BoomJ. Coates · A. CrumpCoates · CrumpB72 76 76▼-3≡@trip 744-1Fair 6-114%▼ Down -372 76 76 ≡@trip 74B3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–76 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 76 76
Jockey J R Coates 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anthony Crump 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Cash Assets 2-1 · Trainer R2: Cash Assets 2-1
Turns back in 6 days. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 55d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 EUR 7f D Alw n1x 2nd/5 -5L 72 6.3-1 LB Late rally
10/18 EUR 5½f D Alw s 3rd/6 by hd 76 7.9-1 LB Even throughout
9/27 SWF 6½f D Clm 5k 3rd/8 -3¼L 76 7.8-1 LB Inside; late rally
4Jumpingjaggerflash▼N. Haar · J. IbarraHaar · IbarraC67 68 60▲▲+13↕@trip 7010-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1367 68 60 ↕@trip 70C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–68 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 68 60
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Ibarra 34% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Tamarack 2-1, R10: Kd Ladys Man 6-1 · Trainer R2: Buthespretty 5-1, this race: Gran Chico 8-1
CLASS UP
A longer trip: 4 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today. Best recent figure is 68, well under the 80 par for this level.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 271d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 4f D Clm 5k 2nd/5 -1L 67 4.4-1 LB Gained ground
9/6 ATO 6f D Clm 2k n2y 2nd/7 -1½L 68 3.4-1 LB 3-4wd; no match win
8/30 ATO 6f D Clm 2k n1y Won/6 60 7.4-1 LB 3-4wd; duel lane; up
5Gran ChicoC. Alvarado · J. IbarraAlvarado · IbarraA74 72 67▲+4≡@trip 748-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +474 72 67 ≡@trip 74A
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 67–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 72 67
Jockey Cristian Alvarado 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Ibarra 34% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Buthespretty 5-1, R6: West Texas Ruby 8-1 · Trainer R2: Buthespretty 5-1, this race: Jumpingjaggerflash 10-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Figures are climbing: 67, 72, 74 over its last three. Finished 2nd in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at EUR, beaten a head.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 48 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 EUR 6f D rClm5000 2nd/6 by hd 74 4.6-1 b LB Dueled
9/24 PRM 6f D Clm 5k b 3rd/8 -5L 72 26-1 b LB Ang out 1/4p;6p upper
4/18 FON 6f D Alw s 6th/8 -3¾L 67 27-1 b LB 3wd; no closing run

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k	2nd/5 -1L	67	4.4-1	LB	Gained ground
9/6	ATO	6f D	Clm 2k n2y	2nd/7 -1½L	68	3.4-1	LB	3-4wd; no match win
8/30	ATO	6f D	Clm 2k n1y	Won/6	60	7.4-1	LB	3-4wd; duel lane; up

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	rClm5000	2nd/6 by hd	74	4.6-1	b LB	Dueled
9/24	PRM	6f D	Clm 5k b	3rd/8 -5L	72	26-1	b LB	Ang out 1/4p;6p upper
4/18	FON	6f D	Alw s	6th/8 -3¾L	67	27-1	b LB	3wd; no closing run

6UxmalD. Aguilar · J. SchindlerAguilar · SchindlerB70 64 62▲+4@trip 7015-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +470 64 62@trip 70B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 64 62

Jockey Daniel Aguilar 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jeff Schindler 26% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: King Zog 15-1 · Trainer R2: King Zog 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Raises its level, $2,500 claiming last time and starter allowance now. Has moved up each time out, 62 to 64 to 70.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 27 (3F in :37.00), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ATO	6f D	Clm 2k	2nd/7 -2L	70	2.0-1	b LB	4wd bid; no match
8/23	HCN	6f D	Clm 2k n2y	Won/6 by ½	64	2.3-1	b LB	3-5wd bid; drew off
8/14	HCN	1m D	Clm 5k	4th/5 -3¼L	62	6.4-1	b LB	Track 3-4wd; weakened

7Wicklow HillsL. Delorme · K. WarrenDelorme · WarrenA73 85 81▼▼-8@trip 813-1Fair 4-121%▼▼ Big drop -873 85 81@trip 81A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 85 81

Jockey L Delorme 29% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kayla Warren 35% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Stanford Holiday 2-1, R9: Flashin Turnpike 8-1 · Trainer R1: Raceher 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Has run 85 against a 80 par for the class. Purse drops from $38,500 to $16,000 against its last start.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 497d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	SWF	6½f D	Exacta39k	5th/7 -4L	73	6.5-1	b LB	6-w 1st turn; weakened
8/28	SWF	5½f D	OC 7k	2nd/8	85	1.9-1	b LB	Rail trip;gd fnsh;miss
8/1	ARP	6f D	OC 8k	Won/6	81	3.4-1	b LB	Off duel;circld 4w;drv

8Lookin For Bala▲▲★B. Martinez · R. MartinezMartinez · MartinezA81 87 83►≡@trip 872-1Fair 2-132%► Steady81 87 83 ≡@trip 87A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 80▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 871
Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 87 83
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 80▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 87
Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career · Trainer Ralph A Martinez 32% career
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse allowance race at FPK. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 85 next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 16 (4F in :48.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 FPK 6f D Alw s Won/8 81 0.9-1 b L Sprint clear;held sway
9/12 FPK 6f D Alw s Won/10 87 3.7-1 b L Insd;led 1/2;drew off
8/25 FPK 6f D sOC10000n1x Won/8 83 0.7-1 b L Drew off; mild urging

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 5

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $16,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$16,000

Post

3:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#8 · 32%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 72.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Lookin For Bala (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 81 · 87 · 83. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Wicklow Hills at 3-1. Use #3 Bamby Boom in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 LOOKIN FOR BALA (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 LOOKIN FOR BALA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 26.4%).
#7 WICKLOW HILLS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 19.8%).
#3 BAMBY BOOM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Lookin For Bala; pressure from #1 Be Bo, #3 Bamby Boom; the shape helps #2 R D C Posse, #3 Bamby Boom, #4 Jumpingjaggerflash; and works against #1 Be Bo, #8 Lookin For Bala.

Lead

8Lookin For Bala921Be Bo87

Press

3Bamby Boom865Gran Chico854Jumpingjaggerflash812R D C Posse79

Stalk

7Wicklow Hills896Uxmal84

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Lookin For Bala

Wicklow Hills

Be Bo

Bamby Boom

Gran Chico

Uxmal

Jumpingjaggerflash

R D C Posse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Wicklow Hills

Lookin For Bala

Uxmal

Be Bo

Bamby Boom

Jumpingjaggerflash

Gran Chico

R D C Posse

-2

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