| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/1 | RP | 5½f D | Clm 10k n3l | 2nd/5 -1L | 74 | 9.2-1 | L | Prsd pc;3p;duel;up |
| 8/27 | RP | 5½f D | Clm 10k n3l | 4th/6 -3¼L | 71 | 8.8-1 | L | Inside; bid;empty late |
| 4/6 | WRD | 6f D | Clm 7k n2l | Won/8 | 72 | 4.1-1 | L | Vie ins;headed;rally |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | EUR | 4f D | Clm 12k | 4th/8 -4L | 66 | 10-1 | LB | Even effort |
| 10/18 | EUR | 6f D | Alw n3l | 4th/6 -2L | 70 | 3.2-1 | LB | Even throughout |
| 9/13 | SWF | 6½f D | Exacta39k | 3rd/7 | 84 | 11-1 | LB | Vied; held 3rd |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | EUR | 6f D | rClm5000 | 3rd/6 -1½L | 69 | 7.5-1 | LB | Hustled along |
| 9/6 | ATO | 6f D | Clm 5k n3l | 4th/6 -6½L | 53 | 5.8-1 | LB | Moved up inside |
| 8/30 | ATO | 6f D | Clm 5k n3l | 3rd/8 -2½L | 70 | 24-1 | LB | Bobble brk; 5wd str |
1Stroll With Class▼E. Esqueda · J. Hernandez-MartinezEsqueda · Hernandez-MartinezB31 60 37▼▼-13↕8-1Fair 12-18%
▼▼ Big drop -1331 60 37 ↕B▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 80Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 31–60 · Last 3 figs 31 60 37
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 80A big drop, $20,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming, and worth asking why. Jose Hernandez-Martinez takes over the training from Jose Ibarra.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 55 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/11 PRM 5f D Clm 12k n2l 8th/8 -6½L 31 35-1 LB Brief duel; retreated 8/15 HCN 5f D MSW Won/6 60 5.2-1 LB 3path; roused; widen 7/20 PRM 5f D fsMdSpWt 7th/10 -6¼L 37 38-1 B 3wd upper;no threat 2Buthespretty▼C. Alvarado · J. IbarraAlvarado · IbarraA69 53 70▲▲+85-1Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +869 53 70A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 803Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 69 53 70
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey Cristian Alvarado 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose Ibarra 34% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R5: Gran Chico 8-1, R6: West Texas Ruby 8-1 · Trainer R5: Jumpingjaggerflash 10-1, R5: Gran Chico 8-1Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at EUR. Shortens up to 880 yards after going 1320 yards.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 13d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/25 EUR 6f D rClm5000 3rd/6 -1½L 69 7.5-1 LB Hustled along 9/6 ATO 6f D Clm 5k n3l 4th/6 -6½L 53 5.8-1 LB Moved up inside 8/30 ATO 6f D Clm 5k n3l 3rd/8 -2½L 70 24-1 LB Bobble brk; 5wd str 3McmusicL. Huaman · M. BuehrerHuaman · BuehrerB55 55 74▼▼-11↕12-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1155 55 74 ↕BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–74 · Last 3 figs 55 55 74
Jockey Luis A Huaman 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mark W Buehrer 24% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meetChanges barns, from Scott Corderman to Mark W Buehrer. Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Jun 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 RP 5f D Clm 5k b 5th/6 -4L 55 11-1 b L 3 wide turn; no threat 9/5 RP 5f D Clm 5k b 4th/5 -7L 55 9.2-1 b L Rail bid;flattened out 5/22 PRM 6f D Clm 6k bv 4th/7 -1L 74 16-1 b LB Vied;weakend past 1/8p 4Myth Conception▼J. Medina · M. BuehrerMedina · BuehrerA74 71 72▲+68-5Fair 7-542%
▲ Up +6 · career best74 71 72A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 801Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 74 71 72
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 80Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 1 · Trainer Mark W Buehrer 24% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Sidetown 9-2, R5: R D C Posse 20-1, R6: Sunshine Sister 4-1, R10: Rich Taste Lm 4-1 · Trainer this race: McMusic 12-1Back to 880 yards off a 1210 yards race. Last out was 2nd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 5-horse $10,000 claiming race at RP.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 12d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 RP 5½f D Clm 10k n3l 2nd/5 -1L 74 9.2-1 L Prsd pc;3p;duel;up 8/27 RP 5½f D Clm 10k n3l 4th/6 -3¼L 71 8.8-1 L Inside; bid;empty late 4/6 WRD 6f D Clm 7k n2l Won/8 72 4.1-1 L Vie ins;headed;rally 5King Zog▼LSD. Aguilar · J. SchindlerAguilar · SchindlerB42 52 56▼▼-1415-1Fair 20-15%
▼▼ Big drop -1442 52 56B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 80LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 42 52 56
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 80LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Daniel Aguilar 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jeff Schindler 26% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKBest recent figure is 70, well under the 80 par for this level. Trending the wrong way on speed, 56 to 52 to 42.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 132 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 PRM 6f D Clm 5k b 8th/8 -11L 42 36-1 b LB Savd grnd;no response 8/30 ATO 6f D Clm 5k n3l 7th/8 -6½L 52 2.0-1 b LB Press 3-4wd; weakened 8/15 HCN 5f D Alw n3l 2nd/5 -4L 56 2.0-1 b LB Track insd; no match 6Cash AssetsJ. Coates · A. CrumpCoates · CrumpA66 70 84▼▼-12@trip 802-1Fair 3-125%
▼▼ Big drop -1266 70 84@trip 80A2Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 70 84
Jockey J R Coates 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anthony Crump 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetTops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 74 for the next best. Figures have slipped: 84, 70, 66 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/25 EUR 4f D Clm 12k 4th/8 -4L 66 10-1 LB Even effort 10/18 EUR 6f D Alw n3l 4th/6 -2L 70 3.2-1 LB Even throughout 9/13 SWF 6½f D Exacta39k 3rd/7 84 11-1 LB Vied; held 3rd 7Engagement▼▲A. Ortiz · T. AndersonOrtiz · AndersonC42 14 59▲+3↕20-1Fair 50-12%
▲ Up +342 14 59 ↕C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 80▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 14–59 · Last 3 figs 42 14 59
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 80▲ Lone speed on early pace★ FASTEST WORKLed at the first call last time. The Oct 13 work, 4F in :48.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Oct 13 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/20 FPK 6f D Clm 5k n2l 8th/9 -2½L 42 67-1 b L Ins;cued1/4;gaveway1/8 9/26 FPK 6f D Clm 4k 7th/7 -11L 14 20-1 b L Vied; tired 9/1 FPK 5f D Clm 5k n2l 6th/7 by hd 59 5.5-1 b L Clear lead; faltered
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EUR · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $7,500
Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 4 Furlongs: 44.72
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Myth Conception (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 74 · 71 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Cash Assets at 2-1. Use #2 Buthespretty in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 MYTH CONCEPTION (8-5) — our number agrees.
- #4 MYTH CONCEPTION — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (34.3% to their 32.5%).
- #6 CASH ASSETS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.9% to their 28.2%).
- #2 BUTHESPRETTY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.7% to their 14.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Engagement; pressure from #1 Stroll With Class, #5 King Zog; and works against #1 Stroll With Class, #5 King Zog, #7 Engagement.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$2 WIN;PLACE; SHOW
$2 EXACTA ($1 BOX / WHEEL)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta