Pick sheet

Race 106:00 PM Md Sp Wt

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Gt Escape Velocity, is 33% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Gt Escape Velocity ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1

Jockey L. Huaman · Trainer T. Johnson · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 3: 0-2-1 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	MSW	3rd/5 -3L	—	0.9-1	L	Hustled along
7/19	GIL	6f D	MSW	2nd/7	—	2.0-1	L	Duel pace overtaken
7/10	LS	1m D	TxArOaks G3	4th/7 -7½L	—	15-1	L	Chased 2wd; no rally

Case: Last out 3rd in the fMdSpWt at EUR. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. T. Johnson / L. Huaman.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Contender #3 Uptown Top Shelf ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2

Jockey A. Birzer · Trainer J. Padilla · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 4: 0-1-1 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	MSW	2nd/5 -2L	—	5.6-1	LB	Improved position
7/19	GIL	6f D	MSW	3rd/7 -¾L	—	16-1	L	Drop back solid stretc
7/4	LS	6f D	MSW	4th/5 -8½L	—	2.0-1	L	4p;outkicked for 3rd

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at EUR. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. J. Padilla / A. Birzer.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Use #6 Wma Joyful ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 Last out 4th/5 -5½L in the fMdSpWt at EUR. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. R. Deleon / J. Jude. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Jockey J. Jude · Trainer R. Deleon · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 3: 0-0-0 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	6f D	MSW	4th/5 -5½L	—	9.8-1	b L	No factor
7/19	GIL	6f D	MSW	7th/7 -6¼L	—	18-1	b L	Steady retreat no fact
7/10	LS	1m D	TxArOaks G3	7th/7 -17L	—	30-1	b L	No factor; 3wd

Narrowing the field: A · ? #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

R10 EUR · Maiden Special Weight

6:00 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $30,000 · 6 runners6:00 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $30K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Rv RelentlessA. Stanley · K. DanylukStanley · Danyluk?8-1Fair 30-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ken Danyluk 15% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Painted Pretty Now 12-1, R3: Painted Senor 5-2, R4: Awesome Outlaw 3-1, R6: Classic Tiramisu 6-1 · Trainer this race: Kd Ladys Man 6-1
Last out was 5th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at EUR. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 45d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 EUR 6f D Alw n2l 5th/6 -12L — 5.3-1 b Always outrun
7/19 GIL 6f D MSW 6th/7 -5¼L — 12-1 b Early factor faded
7/4 LS 6f D MSW 3rd/5 -8L — 7.0-1 b 3p;won nod 3rd
2Rich Taste LmJ. Medina · T. JohnsonMedina · Johnson?4-1Fair 6-115%—Debut?
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 1 · Trainer Thunder Johnson 31% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Myth Conception 8-5, R4: Sidetown 9-2, R5: R D C Posse 20-1, R6: Sunshine Sister 4-1 · Trainer this race: Gt Escape Velocity 2-1
Debut for this Yallahjani gelding, whose dam is Rich Craft. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 27).
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 2d ago
Last three races
First start. By Yallahjani out of Rich Craft (Th Richie)
Trainer T. Johnson: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (2 starts) · Maiden special weights: 0% wins, 0% in the money (3 starts)
Jockey J. Medina in sprints: 96 wins from 364 (26%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/29 LS 3f :40.40 breezing 1/1 ● bullet
10/27 LS 3f :43.00 breezing 3/3 from gate
3Uptown Top ShelfA. Birzer · J. PadillaBirzer · Padilla?3-1Fair 3-125%——?2
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Juan Padilla 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Bluegrass Breeze 5-1, R6: K Dog 3-1
Jockey switch: Dakota Wood last out, A E Birzer today. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 21 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 6f D MSW 2nd/5 -2L — 5.6-1 LB Improved position
7/19 GIL 6f D MSW 3rd/7 -¾L — 16-1 L Drop back solid stretc
7/4 LS 6f D MSW 4th/5 -8½L — 2.0-1 L 4p;outkicked for 3rd
4Gt Escape VelocityL. Huaman · T. JohnsonHuaman · Johnson?2-1Fair 2-133%——?1
Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Luis A Huaman 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Thunder Johnson 31% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: McMusic 12-1 · Trainer this race: Rich Taste Lm 4-1
Beaten 3 lengths for 3rd in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at EUR.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 23d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 6f D MSW 3rd/5 -3L — 0.9-1 L Hustled along
7/19 GIL 6f D MSW 2nd/7 — 2.0-1 L Duel pace overtaken
7/10 LS 1m D TxArOaks G3 4th/7 -7½L — 15-1 L Chased 2wd; no rally
5Kd Ladys ManN. Haar · K. DanylukHaar · Danyluk?6-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ken Danyluk 15% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Jumpingjaggerflash 10-1, R6: Tamarack 2-1 · Trainer this race: Rv Relentless 8-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Moulin Rouge Maf out of Tm Maddamee. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Sep 16.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago
Last three races
First start. By Moulin Rouge Maf out of Tm Maddamee (Burning Sand)
Jockey N. Haar in sprints: 48 wins from 356 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/13 WRD 3f :43.80 handily 2/2
9/16 LS 3f :43.20 breezing 1/2 ● bullet from gate
6Wma JoyfulJ. Jude · R. DeleonJude · Deleon?7-2Fair 9-218%——?3
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey John Jude 14% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rita Deleon 18% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
Still looking for the first win after 6 starts. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 19d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 6f D MSW 4th/5 -5½L — 9.8-1 b L No factor
7/19 GIL 6f D MSW 7th/7 -6¼L — 18-1 b L Steady retreat no fact
7/10 LS 1m D TxArOaks G3 7th/7 -17L — 30-1 b L No factor; 3wd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	6f D	Alw n2l	5th/6 -12L	—	5.3-1	b	Always outrun
7/19	GIL	6f D	MSW	6th/7 -5¼L	—	12-1	b	Early factor faded
7/4	LS	6f D	MSW	3rd/5 -8L	—	7.0-1	b	3p;won nod 3rd

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/29	LS	3f	:40.40	breezing	1/1	● bullet
10/27	LS	3f	:43.00	breezing	3/3	from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/13	WRD	3f	:43.80	handily	2/2
9/16	LS	3f	:43.20	breezing	1/2	● bullet from gate

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$30,000

Post

6:00 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 33%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Arabian

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Gt Escape Velocity (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Uptown Top Shelf at 3-1. Use #6 Wma Joyful in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 GT ESCAPE VELOCITY (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 GT ESCAPE VELOCITY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.4% to their 26.5%).
#3 UPTOWN TOP SHELF — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.6% to their 19.8%).
#6 WMA JOYFUL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Rv Relentless, #2 Rich Taste Lm, #3 Uptown Top Shelf.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Rv Relentless2Rich Taste Lm3Uptown Top Shelf4Gt Escape Velocity5Kd Ladys Man6Wma Joyful

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Rv Relentless

Uptown Top Shelf

Gt Escape Velocity

Wma Joyful

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