Pick sheet

Race 11:30 PM Clm 4000n2y

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Tall Cool One, is 25% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Tall Cool One ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▼ Down -7 ≡ Steady 59–68 ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 ▲ Rider upgrade (23% vs 14%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey N. Haar · Trainer R. Parsons · Dist 5: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 72 · 86 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	PRM	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -13L	59	28-1	LB	Inside 2nd tn;no impct
7/18	ARP	7f D	sCTBADby23k	Won/5	67	0.4-1	LB	Bumped 1/8; drew off
6/22	PRM	6f D	Clm 35k n3l	4th/5 -4L	68	21-1	LB	Off pace;2w;tn;ins str

Case: Last out 6th/7 -13L in the Alw38641n1x at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 59-67-68. Best at today's distance 72. 1-for-5 at the distance. R. Parsons / N. Haar.

Knock: Off 86 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #4 Ambrose ML 7-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey A. Birzer · Trainer B. Birzer · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 6: 1-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 74 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	rClm5000	Won/6	74	2.3-1	LB	Dueled along
9/20	PRM	6f D	sClm10000n2l	3rd/6 -5L	60	6.9-1	LB	Bid 1/4;along for show
9/7	PRM	6f D	sClm20000n2l	4th/5 -5¼L	60	4.8-1	LB	3wd upper;no threat

Case: Last out won in the rClm5000 at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 74-60-60. Best at today's distance 74. 1-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. B. Birzer / A. Birzer.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #3 Shesacinch ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 67–70 ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 Last out 4th/6 -3L in the rClm5000 at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 67-67-68. Best at today's distance 72. 1-for-14 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Eureka. T. Gleason / C. Alvarado. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey C. Alvarado · Trainer T. Gleason · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 14: 1-1-4 · best fig at 6f dirt 72 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	rClm5000	4th/6 -3L	67	3.6-1	b LB	Early effort; faded
10/18	EUR	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	4th/8 -2L	67	2.5-1	b LB	Even throughout
9/18	PRM	5½f D	Clm 6k n1y	4th/6 -5L	68	3.0-1	b LB	Off pace;3w;no threat

Longshot #2 My Man Biggie ML 15-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 38–77

Jockey J. Coates · Trainer C. McVay · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 5: 0-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 51 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	6th/8 -3½L	51	4.7-1	b LB	No factor
8/1	ARP	6f D	OC 8k	6th/6 -17L	38	9.2-1	b LB	Step slow;ins;faltered
3/13	TUP	1m D	OC 16k n1x	5th/5 -23L	41	9.7-1	b L	Outrun; showed little

Case: Last out 6th/8 -3½L in the Clm5000n1y at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 51-38-41. Best at today's distance 51. 0-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. C. McVay / J. Coates.

Knock: 0-for-5 at the distance.

★ Distance horse: #6 Panuco (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 76 from 4 tries, record at the distance 10: 2-2-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #8 · B #1, #5, #6 · C #2, #7

Angles: #1 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #1 Rider upgrade (23% vs 14%) cutting back to a sprint · #3 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #4 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #5 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #5 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 72) · #7 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

R1 EUR · Claiming $4,000

1:30 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $11,000 · 8 runners1:30 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $11K · Claiming $4,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Panuco (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 76 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Tall Cool One▼▲N. Haar · R. ParsonsHaar · ParsonsB59 67 68▼-7≡@trip 725-2Fair 3-125%▼ Down -759 67 68 ≡@trip 72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Rider upgrade (23% vs 14%) cutting back to a sprint1

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 59–68 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 67 68

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Rider upgrade (23% vs 14%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Riley Parsons 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Breathtaking Folly 5-1, R7: Our Fancy Nancy 5-1, R8: Palace Guard 8-5, R10: Like Moulin Rouge 15-1 · Trainer R8: All About Mischief 3-1

60D LAYOFF

Class relief: allowance last time, $4,000 claiming today. Finished 6th in a 7-horse allowance race at PRM, beaten 13 lengths.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 3d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	PRM	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -13L	59	28-1	LB	Inside 2nd tn;no impct
7/18	ARP	7f D	sCTBADby23k	Won/5	67	0.4-1	LB	Bumped 1/8; drew off
6/22	PRM	6f D	Clm 35k n3l	4th/5 -4L	68	21-1	LB	Off pace;2w;tn;ins str

2My Man BiggieLSJ. Coates · C. McVayCoates · McVayC51 38 41►↕@trip 5115-1Fair 12-17%► Steady51 38 41 ↕@trip 51CLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–77 · Best fig at today's trip 51 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 38 41

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey J R Coates 29% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cameron Simpson McVay 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Stetsonsnstilettos 8-1, R6: Arizona Reina 4-1, R10: Majd Storm 12-1 · Trainer R4: Stetsonsnstilettos 8-1, R6: Arizona Reina 4-1, R7: Pretty Red 20-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 77, with 76 next best. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 48 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	6th/8 -3½L	51	4.7-1	b LB	No factor
8/1	ARP	6f D	OC 8k	6th/6 -17L	38	9.2-1	b LB	Step slow;ins;faltered
3/13	TUP	1m D	OC 16k n1x	5th/5 -23L	41	9.7-1	b L	Outrun; showed little

3Shesacinch▼C. Alvarado · T. GleasonAlvarado · GleasonA67 67 68►≡@trip 724-1Fair 5-117%► Steady67 67 68 ≡@trip 72A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 793

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–70 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 67 68

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Cristian Alvarado 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Tyrone Gleason 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Let's Race Uhh Huh 9-2, R7: Miss Dixie Belle 20-1, R8: Pops Reward 12-1 · Trainer R4: Let's Race Uhh Huh 9-2, R8: Pops Reward 12-1, R8: Palace Guard 8-5

Turns back in 7 days. Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 90d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	rClm5000	4th/6 -3L	67	3.6-1	b LB	Early effort; faded
10/18	EUR	6f D	Clm 5k n1y	4th/8 -2L	67	2.5-1	b LB	Even throughout
9/18	PRM	5½f D	Clm 6k n1y	4th/6 -5L	68	3.0-1	b LB	Off pace;3w;no threat

4Ambrose▼A. Birzer · B. BirzerBirzer · BirzerA74 60 60▲▲+12@trip 747-2Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best74 60 60@trip 74A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 792

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 60 60

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Bonnie Birzer 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Myjerseysaysgood 3-1, R6: Hurts So Good 5-2, R8: Title Contender 5-1, R10: Uptown Trumpthess 4-1 · Trainer R4: Myjerseysaysgood 3-1, R8: Title Contender 5-1, R8: Helado 8-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at EUR. Drops from $5,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	6f D	rClm5000	Won/6	74	2.3-1	LB	Dueled along
9/20	PRM	6f D	sClm10000n2l	3rd/6 -5L	60	6.9-1	LB	Bid 1/4;along for show
9/7	PRM	6f D	sClm20000n2l	4th/5 -5¼L	60	4.8-1	LB	3wd upper;no threat

5Perscripture▼▼D. Goodface · C. StortzumGoodface · StortzumB70 57 63▲▲+9@trip 7010-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best70 57 63@trip 70B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 70 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 57 63
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Daniel Goodface 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cady Stortzum 16% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R7: Hope Restored 10-1, R8: Helado 8-1 · Trainer R4: Watashi 10-1, R7: Hope Restored 10-1
A 70 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Winless in 14 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 71d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 6f D Alw n3l 5th/6 -2½L 70 11-1 LB Faded
9/24 PRM 6f D Clm 5k b 8th/9 -9½L 57 57-1 LB 5-w turn;no threat
9/13 PRM 6f D Clm 10k n3l 4th/4 -5L 63 20-1 LB Step slw st;no threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	6f D	Alw n3l	5th/6 -2½L	70	11-1	LB	Faded
9/24	PRM	6f D	Clm 5k b	8th/9 -9½L	57	57-1	LB	5-w turn;no threat
9/13	PRM	6f D	Clm 10k n3l	4th/4 -5L	63	20-1	LB	Step slw st;no threat

6Panuco▼★L. Delorme · K. KemperDelorme · KemperB62 72 67▼▼-10@trip 7612-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1062 72 67@trip 76B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 72)★ Best at the trip 76

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 72 67

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 72)★ Best at the trip 76

Jockey L Delorme 29% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Kerry Kemper 24% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Beers On Me 2-1, R6: Bc Seperate Interest 12-1, R7: Country Sonata 4-1 · Trainer R4: Beers On Me 2-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLECLASS DROP

Was 8th of 8 at the first call last time. Fastest 3F work of its morning on May 9 (:35.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.00 on May 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	SWF	6f D	Clm 4k b	4th/8 -3¼L	62	3.2-1	b LB	Bore out 1T;moved up
6/6	LS	6f D	Clm 7k n2y	6th/8 -4½L	72	9.7-1	b L	Up close; flattened ou
5/23	LS	6½f D	Clm 5k b	5th/7 -7½L	67	6.3-1	b L	Held up;pulld;outfnshd

7Whip▼J. Medina · J. HaleMedina · HaleC67 58 62▲+5≡@trip 6315-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +567 58 62 ≡@trip 63C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 58–67 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 58 62
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 4-for-13 on dirt this meet (31%), #1 of 6 · Trainer James Victor Hale 19% career
Also today · Jockey R4: K K's First Dance 20-1, R6: Shake Up 7-2, R7: Mamie D 2-1, R8: All About Mischief 3-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Goes 6 furlongs after running 4 furlongs last time. The Mar 15 work, 3F in :36.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Mar 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 4f D Clm 5k n1y 3rd/4 -4½L 67 2.9-1 b LB Hustled along
10/8 RP 6f D sClm5000b 7th/10 -5L 58 43-1 b L Vied 3w; gave way
9/27 RP 5f D Clm 5k b 4th/6 -2L 62 21-1 b L Inside; no menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k n1y	3rd/4 -4½L	67	2.9-1	b LB	Hustled along
10/8	RP	6f D	sClm5000b	7th/10 -5L	58	43-1	b L	Vied 3w; gave way
9/27	RP	5f D	Clm 5k b	4th/6 -2L	62	21-1	b L	Inside; no menace

8Holiday FantasyD. Aguilar · J. SchindlerAguilar · SchindlerA75 61 64▲▲+108-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best75 61 64A

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 75 61 64

Jockey Daniel Aguilar 30% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jeff Schindler 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Ez Fitz 6-1 · Trainer R6: Hurts So Good 5-2, R6: Shake Up 7-2

Changes barns, from Tim Padilla to Jeff Schindler. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 160d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	CBY	1m D	Clm 4k b	3rd/7 -6L	75	36-1	b L	Ins turns;best of rest
9/6	CBY	1m D	Clm 4k b	3rd/5 -3½L	61	7.3-1	b L	Hop st;bid5w;willingly
8/22	CBY	7f D	Clm 4k b	5th/5 -7½L	64	9.0-1	b L	Hard urged 2p 2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$11,000

Post

1:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 25%

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 72.0

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Tall Cool One (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 59 · 67 · 68. Backup is #4 Ambrose at 7-2. Use #3 Shesacinch in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 TALL COOL ONE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 TALL COOL ONE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 25.7%).
#4 AMBROSE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 20.0%).
#3 SHESACINCH — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 18.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Ambrose; pressure from #3 Shesacinch, #7 Whip; the shape helps #1 Tall Cool One, #3 Shesacinch, #6 Panuco; and works against #4 Ambrose.

Lead

4Ambrose86

Press

3Shesacinch867Whip851Tall Cool One82

Stalk

6Panuco74

5Perscripture862My Man Biggie838Holiday Fantasy77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Shesacinch

Ambrose

Whip

Tall Cool One

Panuco

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Holiday Fantasy

My Man Biggie

Perscripture

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