Pick sheet

Race 64:00 PM Clm 7500

4.0F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Shake Up, is 37% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #8 Shake Up ML 7-2 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▲ Up +5

Jockey J. Medina · Trainer J. Schindler · KEE 2: 2-0-0 · Dist 2: 2-0-0 · best fig at 3.95455f dirt 73 · 7 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	3.95455f D	Clm 7k	Won/7 by 5¼	73	2.1-1	b L	Late rally
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k n1y	Won/4	69	2.1-1	b L	Lead throughout
7/12	HAW	5f T	Clm 12k	2nd/7 -3L	75	23-1	b L	Ins; kept on; no match

Case: Last out won in the Clm7500 at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 73-69-75. Best at today's distance 73. 2-for-2 at the distance. 2-for-2 at Eureka. J. Schindler / J. Medina.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Arizona Reina ML 4-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +3 ↕ Up and down 60–85 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 85)

Jockey J. Coates · Trainer C. McVay · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-1-1 · best fig at 3.95455f dirt 85 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	4f D	frClm7500	Won/6 by hd	75	3.5-1	b LB	Driving finish
8/15	ARP	3.95455f D	Alw b	3rd/6 -2¾L	85	9.0-1	b LB	3-w turn; evenly
8/8	ARP	6f D	Alw b	5th/6 -10L	60	5.2-1	b LB	Went evenly; no menace

Case: Last out won in the frClm7500 at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 75-85-60. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. C. McVay / J. Coates.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #7 Detective Bernardo ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -15 ★ Best at 3.95455f dirt: 87 ↕ Up and down 63–87 Last out 3rd in the Clm5000 at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 63-72-87. Best at today's distance 87. 5-for-11 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. A. Turner / L. Huaman. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Huaman · Trainer A. Turner · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 11: 5-3-2 · best fig at 3.95455f dirt 87 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k	3rd/5 -1½L	63	2.2-1	b LB	Even effort
8/29	GIL	4f D	Clm 4k	Won/8	72	3.1-1	b L	Quick lead in hand
7/5	GIL	3.95455f D	Clm 5k	Won/8 by ½	87	4.4-1	b L	Duel inside late kick

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #7 · B #2, #4, #8 · C #3, #6

Angles: #1 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 85)

R6 EUR · Claiming $7,500

4:00 PM ET · 870 Yards Dirt · $18,000 · 6 runners (2 out)4:00 PM · 4.0f Dirt · 6 runners (2 out)

Official $18K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Arizona Reina▼Ran 2ndJ. Coates · C. McVayCoates · McVayA75 85 60▲+3↕@trip 854-1Fair 5-227%▲ Up +375 85 60 ↕@trip 85A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 85)2

Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 85 60

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 85)

Jockey J R Coates 29% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cameron Simpson McVay 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: My Man Biggie 15-1, R4: Stetsonsnstilettos 8-1, R10: Majd Storm 12-1 · Trainer R1: My Man Biggie 15-1, R4: Stetsonsnstilettos 8-1, R7: Pretty Red 20-1

WON LAST

Winner of a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at EUR last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	4f D	frClm7500	Won/6 by hd	75	3.5-1	b LB	Driving finish
8/15	ARP	3.95455f D	Alw b	3rd/6 -2¾L	85	9.0-1	b LB	3-w turn; evenly
8/8	ARP	6f D	Alw b	5th/6 -10L	60	5.2-1	b LB	Went evenly; no menace

2Pete Be RowdyRan 5thA. Stanley · G. WalkerStanley · WalkerB80 83 72▲+6@trip 8315-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +680 83 72@trip 83B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 83 72

Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Gary K Walker 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Skidaddle Dash 8-1, R7: Shosweet 3-1, R10: Ekonia 15-1

Class relief: $10,000 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today. Finished 5th in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at WRD, beaten 10 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 40d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	3.95455f D	Clm 10k n2l	5th/7 -10L	80	11-1	b L	Settled;by tired foes
9/29	WRD	3.95455f D	Alw n2l	2nd/8 -3L	83	11-1	b L	Inside;held for 2nd
7/18	FMT	3.95455f D	Alw n2l	2nd/7 -3L	72	14-1	b L	3-4w;along for 2nd

3BoldishA. Ortiz · T. AndersonOrtiz · AndersonC68 74 72▲+4↕6-1<1%▲ Up +468 74 72 ↕C

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–74 · Last 3 figs 68 74 72

Jockey Alvin Ortiz 37% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Tracy Anderson 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Dublin Drop 6-1 · Trainer R7: Dublin Drop 6-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 134 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Harold Mosier to Tracy Anderson.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (4-5w turn; bid; outkickd), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 23; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/20	FPK	6f D	Clm 4k b	2nd/7	68	3.3-1	L	4-5w turn;bid;outkickd
10/7	FPK	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k n1my	3rd/7	74	1.7-1	L	Bid 3p far turn;ran on
9/13	FPK	1 1/16 D	Alw s	3rd/7 -4L	72	13-1	L	3-w 2nd; along for 3rd

4Mr Secret LeeLSRan 6thJ. Valenzuela Jr. · A. JonesValenzuela Jr. · JonesB68 84 66▼-5@trip 8412-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -568 84 66@trip 84BLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 84 66

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey John Raul Jr Valenzuela 35% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anthony G Jones 25% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Gravel N Grace 20-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Returns from a 99-day break. Purse drops from $25,875 to $18,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 27; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/25	WYO	3.95455f D	BearRiverS26k	8th/8 -4¾L	68	24-1	b LB	Outran
7/11	WYO	3.95455f D	Alw nc	4th/8 by nk	84	28-1	b LB	Forward inside; empty
6/6	DED	3.95455f D	sClm5000	6th/6 -5¼L	66	4.6-1	b L	Wide turn; no kick

5Hurts So GoodA. Birzer · J. SchindlerBirzer · SchindlerA85 64 59▲▲+23↕@trip 525-2<1%▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best85 64 59 ↕@trip 52A
Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–85 · Best fig at today's trip 52 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 64 59
Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Jeff Schindler 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Ambrose 7-2, R4: Myjerseysaysgood 3-1, R8: Title Contender 5-1, R10: Uptown Trumpthess 4-1 · Trainer R1: Holiday Fantasy 8-1, this race: Shake Up 7-2
Back to 870 yards off a 1320 yards race. Figures are climbing: 59, 64, 85 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 3d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 ATO 6f D Clm 5k n2y 2nd/4 85 1.3-1 LB 2path; no match late
8/23 HCN 5f D Clm 3k Won/5 64 0.6-1 LB 2-4path; drew clear
8/8 HCN 6f D Clm 5k n2y 5th/6 -½L 59 1.1-1 LB Duel 2-3path; empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	ATO	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	2nd/4	85	1.3-1	LB	2path; no match late
8/23	HCN	5f D	Clm 3k	Won/5	64	0.6-1	LB	2-4path; drew clear
8/8	HCN	6f D	Clm 5k n2y	5th/6 -½L	59	1.1-1	LB	Duel 2-3path; empty

6Bc Seperate InterestRan 3rdL. Delorme · K. ClarkDelorme · ClarkC72 78 53▲+4↕@trip 7812-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +472 78 53 ↕@trip 78C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 78 53

Jockey L Delorme 29% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Kirt Clark 34% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Panuco 12-1, R4: Beers On Me 2-1, R7: Country Sonata 4-1 · Trainer R4: K K's First Dance 20-1

Was 8th of 8 at the first call last time. 8th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 34d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/27	WRD	3.95455f D	Alw n3l	8th/8 -11L	72	31-1	b L	Outside;7p uppr;no bid
10/5	WRD	3.95455f D	Alw n3l	3rd/6 -3L	78	33-1	b L	Angld out;kept on late
8/21	RET	3.95455f D	Alw n3l	7th/7 -10L	53	36-1	b L	No factor

7Detective Bernardo★Ran 4thL. Huaman · A. TurnerHuaman · TurnerA63 72 87▼▼-15↕@trip 879-2Fair 5-117%▼▼ Big drop -1563 72 87 ↕@trip 87A★ Best at the trip 873
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 72 87
★ Best at the trip 87
Jockey Luis A Huaman 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Alvin L Turner 26% career
Also today · Jockey R10: Masqueradesobia 4-5
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 85 next best. New trainer: Steve Roubion had it last time, Alvin L Turner now.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 154d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 EUR 4f D Clm 5k 3rd/5 -1½L 63 2.2-1 b LB Even effort
8/29 GIL 4f D Clm 4k Won/8 72 3.1-1 b L Quick lead in hand
7/5 GIL 3.95455f D Clm 5k Won/8 by ½ 87 4.4-1 b L Duel inside late kick

8Shake UpRan 1stJ. Medina · J. SchindlerMedina · SchindlerB73 69 75▲+5@trip 737-2Fair 9-536%▲ Up +573 69 75@trip 73B1

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 69 75

Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 4-for-13 on dirt this meet (31%), #1 of 6 · Trainer Jeff Schindler 26% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Whip 15-1, R4: K K's First Dance 20-1, R7: Mamie D 2-1, R8: All About Mischief 3-1 · Trainer R1: Holiday Fantasy 8-1, this race: Hurts So Good 5-2

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at EUR at 2.1-1. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	EUR	3.95455f D	Clm 7k	Won/7 by 5¼	73	2.1-1	b L	Late rally
10/17	EUR	4f D	Clm 5k n1y	Won/4	69	2.1-1	b L	Lead throughout
7/12	HAW	5f T	Clm 12k	2nd/7 -3L	75	23-1	b L	Ins; kept on; no match

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #8 Shake Up, won.

1st8Shake UpWin$4.80Place$3.80Show$3.00Our #1

2nd1Arizona ReinaWin—Place$4.20Show$2.80Our #2

3rd6Bc Seperate InterestWin—Place—Show$4.00Our #5

4th7Detective BernardoOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

4:00 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#8 · 36%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 870 Yards: 45.55

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Shake Up (a tactical type, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 73 · 69 · 75. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Arizona Reina at 4-1. Use #7 Detective Bernardo in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Shake Up won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#8 SHAKE UP	1st
#2	#1 ARIZONA REINA	2nd
#3	#7 DETECTIVE BERNARDO	4th
#4	#4 MR SECRET LEE	6th
#5	#6 BC SEPERATE INTEREST	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#8 Shake Up	our #1
2nd	#1 Arizona Reina	our #2
3rd	#6 Bc Seperate Interest	our #5
4th	#7 Detective Bernardo	our #3
5th	#2 Pete Be Rowdy	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 HURTS SO GOOD (5-2) — our number has it ranked #7.
#8 SHAKE UP — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 27.8%, they've got 17.8%.
#1 ARIZONA REINA — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.5%, they've got 16.0%.
#7 DETECTIVE BERNARDO — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.4%, they've got 14.6%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#8 SHAKE UP — we make it 27.8%, the morning line works out to 17.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 ARIZONA REINA — we make it 25.5%, the morning line works out to 16.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 DETECTIVE BERNARDO — we make it 22.4%, the morning line works out to 14.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 MR SECRET LEE (12-1) — our fair 8.8% is above the morning line's 6.2%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Arizona Reina, #2 Pete Be Rowdy, #3 Boldish.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

5Hurts So Good911Arizona Reina867Detective Bernardo863Boldish802Pete Be Rowdy4Mr Secret Lee6Bc Seperate Interest8Shake Up

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Hurts So Good

Arizona Reina

Detective Bernardo

Boldish

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Boldish

Arizona Reina

Pete Be Rowdy

Mr Secret Lee

Bc Seperate Interest

Detective Bernardo

Shake Up

Hurts So Good

-2

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