Pick sheet

Race 74:30 PM Md Sp WtLate Pick 4 starts

7F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Mamie D, is 28% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Mamie D ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey J. Medina · Trainer D. Cummins · 108 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/16	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/5 -3½L	47	1.6-1	b	3-w; strong finish
7/3	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/5 -5L	44	10-1	b	Bothered st;kept on
6/18	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/5 -11L	42	8.5-1	b	Mild rally; no menace

Case: Last out 2nd in the fsMdSpWt at FMT. Last Brisnet figures 47-44-42. D. Cummins / J. Medina.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6½f). Off 108 days.

Contender #7 Shosweet ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 77 ▲ Lone speed on early pace 1st-time Lasix

Jockey A. Stanley · Trainer B. Delong · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	FPK	6f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/7 -1L	63	4.1-1	b	Cued rail5/16;faded1/8
9/15	FPK	6f D	MSW	3rd/7 -2½L	52	11-1	b	Swv;took ov 5/8; tired

Case: Last out 3rd in the fsMdSpWt at FPK. Last Brisnet figures 63-52. B. Delong / A. Stanley.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Eureka.

Use #2 Country Sonata ML 4-1 Fair 7-2 Model #3 ► Steady ★ Best at 7f dirt: 53 ▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77 Last out 3rd in the fMdSpWt at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 48-53-45. Best at today's distance 53. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. V. Long / L. Delorme. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Jockey L. Delorme · Trainer V. Long · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 7f dirt 53 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	7f D	MSW	3rd/7 -4L	48	7.3-1	LB	Dueled for lead
10/7	ALB	7f D	MCL 10k	5th/8 -7L	53	21-1	b L	Svd grnd;even effort
8/7	ARP	5½f D	MSW	5th/6 -8½L	45	8.5-1	b LB	3-4wd; no response

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #7 · B #1, #5, #8 · C #4, #6

Angles: #1 Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #2 Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #3 Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #4 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (34 vs 41) · #5 Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #6 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (21 vs 52) · #7 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #7 Lone speed on early pace · #8 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 77

R7 EUR · Maiden Special Weight

4:30 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $30,000 · 8 runners4:30 PM · 7f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $30K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Our Fancy Nancy▼Ran 3rdN. Haar · J. IbarraHaar · IbarraB35 39 11▲▲+8↕@trip 355-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +835 39 11 ↕@trip 35B▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 11–39 · Best fig at today's trip 35 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 35 39 11
▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Ibarra 34% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Tall Cool One 5-2, R4: Breathtaking Folly 5-1, R8: Palace Guard 8-5, R10: Like Moulin Rouge 15-1 · Trainer R2: Lil Racy Girl 9-2, R4: Breathtaking Folly 5-1
Best recent figure is 39, well under the 77 par for this level. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 14d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 EUR 7f D MSW 5th/7 -9½L 35 4.9-1 LB Chased
8/30 ATO 6f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/5 -4L 39 6.0-1 b LB Chase 3wd; no rally
8/16 HCN 6f D fsMdSpWt 5th/5 -13L 11 9.2-1 b LB Quick break; tired
2Country Sonata▼★Ran 1stL. Delorme · V. LongDelorme · LongA48 53 45►@trip 534-1Fair 7-221%► Steady48 53 45@trip 53A▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77★ Best at the trip 533
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 53 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 53 45
▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77★ Best at the trip 53
Jockey L Delorme 29% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Vaughn Long 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Panuco 12-1, R4: Beers On Me 2-1, R6: Bc Seperate Interest 12-1
3rd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 7. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 2)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 45d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 EUR 7f D MSW 3rd/7 -4L 48 7.3-1 LB Dueled for lead
10/7 ALB 7f D MCL 10k 5th/8 -7L 53 21-1 b L Svd grnd;even effort
8/7 ARP 5½f D MSW 5th/6 -8½L 45 8.5-1 b LB 3-4wd; no response

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	7f D	MSW	5th/7 -9½L	35	4.9-1	LB	Chased
8/30	ATO	6f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/5 -4L	39	6.0-1	b LB	Chase 3wd; no rally
8/16	HCN	6f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/5 -13L	11	9.2-1	b LB	Quick break; tired

3Mamie D▼Ran 7thJ. Medina · D. CumminsMedina · CumminsA47 44 42►2-1Fair 5-228%► Steady47 44 42A▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 771

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 47 44 42

▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Jose Angel Medina 35% career 4-for-13 on dirt this meet (31%), #1 of 6 · Trainer David Cummins 20% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Whip 15-1, R4: K K's First Dance 20-1, R6: Shake Up 7-2, R8: All About Mischief 3-1 · Trainer R4: Pokey 15-1

60D LAYOFF

A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. Freshened 108 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 14d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/16	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/5 -3½L	47	1.6-1	b	3-w; strong finish
7/3	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/5 -5L	44	10-1	b	Bothered st;kept on
6/18	FMT	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	3rd/5 -11L	42	8.5-1	b	Mild rally; no menace

4Hope Restored▼Ran 6thD. Goodface · C. StortzumGoodface · StortzumC34 41 56▼▼-24↕@trip 3410-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2434 41 56 ↕@trip 34C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (34 vs 41)
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -24 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 34–77 · Best fig at today's trip 34 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 34 41 56
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (34 vs 41)
Jockey Daniel Goodface 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cady Stortzum 16% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Perscripture 10-1, R8: Helado 8-1 · Trainer R1: Perscripture 10-1, R4: Watashi 10-1
Changes barns, from Riley Dean Seaton to Cady Stortzum. Trending the wrong way on speed, 56 to 41 to 34.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 24d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 EUR 7f D MSW 6th/7 -10L 34 5.8-1 LB Outrun
8/25 IND 5½f D MCL 10k 5th/5 -15L 41 2.8-1 b L No factor
9/14 CD 1 1/16 D MCL 30k 7th/8 -16L 56 47-1 b L Trailed; no impact

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	7f D	MSW	6th/7 -10L	34	5.8-1	LB	Outrun
8/25	IND	5½f D	MCL 10k	5th/5 -15L	41	2.8-1	b L	No factor
9/14	CD	1 1/16 D	MCL 30k	7th/8 -16L	56	47-1	b L	Trailed; no impact

5Miss Dixie Belle▼Ran 5thC. Alvarado · S. MartinAlvarado · MartinB39 51 41▲▲+11↕20-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +1139 51 41 ↕B▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures -8–51 · Last 3 figs 39 51 41

▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Cristian Alvarado 34% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Steve Martin 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Shesacinch 4-1, R4: Let's Race Uhh Huh 9-2, R8: Pops Reward 12-1

Moves up from maiden claiming $10,000 to maiden special weight. Gets a new rider, Cristian Alvarado replacing L S Quinonez.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	RP	6f D	MCL 10k	7th/8 -15L	39	16-1	L	3 wide turn; no factor
9/25	RP	6f D	MCL 7k	3rd/7 -½L	51	21-1	L	Dueled; 2w; faltered
9/12	RP	5½f D	MCL 30k	4th/4 -11L	41	23-1	L	Brief speed; gave way

6Pretty Red▼▼Ran 8thX. Pickner · C. McVayPickner · McVayC21 52 19▼-3↕@trip 2120-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -321 52 19 ↕@trip 21C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (21 vs 52)
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 2–52 · Best fig at today's trip 21 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 21 52 19
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 77▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (21 vs 52)
Jockey Xavier Pickner 17% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cameron Simpson McVay 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R1: My Man Biggie 15-1, R4: Stetsonsnstilettos 8-1, R6: Arizona Reina 4-1
Still looking for the first win after 8 starts. Finished 7th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at EUR, beaten 15 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 EUR 7f D MSW 7th/7 -15L 21 12-1 LB Outrun
8/8 ARP 4.54545f D MSW 8th/8 -14L 52 18-1 b LB No factor;outrun
7/26 ARP 5½f D MCL 4k 6th/6 -8½L 19 8.0-1 b LB Saved ground; no avail
7Shosweet▼▲Ran 4thA. Stanley · B. DelongStanley · DelongA63 523-1Fair 7-223%—63 52A▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 63 52
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Skidaddle Dash 8-1, R6: Pete Be Rowdy 15-1, R10: Ekonia 15-1
LASIX 1ST
Goes 7 furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 63 against a 77 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 1 (4F in :48.40), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 FPK 6f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/7 -1L 63 4.1-1 b Cued rail5/16;faded1/8
9/15 FPK 6f D MSW 3rd/7 -2½L 52 11-1 b Swv;took ov 5/8; tired
8Dublin Drop▼Ran 2ndA. Ortiz · T. AndersonOrtiz · AndersonB59 49 55▲+56-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +5 · career best59 49 55B▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Last 3 figs 59 49 55
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Alvin Ortiz 37% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Tracy Anderson 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R6: Boldish 6-1 · Trainer R6: Boldish 6-1
Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7 furlongs. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Off rail; drift 6w; fade. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 108 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 FPK 5½f D MSW 4th/6 -½L 59 4.3-1 Off rail;drift 6w;fade
9/15 FPK 6f D MSW 4th/7 -5½L 49 2.1-1 Carried in st;mild bid
8/25 FPK 5½f D MSW 2nd/6 -2L 55 0.7-1 Inside trip; held 2nd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	7f D	MSW	7th/7 -15L	21	12-1	LB	Outrun
8/8	ARP	4.54545f D	MSW	8th/8 -14L	52	18-1	b LB	No factor;outrun
7/26	ARP	5½f D	MCL 4k	6th/6 -8½L	19	8.0-1	b LB	Saved ground; no avail

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/10	FPK	5½f D	MSW	4th/6 -½L	59	4.3-1	Off rail;drift 6w;fade
9/15	FPK	6f D	MSW	4th/7 -5½L	49	2.1-1	Carried in st;mild bid
8/25	FPK	5½f D	MSW	2nd/6 -2L	55	0.7-1	Inside trip; held 2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Mamie D, finished 7th.

1st2Country SonataWin$22.60Place$7.20Show$4.80Our #3

2nd8Dublin DropWin—Place$9.00Show$5.40Our #5

3rd1Our Fancy NancyWin—Place—Show$5.40Our #4

4th7ShosweetOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$30,000

Post

4:30 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 28%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 84.8

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Mamie D (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 47 · 44 · 42. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Shosweet at 3-1. Use #2 Country Sonata in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Country Sonata (our #3) won · top pick Mamie D ran 7th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (7th)
✗ Our top 3 finished 7th, 4th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 MAMIE D	7th
#2	#7 SHOSWEET	4th
#3	#2 COUNTRY SONATA	1st
#4	#1 OUR FANCY NANCY	3rd
#5	#8 DUBLIN DROP	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#2 Country Sonata	our #3
2nd	#8 Dublin Drop	our #5
3rd	#1 Our Fancy Nancy	our #4
4th	#7 Shosweet	our #2
5th	#5 Miss Dixie Belle	our #8

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 MAMIE D (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 MAMIE D — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.2% to their 26.1%).
#7 SHOSWEET — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.5%).
#2 COUNTRY SONATA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Shosweet; pressure from #8 Dublin Drop, #5 Miss Dixie Belle; the shape helps #1 Our Fancy Nancy, #3 Mamie D; and works against #2 Country Sonata, #4 Hope Restored, #5 Miss Dixie Belle.

Lead

7Shosweet928Dublin Drop895Miss Dixie Belle822Country Sonata81

Press

none

Stalk

none

1Our Fancy Nancy803Mamie D75

No style yet

6Pretty Red774Hope Restored75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Shosweet

Dublin Drop

Miss Dixie Belle

Country Sonata

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Our Fancy Nancy

Mamie D

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 WIN; PLACE; SHOW

$2 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8)

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