Pick sheet

Race 106:00 PM OClm 30000n3l

6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Masqueradesobia, is 45% to win (morning line implies 46%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #6 Masqueradesobia ML 4-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1

Jockey L. Huaman · Trainer T. Johnson · Dist 4: 1-2-0 · 126 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/28	LS	6f D	OC 30k n3x	2nd/6 by hd	—	4.6-1	b L	4w;bid1/4;2nd best
6/5	LS	7f D	OC 20k n3x	Won/7	—	19-1	b L	Repelled bids;clr late
5/1	LS	6f D	OC 20k n3x	2nd/6 -3½L	—	12-1	b L	Tk up st;adv;mv up2nd

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC30000n3x at LS. 1-for-4 at the distance. T. Johnson / L. Huaman.

Knock: Off 126 days. Never raced at Eureka.

Contender #1 Uptown Trumpthess ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2

Jockey A. Birzer · Trainer J. Padilla · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 4: 1-1-0 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	6f D	Alw n2l	2nd/6 by hd	—	4.8-1	b L	Dueled throughout
8/16	GIL	6f D	TABASprin20k	6th/10 -3L	—	13-1	b L	Vied lead weakened
7/4	LS	6f D	MSW	Won/5	—	1.4-1	b L	Sent;kept to task

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw25000n2l at EUR. 1-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. J. Padilla / A. Birzer.

Knock: No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Use #3 Wma Madjic Slippers ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 Last out won in the Alw25000n2l at EUR. 1-for-12 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Eureka. R. Deleon / J. Jude. Knock: No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Jude · Trainer R. Deleon · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 12: 1-0-3 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	6f D	Alw n2l	Won/6	—	2.7-1	B	Improved position
8/16	GIL	6f D	TABASprin20k	5th/10 -5½L	—	11-1		Back early some effort
6/19	LS	6f D	sAlw24500n3l	3rd/6 -9½L	—	13-1		Lagged;moved up 3rd

Longshot #4 Majd Storm ML 12-1 Fair 10-1 Model #4

Jockey J. Coates · Trainer R. Deleon · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 8: 0-2-2 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	6f D	Alw n2l	3rd/6 -3L	—	4.0-1	b L	Led early
8/16	GIL	6f D	TABASprin20k	4th/10 -3½L	—	15-1	b L	Steady move solid try
7/10	LS	1 1/16 D	TxArDrby G2	6th/9 -6½L	—	41-1	b L	No factor; 4wd

Case: Last out 3rd in the Alw25000n2l at EUR. 0-for-8 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Eureka. R. Deleon / J. Coates.

Knock: 0-for-8 at the distance. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Narrowing the field: A · ? #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #5 Rider upgrade (15% vs 10%) cutting back to a sprint

R10 EUR · Optional Claiming $30,000

6:00 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $26,000 · 6 runners6:00 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Official $26K · Optional Claiming $30,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Uptown TrumpthessRan 6thA. Birzer · J. PadillaBirzer · Padilla?4-1Fair 4-119%——?2
Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Juan Padilla 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Ambrose 7-2, R4: Myjerseysaysgood 3-1, R6: Hurts So Good 5-2, R8: Title Contender 5-1
Finished 2nd in a 6-horse allowance race at EUR, beaten a head. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Dueled throughout. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 15 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 EUR 6f D Alw n2l 2nd/6 by hd — 4.8-1 b L Dueled throughout
8/16 GIL 6f D TABASprin20k 6th/10 -3L — 13-1 b L Vied lead weakened
7/4 LS 6f D MSW Won/5 — 1.4-1 b L Sent;kept to task
2Like Moulin RougeRan 4thN. Haar · K. DanylukHaar · Danyluk?15-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Nathan Haar 30% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Ken Danyluk 15% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Tall Cool One 5-2, R4: Breathtaking Folly 5-1, R7: Our Fancy Nancy 5-1, R8: Palace Guard 8-5
60D LAYOFF
149 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Moves up from optional claiming to allowance optional claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 2d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/5 LS 7f D OC 20k n3x 6th/7 -10L — 22-1 b L No factor;
5/1 LS 6f D OC 20k n3x 6th/6 -6½L — 20-1 b L Trailed; chased
4/4 HOU 7f D Alw b 5th/5 -3½L — 16-1 b L Sttld3w;bid7/16;flatnd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/5	LS	7f D	OC 20k n3x	6th/7 -10L	—	22-1	b L	No factor;
5/1	LS	6f D	OC 20k n3x	6th/6 -6½L	—	20-1	b L	Trailed; chased
4/4	HOU	7f D	Alw b	5th/5 -3½L	—	16-1	b L	Sttld3w;bid7/16;flatnd

3Wma Madjic SlippersRan 2ndJ. Jude · R. DeleonJude · Deleon?3-1Fair 9-218%——?3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier ?

Jockey John Jude 14% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rita Deleon 18% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Majd Storm 12-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse allowance race at EUR. Turns back in 8 days.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 20d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	6f D	Alw n2l	Won/6	—	2.7-1	B	Improved position
8/16	GIL	6f D	TABASprin20k	5th/10 -5½L	—	11-1		Back early some effort
6/19	LS	6f D	sAlw24500n3l	3rd/6 -9½L	—	13-1		Lagged;moved up 3rd

4Majd StormLSRan 5thJ. Coates · R. DeleonCoates · Deleon?12-1Fair 10-110%——?LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey J R Coates 29% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rita Deleon 18% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: My Man Biggie 15-1, R4: Stetsonsnstilettos 8-1, R6: Arizona Reina 4-1 · Trainer this race: Wma Madjic Slippers 3-1

Winless in 8 starts at this distance. Went to the front early last out.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 20d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	EUR	6f D	Alw n2l	3rd/6 -3L	—	4.0-1	b L	Led early
8/16	GIL	6f D	TABASprin20k	4th/10 -3½L	—	15-1	b L	Steady move solid try
7/10	LS	1 1/16 D	TxArDrby G2	6th/9 -6½L	—	41-1	b L	No factor; 4wd

5Ekonia▲Ran 3rdA. Stanley · B. PotterStanley · Potter?15-1Fair 15-16%——?▲ Rider upgrade (15% vs 10%) cutting back to a sprint

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?

▲ Rider upgrade (15% vs 10%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Blake Gregory Potter 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Skidaddle Dash 8-1, R6: Pete Be Rowdy 15-1, R7: Shosweet 3-1

60D LAYOFF

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Returns from a 156-day break, the biggest in the field.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 10d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/29	LS	1m D	sAlw24500n3l	5th/7 -5½L	—	14-1	L	Off slw;mid mv;flattnd
3/14	HOU	6½f D	Alw n3l	5th/8 -3L	—	10-1	L	Prssd;no late kick
2/21	HOU	6½f D	sAlw14000n2l	Won/6	—	1.5-1	L	Pace; drew clear; best

6MasqueradesobiaRan 1stL. Huaman · T. JohnsonHuaman · Johnson?4-5Fair 6-545%——?1

Card model 45% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier ?

Jockey Luis A Huaman 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Thunder Johnson 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Detective Bernardo 9-2

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 126 days. Watch how its recent works look. Last out was 2nd, a head behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/28	LS	6f D	OC 30k n3x	2nd/6 by hd	—	4.6-1	b L	4w;bid1/4;2nd best
6/5	LS	7f D	OC 20k n3x	Won/7	—	19-1	b L	Repelled bids;clr late
5/1	LS	6f D	OC 20k n3x	2nd/6 -3½L	—	12-1	b L	Tk up st;adv;mv up2nd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Masqueradesobia, won.

1st6MasqueradesobiaWin$5.00Place$3.20Show$2.60Our #1

2nd3Wma Madjic SlippersWin—Place$3.40Show$2.80Our #3

3rd5EkoniaWin—Place—Show$2.80Our #5

4th2Like Moulin RougeOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EUR · RACE 10

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $30,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$26,000

Post

6:00 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#6 · 45%

Claiming $30,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Arabian

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Masqueradesobia (a tactical type, M/L 4-5). It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Uptown Trumpthess at 4-1. Use #3 Wma Madjic Slippers in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Masqueradesobia won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 6th, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 MASQUERADESOBIA	1st
#2	#1 UPTOWN TRUMPTHESS	6th
#3	#3 WMA MADJIC SLIPPERS	2nd
#4	#4 MAJD STORM	5th
#5	#5 EKONIA	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#6 MASQUERADESOBIA	our #1
2nd	#3 WMA MADJIC SLIPPERS	our #3
3rd	#5 EKONIA	our #5
4th	#2 LIKE MOULIN ROUGE	our #6
5th	#4 MAJD STORM	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 MASQUERADESOBIA (4-5) — our number agrees.
#6 MASQUERADESOBIA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (43.2% to their 46.0%).
#3 WMA MADJIC SLIPPERS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 20.7%).
#1 UPTOWN TRUMPTHESS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.6% to their 16.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 MAJD STORM (12-1) — our fair 7.4% is above the morning line's 6.4%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Uptown Trumpthess, #2 Like Moulin Rouge, #3 Wma Madjic Slippers.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Uptown Trumpthess2Like Moulin Rouge3Wma Madjic Slippers4Majd Storm5Ekonia6Masqueradesobia

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Like Moulin Rouge

Masqueradesobia

Uptown Trumpthess

Wma Madjic Slippers

Majd Storm

Ekonia

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 WIN; PLACE; SHOW

$2 EXACTA ($1 BOX / WHEEL)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.