EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$21,500

Post

8:15 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Model top pick

#5 · 25%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Carry On Jess (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 82 · 78 · 82. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Caracara Dreamin at 5-2. Use #3 Brown Recluse Tlc in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pace Vacuum: No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

1TOP PICK

5Carry On Jess

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-64 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer David Bustamante 30% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: One Sweet Bride 20-1, R2: Trash Talkn 8-1, R3: Camino Chrome 15-1, R4: Pilot Train B 5-2 +2 more · Trainer R3: Jrs Ya Majestic 20-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 204d back)

RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

M/L9-5

Model25%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last3rd · 26d

22ND

8Caracara Dreamin

Jockey Servando Ramirez 33% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%), #2 of 22 · Trainer Kenneth Weeks 30% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Paint My Seis 8-5 · Trainer R3: Paint My Seis 8-5, R6: The D Oh Double G 8-1

Last out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 76d ago

M/L5-2

Model21%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last2nd · 20d

33RD

3Brown Recluse Tlc

Jockey Cesar Segura 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Teddy L Jr Guy

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Raises its level, stakes last time and maiden special weight now. Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 86 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 22 (1F in :11.00), 1 work in 30d

M/L5-1

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last6th · 81d

44TH

6Gold Heart Mafia

Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-51 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Campos 28% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Bleu Goon 15-1, R2: Supertrucker 3-1, R7: Miss Foxy Eagle 20-1 · Trainer R3: Remember Me Favorite 10-1, R7: Miss Foxy Eagle 20-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 5/30 from post 6

Still looking for the first win after 6 starts. 0 for 6 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.40 on Sep 30 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 6 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 30 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 21d

55TH

1Jess A Sweet Warrior

Jockey Saul Ramirez Hernandez 38% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Dealus Wayne Cuevas 19% career

Also today · Jockey R6: The D Oh Double G 8-1

First career start, by Jess Different out of Cc Warrior Girl. First start, and Prime Power already has it ranked first here.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 11d ago

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

9Willow Dream

Jockey Jose Ariel Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-27 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Classy Eagle 3-1, R7: Biscuits N Jam 7-2 · Trainer R6: Apollitical Delight 5-1, R7: Biscuits N Jam 7-2

Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 15). Debut for this You Drive I Fly filly, whose dam is Lucy First Grip.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago

RECORD Jose Ariel Rodriguez from post 9 here: 9 wins, 24 top-3 in 80 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

4Miss Piloto Chrome

Jockey Humberto Vital 33% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Mardonio Jr Flores 33% career 2-for-23 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Oh My Fortunes 5-1, R7: Boogass 12-1

Humberto Vital takes over from Lucas Constantin in the saddle. Finished 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at EVD, beaten 2¾ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 68d back)

RECORD Humberto Vital from post 4 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 20 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 11d

2Farewell Brenda

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Erica McCulley 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Dark Asset 15-1, R2: Rm Kamila Patriot 7-2, R3: Legacy Favorite 6-1, R7: San Fast 10-1

4th last time, ½ length back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 21d

7Aint I Goin Rogue

Jockey B Ransom 26% career 9-for-59 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara 28% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: I C Visions 10-1, R4: My Favorite 8-5 · Trainer R1: One Fabulous Cruz 3-1, R4: My Favorite 8-5, R4: Imperial Fire 12-1

A step up in company: maiden claiming $5,000 before, maiden special weight today. Gets a new rider, B Ransom replacing Randy Jr Edison.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 55 days ago

RECORD B Ransom from post 7 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 28 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 21d

10Vals Ivory Streak

Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Donald Rubin 22% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Arrowhead Xo 20-1

Beaten 1¼ lengths for 8th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 29d ago)

M/L20-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 21d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 CARRY ON JESS (9-5) — our number agrees.
#5 CARRY ON JESS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.3% to their 27.3%).
#8 CARACARA DREAMIN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 21.8%).
#3 BROWN RECLUSE TLC — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 12.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jess A Sweet Warrior, #2 Farewell Brenda, #3 Brown Recluse Tlc.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Jess A Sweet Warrior2Farewell Brenda3Brown Recluse Tlc4Miss Piloto Chrome5Carry On Jess6Gold Heart Mafia7Aint I Goin Rogue8Caracara Dreamin9Willow Dream10Vals Ivory Streak

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Farewell Brenda

Brown Recluse Tlc

Miss Piloto Chrome

Carry On Jess

Gold Heart Mafia

Aint I Goin Rogue

Caracara Dreamin

Vals Ivory Streak

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