● Live race intelligence · code EVD

Evangeline Downs

Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Races
7
on the card
Feature
R5
State-Bred Maiden Special Weight · $22K
First post
6:35 PM
ET · race 1
Top model win %
31%
#9 Paint My Seis

● Track conditions today

Evangeline Downs — today's signals

Surface read

±0.53s STEADY

Surface holds steady day to day — final times read true off the page, so our speed figures need little adjustment here.

day-to-day swing · 96 race-days sampled

Weather

Unavailable

No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.

Carryover pool

None today

No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.

Do the model's percentages hold up?

Mostly

Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.

checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06

TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST

Best post #4 (12%) · Rail helps

Even by post — inside 12% / outside 8%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 23,526 starts.

avg 11%12%112%212%312%412%512%611%710%88%98%10

Where the model is most sure

Three highest model win %.

The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.

R3 · 350 Yards Dirt

#9 Paint My Seis

Ramirez Servando · Weeks Kenneth

Model win %
31%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
8-5

R4 · 350 Yards Dirt

#2 My Favorite

Ransom B · Solis-Guevara Ismael

Model win %
28%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
8-5

R7 · 250 Yards Dirt

#9 Jp Big Daddy Dash

Hernandez Rene · Lopez Fernando

Model win %
28%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
2-1

Top connections on the card

Trainers + jockeys to watch.

Trainer leaderboard

  1. Weeks Kenneth3 top picks
  2. Flores Salvador G1 top picks
  3. Castro Carlos Gabriel1 top picks
  4. Carlos Katie1 top picks
  5. Meche Robert1 top picks

Jockey leaderboard

  1. Ramirez Servando2 top picks
  2. Edison Randy Jr2 top picks
  3. Villarreal Jose Elias1 top picks
  4. Cabrera Rolando1 top picks
  5. Morales Adrian X1 top picks

Multi-race wagers

Today's sequences, leg by leg.

Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg, or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all. This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.

Pick 4Races 1–4
R1#7 Pk Silver StreakTop pick
R2#5 Rm Kamila Patriot · #4 JessadifferentdollyClose: top 2
R3#9 Paint My SeisTop pick
R4#2 My Favorite · #4 Allon Allon P3 · #5 Gator SeasonClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 3–7
R3#9 Paint My SeisTop pick
R4#2 My Favorite · #4 Allon Allon P3 · #5 Gator SeasonClose: top 3
R5#5 Carry On Jess · #8 Caracara Dreamin · #3 Brown Recluse TlcClose: top 3
R6#3 The D Oh Double GTop pick
R7#9 Jp Big Daddy DashTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 4–7
R4#2 My Favorite · #4 Allon Allon P3 · #5 Gator SeasonClose: top 3
R5#5 Carry On Jess · #8 Caracara Dreamin · #3 Brown Recluse TlcClose: top 3
R6#3 The D Oh Double GTop pick
R7#9 Jp Big Daddy DashTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.

Today's races

Race-by-race with archetype.

Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.

R01

300 Yards Dirt · Maiden Claiming $5,000

Purse $9,000 · 10 entered · Post 6:35 PM ET

PACE VACUUM

Model's top pick

#7 Pk Silver Streak

Villarreal Jose Elias / Flores Salvador G

M/L

4-1

Model 19% · favourite is #5

VIEW →
R02

350 Yards Dirt · Claiming $7,500

Purse $14,000 · 9 entered · Post 7:00 PM ET

PACE VACUUM

Model's top pick

#5 Rm Kamila Patriot

Morales Adrian X / Carlos Katie

M/L

7-2

Model 17% · favourite is #3

VIEW →
R03

350 Yards Dirt · Maiden Special Weight

Purse $14,000 · 10 entered · Post 7:25 PM ET

PACE VACUUM

Model's top pick

#9 Paint My Seis

Ramirez Servando / Weeks Kenneth

M/L

8-5

Model 31% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R04

350 Yards Dirt · Claiming $20,000

Purse $18,500 · 7 entered · Post 7:50 PM ET

PACE VACUUM

Model's top pick

#2 My Favorite

Ransom B / Solis-Guevara Ismael

M/L

8-5

Model 28% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R05

300 Yards Dirt · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Purse $21,500 · 10 entered · Post 8:15 PM ET

PACE VACUUM

Model's top pick

#5 Carry On Jess

Edison Randy Jr / Bustamante David

M/L

9-5

Model 25% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R06

330 Yards Dirt · Optional Claiming $20,000

Purse $14,000 · 8 entered · Post 8:40 PM ET

PACE VACUUM

Model's top pick

#3 The D Oh Double G

Hernandez Saul Ramirez / Weeks Kenneth

M/L

8-1

Model 14% · favourite is #4

VIEW →
R07

250 Yards Dirt · Maiden Special Weight

Purse $14,000 · 10 entered · Post 9:05 PM ET

PACE VACUUM

Model's top pick

#9 Jp Big Daddy Dash

Hernandez Rene / Lopez Fernando

M/L

2-1

Model 28% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.