EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$14,000

Post

9:05 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Model top pick

#9 · 28%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 250 Yards: 12.83

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 Jp Big Daddy Dash (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 85 · 87 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Aj Crown at 4-1. Use #3 Boogass in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pace Vacuum: No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

1TOP PICK

9Jp Big Daddy Dash

Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 2-for-57 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Fernando Lopez 26% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Quematieraz Bux 8-1, R3: A Coastal Cowboy 20-1, R6: Snowlady Train 5-2 · Trainer R3: A Coastal Cowboy 20-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :10.40 on Feb 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 9 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 26 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model28%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last2nd · 83d

22ND

7Aj Crown

Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Viviane Hill 24% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: One Fabulous Cruz 3-1, R4: Imperial Fire 12-1 · Trainer R3: Church At Six 5-1, R3: Legacy Favorite 6-1

Jky 0/15 from post 7

2nd of 9 at 1F on Sep 12, in :11.60. Finished 2nd last time in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 46d back)

RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia has never won from post 7 here (5 top-3 in 15 rides) · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last2nd · 20d

33RD

3Boogass

Jockey Humberto Vital 33% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Gregorio Davila 16% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Oh My Fortunes 5-1, R5: Miss Piloto Chrome 12-1 · Trainer R2: Oh My Fortunes 5-1

Humberto Vital takes over from Yaidel Rodriguez in the saddle. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 28d ago)

RECORD Humberto Vital from post 3 here: 8 wins, 17 top-3 in 27 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last10th · 13d

44TH

4Rvs Royal Eagle

Jockey J R Ramirez 33% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%), #3 of 22 · Trainer Barbara Alcantara 26% career 0-for-17 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Hesa John 316 15-1 · Trainer R1: Quematieraz Bux 8-1, R3: Red Winged Angel 20-1

Last out was 2nd, a neck behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at EVD. Maiden through 6 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 48d ago

RECORD J R Ramirez from post 4 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 22 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last2nd · 26d

55TH

2Mr Navigator

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-64 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jose Carrizales 26% career ★ 6-for-18 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 38

Also today · Jockey R1: One Sweet Bride 20-1, R2: Trash Talkn 8-1, R3: Camino Chrome 15-1, R4: Pilot Train B 5-2 +2 more

CLASS DROP

Raises its level, maiden claiming $10,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Figures are climbing: 53, 61, 71 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 26d ago

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 14d

1Aj Sign Of Beauty

Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-52 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jose U Lopez 26% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tk Eyema Dashing 12-1, R3: Church At Six 5-1, R6: Aj Lets Blaze 12-1 · Trainer R6: Rj Good Woman Blues 15-1

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten ¾ length for 6th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 119 days ago

RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 1 here: 4 wins, 22 top-3 in 72 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last6th · 20d

8San Fast

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Leonel Hernandez 31% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Dark Asset 15-1, R2: Rm Kamila Patriot 7-2, R3: Legacy Favorite 6-1, R5: Farewell Brenda 8-1

Changes barns, from Adalberto Miranda to Leonel Hernandez. 10th last time, 1¾ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 20d ago

M/L10-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last10th · 12d

6Biscuits N Jam

Jockey Jose Ariel Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-27 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Kenneth Roberts 24% career 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Classy Eagle 3-1, R5: Willow Dream 15-1 · Trainer R5: Willow Dream 15-1, R6: Apollitical Delight 5-1

180D+ LAYOFF

Returns from a 186-day break, the biggest in the field. A step up in company: stakes before, maiden special weight today.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 26d back

RECORD Jose Ariel Rodriguez from post 6 here: 11 wins, 52 top-3 in 128 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 186d

5Miss Foxy Eagle

Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-51 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Campos 28% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Jess Bleu Goon 15-1, R2: Supertrucker 3-1, R5: Gold Heart Mafia 10-1 · Trainer R3: Remember Me Favorite 10-1, R5: Gold Heart Mafia 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Sep 14, in :11.80. Worked 1F in :12.00 on Mar 13, 3rd of 36 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Sep 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 5 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 12d

10Arrowhead Xo

Jockey Lucas Constantin 23% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Paul Leal 26% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Vals Ivory Streak 20-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

0 for 4 at today's distance. Worked 1F in :12.00 on May 6, 2nd of 13 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Broke inward; bumped last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 26d

At a glance

Market favourite #9 JP BIG DADDY DASH (2-1) — our number agrees.
#9 JP BIG DADDY DASH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.5% to their 25.9%).
#7 AJ CROWN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 15.5%).
#6 BISCUITS N JAM — our #8 number, about right at the windows (15.1% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Aj Sign Of Beauty, #2 Mr Navigator, #3 Boogass.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Aj Sign Of Beauty2Mr Navigator3Boogass4Rvs Royal Eagle5Miss Foxy Eagle6Biscuits N Jam7Aj Crown8San Fast9Jp Big Daddy Dash10Arrowhead Xo

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Aj Sign Of Beauty

Mr Navigator

Boogass

Rvs Royal Eagle

Miss Foxy Eagle

Biscuits N Jam

Aj Crown

San Fast

Jp Big Daddy Dash

Arrowhead Xo

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