EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $5,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$9,000

Post

6:35 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Model top pick

#7 · 19%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 300 Yards: 15.08

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Pk Silver Streak (a tactical type, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 50 · 78. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #1 Jess Bleu Goon at 15-1. Use #9 Tk Eyema Dashing in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pace Vacuum: No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

1TOP PICK

7Pk Silver Streak

Jockey Jose Elias Villarreal 31% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Salvador G Flores 33% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Whiskey River Dash 15-1, R4: Hez Toasted 10-1 · Trainer R2: Whiskey River Dash 15-1, R4: Hez Toasted 10-1

CLASS DROP

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 79, with 73 next best. Changes barns, from Francisco Jr Campos to Salvador G Flores.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled; std'd early), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 186 days ago

M/L4-1

Model19%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last10th · 26d

22ND

1Jess Bleu Goon

Jockey Rolando Cabrera 33% career 4-for-51 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Carlos Gabriel Castro 26% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Supertrucker 3-1, R5: Gold Heart Mafia 10-1, R7: Miss Foxy Eagle 20-1 · Trainer this race: Runaway Tortuga 20-1

Jky 10/46 from post 1

Unraced so far; the pedigree is Fast Prize Jordan out of Jess Kalies Fortune. Tops the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD Rolando Cabrera from post 1 here: 10 wins, 22 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

33RD

9Tk Eyema Dashing

Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-52 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Larry D Keith 28% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Church At Six 5-1, R6: Aj Lets Blaze 12-1, R7: Aj Sign Of Beauty 15-1 · Trainer R6: Aj Lets Blaze 12-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Figures are climbing: 39, 49, 73 over its last three. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 203 days ago

RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 9 here: 1 win, 16 top-3 in 32 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last2nd · 69d

44TH

2One Fabulous Cruz

Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara 28% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Imperial Fire 12-1, R7: Aj Crown 4-1 · Trainer R4: My Favorite 8-5, R4: Imperial Fire 12-1, R5: Aint I Goin Rogue 20-1

Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 17). Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the One Fabulous Eagle and Lady Estelle Cartel breeding.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 2 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 21 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L3-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

55TH

6Quematieraz Bux

Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 2-for-57 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Barbara Alcantara 26% career 0-for-17 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: A Coastal Cowboy 20-1, R6: Snowlady Train 5-2, R7: Jp Big Daddy Dash 2-1 · Trainer R3: Red Winged Angel 20-1, R7: Rvs Royal Eagle 6-1

A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $5,000, and worth asking why. Beaten 2¾ lengths for 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 39d back

RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 6 here: 3 wins, 24 top-3 in 65 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 26d

3Dark Asset

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Gilberto Rosales 35% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Rm Kamila Patriot 7-2, R3: Legacy Favorite 6-1, R5: Farewell Brenda 8-1, R7: San Fast 10-1 · Trainer R2: Supertrucker 3-1, R6: Pilot Point Train 2-1

60D LAYOFF

Freshened 125 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. New trainer: Alex P Clark had it last time, Gilberto Rosales now.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 46d back)

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 125d

8Runaway Tortuga

Jockey Yaidel Rodriguez 34% career 3-for-28 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Carlos Gabriel Castro 26% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Jess Bleu Goon 15-1

Gets a new rider, Yaidel Rodriguez replacing Leonardo Palomo. 5th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 7.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 91d ago

RECORD Yaidel Rodriguez from post 8 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 37 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 18d

5One Sweet Jg Dynasty

Jockey Leonardo Palomo 8-for-48 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Manuel H Macias 17% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Sweet And Classic 20-1, R6: Rbd Lu Boor Ee Ka 20-1

60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST

Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $5,000 is an easier level on paper. Last out was 9th, 2¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at DED.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 0 works in 30d, last 34d ago

M/L5-2

Model17%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last9th · 75d

10One Sweet Bride

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-64 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Braulio Hernandez 31% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Trash Talkn 8-1, R3: Camino Chrome 15-1, R4: Pilot Train B 5-2, R5: Carry On Jess 9-5 +2 more

60D LAYOFF

Braulio Hernandez takes over the training from Lira Jesus Huitron. Worked 1F in :11.80 on Aug 13, 3rd of 12 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 76d ago

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 69d

4Sheza Jumper

Jockey Noe Castaneda 33% career ★ 9-for-42 on dirt this meet (21%), #1 of 22 · Trainer Juan Manual Vidal 15% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Rj Good Woman Blues 15-1

60D LAYOFFJky 12/37 from post 4

Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $5,000 today. Finished 8th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at DED, beaten 2¼ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

RECORD Noe Castaneda from post 4 here: 12 wins, 17 top-3 in 37 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 74d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 ONE SWEET JG DYNASTY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #8.
#5 ONE SWEET JG DYNASTY — our #8 number, about right at the windows (21.1% to their 22.2%).
#2 ONE FABULOUS CRUZ — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 19.4%).
#7 PK SILVER STREAK — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 15.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 JESS BLEU GOON (15-1) — our fair 5.8% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jess Bleu Goon, #2 One Fabulous Cruz, #3 Dark Asset.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Jess Bleu Goon2One Fabulous Cruz3Dark Asset4Sheza Jumper5One Sweet Jg Dynasty6Quematieraz Bux7Pk Silver Streak8Runaway Tortuga9Tk Eyema Dashing10One Sweet Bride

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Dark Asset

Sheza Jumper

One Sweet Jg Dynasty

Quematieraz Bux

Pk Silver Streak

Runaway Tortuga

Tk Eyema Dashing

One Sweet Bride

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