EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$18,500

Post

7:50 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Model top pick

#2 · 28%

Claiming $20,000, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 My Favorite (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 86 · 74 · 82. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Allon Allon P3 at 6-1. Use #5 Gator Season in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pace Vacuum: No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

1TOP PICK

2My Favorite

Jockey B Ransom 26% career 9-for-59 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara 28% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: I C Visions 10-1, R5: Aint I Goin Rogue 20-1 · Trainer R1: One Fabulous Cruz 3-1, this race: Imperial Fire 12-1, R5: Aint I Goin Rogue 20-1

WON LAST

Owns the highest recent figure here at 86. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at EVD at 2.6-1.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 44d ago

RECORD B Ransom from post 2 here: 4 wins, 14 top-3 in 39 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L8-5

Model28%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last1st · 26d

22ND

4Allon Allon P3

Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Preston Jourdan 35% career 3-for-17 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Red Winged Angel 20-1, R6: Apollitical Delight 5-1

Gets a new rider, Pedro Chavarria Espinosa replacing Rolando Cabrera. Finished 3rd in a 9-horse $20,000 claiming race at EVD, beaten a neck.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 50d ago

RECORD Pedro Chavarria Espinosa from post 4 here: 6 wins, 12 top-3 in 31 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last3rd · 26d

33RD

5Gator Season

Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 8-for-54 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Rene Saias Vidana 16% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Remember Me Favorite 10-1, R6: Lm Mr Scarface 4-1

60D LAYOFF

Runs for $18,500 today after a $50,000 race last time. Off 60 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 14d ago

M/L15-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 60d

44TH

1Hez Toasted

Jockey Jose Elias Villarreal 31% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Salvador G Flores 33% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Pk Silver Streak 4-1, R2: Whiskey River Dash 15-1 · Trainer R1: Pk Silver Streak 4-1, R2: Whiskey River Dash 15-1

CLASS DROP

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. 9th last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jan 16; 0 works in 30d

M/L10-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 26d

55TH

3Sheza Innocent Girl

Jockey Ubaldo Luna 34% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Martin Trejo 29% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Tdz Kings Ransom 5-2

3rd of 18 at 1F on Jan 17, in :12.00. Beaten a neck for 4th in a 9-horse $20,000 claiming race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 175d ago

RECORD Ubaldo Luna from post 3 here: 9 wins, 23 top-3 in 67 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 26d

7Pilot Train B

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-64 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Noe R Sanchez 34% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: One Sweet Bride 20-1, R2: Trash Talkn 8-1, R3: Camino Chrome 15-1, R5: Carry On Jess 9-5 +2 more

WON LAST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 86, with 85 next best. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 28d back

M/L5-2

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last1st · 18d

6Imperial Fire

Jockey Juan Francisco Jr Garcia 33% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara 28% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: One Fabulous Cruz 3-1, R7: Aj Crown 4-1 · Trainer R1: One Fabulous Cruz 3-1, this race: My Favorite 8-5, R5: Aint I Goin Rogue 20-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPWON LAST

95 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Moves up from maiden claiming $10,000 to $20,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 20d ago

RECORD Juan Francisco Jr Garcia from post 6 here: 6 wins, 13 top-3 in 25 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

RECORD Chestnuts win 16% here vs 14% for all horses (900 starts)

M/L12-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last1st · 95d

At a glance

Market favourite #2 MY FAVORITE (8-5) — our number agrees.
#2 MY FAVORITE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.8% to their 30.4%).
#7 PILOT TRAIN B — our #6 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.6%).
#3 SHEZA INNOCENT GIRL — our #5 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Hez Toasted, #2 My Favorite, #3 Sheza Innocent Girl.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Hez Toasted2My Favorite3Sheza Innocent Girl4Allon Allon P35Gator Season6Imperial Fire7Pilot Train B

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hez Toasted

My Favorite

Sheza Innocent Girl

Allon Allon P3

Gator Season

Imperial Fire

Pilot Train B

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6)

PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7)

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