EVANGELINE DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$14,000

Post

7:25 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Model top pick

#9 · 31%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 Paint My Seis (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 82 · 84 · 87. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Remember Me Favorite at 10-1. Use #10 Legacy Favorite in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pace Vacuum: No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

1TOP PICK

9Paint My Seis

Jockey Servando Ramirez 33% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%), #2 of 22 · Trainer Kenneth Weeks 30% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Caracara Dreamin 5-2 · Trainer R5: Caracara Dreamin 5-2, R6: The D Oh Double G 8-1

60D LAYOFF

Moves up from maiden claiming $20,000 to maiden special weight. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L8-5

Model31%

Fav?Yes

StyleNA

Last2nd · 62d

22ND

4Remember Me Favorite

Jockey Eddi Emanuel Martinez 33% career 8-for-54 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Campos 28% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Gator Season 15-1, R6: Lm Mr Scarface 4-1 · Trainer R5: Gold Heart Mafia 10-1, R7: Miss Foxy Eagle 20-1

Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden special weight today. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 252d ago

M/L10-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 34d

33RD

10Legacy Favorite

Jockey Adrian X Morales 32% career 6-for-38 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Viviane Hill 24% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Dark Asset 15-1, R2: Rm Kamila Patriot 7-2, R5: Farewell Brenda 8-1, R7: San Fast 10-1 · Trainer this race: Church At Six 5-1, R7: Aj Crown 4-1

60D LAYOFF

Owns the highest recent figure here at 98. Back after 138 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago

M/L6-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 138d

44TH

7Hesa John 316

Jockey J R Ramirez 33% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%), #3 of 22 · Trainer Trevor Soileau 22% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Rvs Royal Eagle 6-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped; good try last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back

M/L15-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last3rd · 74d

55TH

2Camino Chrome

Jockey Randy Jr Edison 20% career 11-for-64 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez 15% career ★ 11-for-25 on dirt this meet (44%), #1 of 38

Also today · Jockey R1: One Sweet Bride 20-1, R2: Trash Talkn 8-1, R4: Pilot Train B 5-2, R5: Carry On Jess 9-5 +2 more

First career start, by El Camino Cl out of N Ittowinit. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Sep 26).

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 32d ago

M/L15-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

6Classy Eagle

Jockey Jose Ariel Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-27 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jorge G Lopez 26% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Willow Dream 15-1, R7: Biscuits N Jam 7-2

Has moved up each time out, 73 to 78 to 91. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 76d back)

RECORD Jose Ariel Rodriguez from post 6 here: 11 wins, 52 top-3 in 128 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L3-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last3rd · 12d

5Jrs Ya Majestic

Jockey Jalen Blalock 14% career · Trainer David Bustamante 30% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Trainer R5: Carry On Jess 9-5

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

Returns from a 102-day break. Last out was 8th, 7¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DED.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped; no threat last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 102d

1Church At Six

Jockey Leonardo Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-52 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Viviane Hill 24% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tk Eyema Dashing 12-1, R6: Aj Lets Blaze 12-1, R7: Aj Sign Of Beauty 15-1 · Trainer this race: Legacy Favorite 6-1, R7: Aj Crown 4-1

180D+ LAYOFF

186 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 27d ago

RECORD Leonardo Rodriguez from post 1 here: 4 wins, 22 top-3 in 72 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last3rd · 186d

8Red Winged Angel

Jockey Pedro Chavarria Espinosa 25% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Barbara Alcantara 26% career 0-for-17 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Allon Allon P3 6-1, R6: Apollitical Delight 5-1 · Trainer R1: Quematieraz Bux 8-1, R7: Rvs Royal Eagle 6-1

Pedro Chavarria Espinosa takes over from Rene Hernandez in the saddle. Beaten 1¼ lengths for 8th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at EVD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 48d back)

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 12d

3A Coastal Cowboy

Jockey Rene Hernandez 38% career 2-for-57 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Fernando Lopez 26% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Quematieraz Bux 8-1, R6: Snowlady Train 5-2, R7: Jp Big Daddy Dash 2-1 · Trainer R7: Jp Big Daddy Dash 2-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Finished 8th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at EVD, beaten 1¼ lengths. Worked 1F in :12.00 on Jun 20, 2nd of 10 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Checked midway. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 26d back

RECORD Rene Hernandez from post 3 here: 7 wins, 19 top-3 in 63 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last8th · 20d

At a glance

Market favourite #9 PAINT MY SEIS (8-5) — our number agrees.
#9 PAINT MY SEIS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.6% to their 29.5%).
#6 CLASSY EAGLE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 19.2%).
#1 CHURCH AT SIX — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.7% to their 12.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 HESA JOHN 316 (15-1) — our fair 5.6% is above the morning line's 4.8%; supported by: last out: "Bumped; good try" — trouble the figure under-credits

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Church At Six, #2 Camino Chrome, #3 A Coastal Cowboy.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Church At Six2Camino Chrome3A Coastal Cowboy4Remember Me Favorite5Jrs Ya Majestic6Classy Eagle7Hesa John 3168Red Winged Angel9Paint My Seis10Legacy Favorite

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Church At Six

A Coastal Cowboy

Remember Me Favorite

Jrs Ya Majestic

Classy Eagle

Hesa John 316

Red Winged Angel

Paint My Seis

Legacy Favorite

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

PICK 5 (RACES 3-4-5-6-7-)

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