R2 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $10,000

12:40 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $23,000 · 8 runners12:40 PM · 1m Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $23K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Eton▼J. Rios · S. BudhooRios · BudhooB73 73 52▲+6↕10-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +673 73 52 ↕B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–75 · Last 3 figs 73 73 52

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jesus M Rios 28% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Steve Budhoo 20% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Magic Mini 15-1, R6: Touch Of Honor 5-1

8/16 board here

Class relief: optional claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 58d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Jesus M Rios from post 1 here: 10 wins, 42 top-3 in 99 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 20k	5th/6 -3½L	73	22-1	b L	Trailed; no rally
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k	6th/9 -5½L	73	32-1	b L	Passed tiring rivals;
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k	9th/9 -16L	52	8.1-1	L	Inside; outrun

2SwashbuckleJ. Ocasio · J. NegreteOcasio · NegreteB78 74 52▲+7↕@trip 865-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +778 74 52 ↕@trip 86B3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 74 52
Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Javier Negrete 19% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, R8: Tape Runner 8-1, R10: Come On Teesha 5-1 · Trainer R3: Star Of The Gun 8-1
CLASS DROP
Has moved up each time out, 52 to 74 to 78. Beaten ½ length for 4th in a 6-horse $12,500 claiming race at GP.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 48d ago
RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 12 starts here
RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 2 here: 9 wins, 34 top-3 in 76 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 GP 1m D Clm 12k 4th/6 -½L 78 18-1 L Stalked;evenly
6/7 GP 7f D Clm 30k b 5th/6 -4L 74 23-1 L Tght;off slw;used;fade
4/30 GP 1m D OC 25k n1x 5th/5 -17L 52 9.9-1 L Inside turn;no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1m D	Clm 12k	4th/6 -½L	78	18-1	L	Stalked;evenly
6/7	GP	7f D	Clm 30k b	5th/6 -4L	74	23-1	L	Tght;off slw;used;fade
4/30	GP	1m D	OC 25k n1x	5th/5 -17L	52	9.9-1	L	Inside turn;no factor

3SeaverS. Leon · A. SanchezLeon · SanchezA81 77 76▲+5≡9-2Fair 5-116%▲ Up +581 77 76 ≡A2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 74–81 · Last 3 figs 81 77 76

Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Amador Merei Sanchez 34% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Causeshzprecocious 8-1, R4: Mischief Holiday 15-1, R5: Love Hate 15-1 · Trainer R7: Captain Eddie 10-1

Jky 13/80 from post 3

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Drops from $12,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 88d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Sonny Leon from post 3 here: 13 wins, 33 top-3 in 80 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	7½f T	Clm 12k n1y	2nd/9 -3½L	81	8.0-1	b L	Outside;3p;late gain
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n1y	3rd/8 -3¾L	77	13-1	b L	Belated bid;good kick
9/4	GP	5f D	Clm 10k b	4th/8 -9½L	76	5.2-1	b L	Off slow;came on late

4King of HollywoodL. Reyes · S. HernandezReyes · HernandezA63 78 77▼▼-11@trip 815-2Fair 4-119%▼▼ Big drop -1163 78 77@trip 81A

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 78 77

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Sandino R Hernandez 31% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Vino 10-1, R3: Star Of The Gun 8-1, R4: Tulio 2-1, R5: Santal 10-1 +5 more

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Sandino R Hernandez takes over the training from Blake Kelly. Last out was 5th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse $12,500 claiming race at DEL.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 23; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 4 here: 43 wins, 143 top-3 in 329 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	DEL	1m D	Clm 12k bc	5th/5 -8L	63	4.5-1	L	Track;5p2nd;faded
9/3	DEL	1m D	Clm 10k bc	2nd/10 -1½L	78	1.9-1	L	Chased; couldn't gain
7/12	ELP	7f D	Clm 25k	5th/8 -4¾L	77	6.5-1	L	Ins pair;wknd btw 3/16

5Zozan★J. Santos · R. YanezSantos · YanezA79 58 89►↕@trip 899-5Fair 3-125%► Steady79 58 89 ↕@trip 89A★ Best at the trip 891
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 58 89
★ Best at the trip 89
Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Reynaldo Yanez 27% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Subtle Sir 7-2, R5: Valiant Winter 10-1
60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST10/13 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 86 for the next best. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Drifted out; bump foe), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Jul 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD 5 wins, 10 on the board from 13 starts here
RECORD Jonathan Santos has never won from post 5 here (4 top-3 in 15 rides) · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/17 GP 1m D Clm 10k b Won/5 79 0.5-1 b L Drifted out; bump foe
8/8 GP 1m T Clm 17k b 9th/9 -13L 58 20-1 b L 3-4w;no factor
7/20 GP 1m D Clm 6k 2nd/6 89 2.3-1 b L Dug in gamely; yielded

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/17	GP	1m D	Clm 10k b	Won/5	79	0.5-1	b L	Drifted out; bump foe
8/8	GP	1m T	Clm 17k b	9th/9 -13L	58	20-1	b L	3-4w;no factor
7/20	GP	1m D	Clm 6k	2nd/6	89	2.3-1	b L	Dug in gamely; yielded

6Never Say NeverLSR. Rojas · F. SantillanaRojas · SantillanaC78 71 61▲▲+9@trip 6115-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +978 71 61@trip 61CLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 71 61

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Renzo Rojas 30% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Frank Santillana 18% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Power Royal 20-1 · Trainer R4: Power Royal 20-1

Jky 4/44 from post 6

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Figures are climbing: 61, 71, 78 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 27d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Renzo Rojas from post 6 here: 4 wins, 14 top-3 in 44 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	7½f T	Clm 12k n1y	4th/9 -5¾L	78	50-1	b L	Inside;2-3p;improved
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k n1y	8th/8 -6¼L	71	40-1	b L	Loom trn; gave way;
8/17	GP	1m D	Clm 10k b	4th/5 -5L	61	7.7-1	b L	Vied inside; faded

7Noble Prince▼J. Morelos · R. CoyMorelos · CoyB68 77 73▼-6≡@trip 7710-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -668 77 73 ≡@trip 77B▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 77 73

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-47 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Ronald Coy 29% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Olympic Kitty 20-1, R4: Don't Tell Bert 12-1, R5: Araucano 6-1, R6: Chica Feliz 50-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Santal 10-1

60D LAYOFF7/11 board here

Off 68 days since the last start. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 5 at the first call.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 11 (4F in :47.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 7 here: 24 wins, 88 top-3 in 238 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	GP	1m D	Clm 10k b	5th/5 -6½L	68	1.1-1	L	Settled;asked;nothing
8/10	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/6 by 3½	77	2.8-1	L	Chased; late rally
7/18	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/11 -8½L	73	6.3-1	L	Tipped 3w 1/4 mildly

8Fredericksburg▼▼C. Gil · B. CamposGil · CamposC64 62 57▲+6≡20-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +664 62 57 ≡C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 82▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 56–64 · Last 3 figs 64 62 57

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 82▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Bernardo Campos 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

CLASS UP

Best recent figure is 66, well under the 82 par for this level. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Cipriano Gil from post 8 here: 6 wins, 20 top-3 in 51 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k b	6th/8 -9½L	64	48-1	b L	Chased 3wd; faded
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k b	6th/8 -8L	62	63-1	b L	Pass weaker
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 10k b	7th/8 -9L	57	72-1	b L	Through after half;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$23,000

Post

12:40 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 25%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.13

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Zozan (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 79 · 58 · 89. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 Seaver at 9-2. Use #2 Swashbuckle in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 ZOZAN (9-5) — our number agrees.
#5 ZOZAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.1% to their 27.8%).
#4 KING OF HOLLYWOOD — our #4 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.3%).
#3 SEAVER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Never Say Never; pressure from #4 King Of Hollywood, #3 Seaver; the shape helps #1 Eton, #2 Swashbuckle, #3 Seaver; and works against #6 Never Say Never, #8 Fredericksburg.

Lead

6Never Say Never75

Press

4King Of Hollywood793Seaver782Swashbuckle775Zozan777Noble Prince77

Stalk

1Eton74

none

No style yet

8Fredericksburg77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

King Of Hollywood

Seaver

Swashbuckle

Zozan

Noble Prince

Never Say Never

Eton

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Noble Prince

Zozan

King Of Hollywood

Swashbuckle

Fredericksburg

Eton

Seaver

Never Say Never

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1 BET 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)

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