R8 Gulfstream Park · Optional Claiming $35,000

4:25 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $33,500 · 9 runners4:25 PM · 1m Turf · 9 runners

Upcoming $34K · Optional Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Elenique (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 83 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1More Applause▲M. Vasquez · J. CataneseVasquez · CataneseB81 63 81▲▲+9@trip 8110-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best81 63 81@trip 81B▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 63 81
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81
Jockey Miguel Angel Vasquez 33% career ★ 10-for-34 on turf this meet (29%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Joseph C Ii Catanese 0-for-6 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Grant Me Peace 5-2, R5: Sofocles 9-5, R6: Kissed By A Rose 20-1, R7: Final Payment 6-1 +2 more
CLASS DROP
Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 4th last time in a 7-horse optional claiming race at GP.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 8 starts here
RECORD Miguel Angel Vasquez from post 1 here: 57 wins, 152 top-3 in 364 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 4th/7 81 13-1 L Set press pace; weaken
8/2 GP 1 1/16 T OC 50k 6th/6 -½L 63 6.6-1 L Led to 3/16;faded lane
7/4 GP 1m T OC 50k 4th/7 81 28-1 L Pace; weakened 1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 35k	4th/7	81	13-1	L	Set press pace; weaken
8/2	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 50k	6th/6 -½L	63	6.6-1	L	Led to 3/16;faded lane
7/4	GP	1m T	OC 50k	4th/7	81	28-1	L	Pace; weakened 1/8

2Tape RunnerJ. Ocasio · V. Barboza Jr.Ocasio · Barboza Jr.B73 78 80▼▼-88-1Fair 10-18%▼▼ Big drop -873 78 80B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 73 78 80

Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 3-for-16 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Swashbuckle 5-1, R6: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, R10: Come On Teesha 5-1 · Trainer R5: Carcone 2-1, R6: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, this race: New Life 3-1, R10: Super Sienna 12-1

CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST5/10 board here

Moves up from $17,500 claiming to optional claiming. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Circled 5wd; in time last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 2 here: 9 wins, 34 top-3 in 76 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k b	Won/7 by 2	73	1.6-1	L	Circled 5wd; in time
7/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	5th/9 -9½L	78	7.2-1	L	Ins uppr;shift 4p;even
6/13	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 25k b	4th/7 -3½L	80	5.6-1	L	Step slow;coming late

3Tell Me Some LiesD. Herrera · J. OrsenoHerrera · OrsenoA68 79 85▼▼-14@trip 812-1Fair 3-124%▼▼ Big drop -1468 79 85@trip 81A2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 79 85

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 6-for-51 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Joseph F Orseno 28% career 2-for-26 on turf this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Gustavia 8-1, R3: Daunting 9-5, R4: Our Willow 4-1, R5: El Muheet 4-1 +4 more · Trainer R5: El Muheet 4-1, R5: Valiant Winter 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Figures have slipped: 85, 79, 68 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 90d back)

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 3 here: 9 wins, 40 top-3 in 72 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	6th/8 -6½L	68	2.8-1	b L	No response; evenly
8/30	CNL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	3rd/7 -2L	79	3.5-1	b L	3-4w 2nd; missed 2nd
8/7	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	Won/8	85	4.0-1	b L	Stalk;3w bid;kickd clr

4Nashville SlewLSE. Gonzalez · R. LaurinGonzalez · LaurinC71 77 78▼-7≡@trip 7820-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -771 77 78 ≡@trip 78CLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 71–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 77 78

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-25 on turf this meet (32%), #1 of 18 · Trainer Roger Laurin 22% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Mish 1-1, R9: Zeus's Echo 5-1, R10: Day To Day 2-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 78 to 77 to 71. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Edwin Gonzalez from post 4 here: 50 wins, 127 top-3 in 251 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	5th/8 -5½L	71	16-1	b L	Track;bid; flattened
9/5	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 35k	6th/7 -2L	77	15-1	b L	Pressed pace; gv way
4/19	TAM	1m T	Clm 25k n3x	2nd/6 by nk	78	11-1	b L	Trk ins; bid btw; game

5Lady River Lily▲W. Henry · A. RodriguezHenry · RodriguezB66 76 76▼-7@trip 769-2Fair 8-111%▼ Down -766 76 76@trip 76B▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 76 76

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Wesley Henry 18% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Angel M Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet

★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/20 from post 5

Changes barns, from Douglas J Seyler to Angel M Rodriguez. Class relief: allowance last time, optional claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 25 (5F in 1:02.00), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Wesley Henry has never won from post 5 here (1 top-3 in 20 rides) · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	6th/6 -5½L	66	48-1	L	Unsettled ins; tired
8/8	SAR	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	7th/8 -4¾L	76	44-1	L	Coaxed ins; weakened
7/3	SAR	1 1/16 T	OC 45k	7th/8 -5L	76	40-1	L	4w upper; weakened

6Elenique★J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeA75 80 83▼-7≡@trip 838-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -775 80 83 ≡@trip 83A★ Best at the trip 83

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 80 83

★ Best at the trip 83

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career ★ 4-for-18 on turf this meet (22%) · Trainer Patrick L Biancone 28% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Irish Tale 10-1, R10: Cryingintherain 10-1 · Trainer R10: Cryingintherain 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK7/11 board here

Last out was 7th, 5 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at GP. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 33 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 6 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 17 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	7th/7 -5L	75	5.9-1	b L	Trailed; no factor;
8/29	GP	1 1/16 D	BearsDenB100k	4th/6 -5¾L	80	5.9-1	b	Stalk 4w;loom;no kick
8/9	GP	1m T	fsMdSpWt	Won/8 by 2	83	0.5-1	b L	Asked 3w;reponded;up

7New LifeL. Reyes · V. Barboza Jr.Reyes · Barboza Jr.A78 84 89▼-3@trip 733-1Fair 4-121%▼ Down -378 84 89@trip 73A1

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 84 89

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-50 on turf this meet (26%), #3 of 18 · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vino 10-1, R2: King Of Hollywood 5-2, R3: Star Of The Gun 8-1, R4: Tulio 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R5: Carcone 2-1, R6: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, this race: Tape Runner 8-1, R10: Super Sienna 12-1

7/9 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 85 for the next best. Figures have slipped: 89, 84, 78 over its last three.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 7 here: 44 wins, 132 top-3 in 299 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	2nd/8 -5L	78	1.2-1	b L	Closed well;no match
9/5	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 35k	2nd/7 -3L	84	1.7-1	b L	Boxed in;belatedly
8/2	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k	Won/7 by ½	89	1.9-1	b L	Jostled st;4w;clear

8Starship ElationJ. Morelos · K. MongeonMorelos · MongeonC73 78 79▼-3≡@trip 7920-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -373 78 79 ≡@trip 79C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 78 79
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-25 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Kathy P Mongeon 12% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Olympic Kitty 20-1, R2: Noble Prince 10-1, R4: Don't Tell Bert 12-1, R5: Araucano 6-1 +3 more
0 for 6 at today's distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d ago
RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 8 here: 15 wins, 45 top-3 in 158 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 3rd/8 -8½L 73 26-1 L Belated interest
9/5 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 5th/7 -5L 78 8.2-1 L Passed weaker
8/8 GP 1m T OC 35k 3rd/8 -8L 79 27-1 L 3-4w;no match top 2

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 35k	3rd/8 -8½L	73	26-1	L	Belated interest
9/5	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 35k	5th/7 -5L	78	8.2-1	L	Passed weaker
8/8	GP	1m T	OC 35k	3rd/8 -8L	79	27-1	L	3-4w;no match top 2

9Del Mar SunriseM. Meneses · N. TomlinsonMeneses · TomlinsonC67 72 70▼-6@trip 728-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -667 72 70@trip 72C3

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 72 70

Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 3-for-23 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Nicholas J Tomlinson 27% career 1-for-12 on turf this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Jenlovestoshop 4-1, R6: Hammy 20-1 · Trainer R6: Boots 15-1

4/8 board here

Was running in optional claiming; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 9 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 31 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 50k	6th/6 -9L	67	7.5-1	L	No threat;
8/22	GP	1m T	MssGracieB100k	6th/7 -6½L	72	29-1		Steadied 7/8; 4wd bid
8/2	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 50k	3rd/6 -1¾L	70	7.6-1	L	Stdy 1/4;angl out;bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $35,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$33,500

Post

4:25 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 21%

Claiming $35,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 New Life (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 78 · 84 · 89. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Tell Me Some Lies at 2-1. Use #9 Del Mar Sunrise in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 TELL ME SOME LIES (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#3 TELL ME SOME LIES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.3% to their 25.9%).
#7 NEW LIFE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 19.5%).
#5 LADY RIVER LILY — our #8 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 NASHVILLE SLEW (20-1) — our fair 4.3% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Lady River Lily; pressure from #1 More Applause, #4 Nashville Slew; the shape helps #1 More Applause, #3 Tell Me Some Lies, #4 Nashville Slew; and works against #5 Lady River Lily.

Lead

5Lady River Lily81

Press

1More Applause874Nashville Slew877New Life79

Stalk

3Tell Me Some Lies859Del Mar Sunrise746Elenique70

8Starship Elation722Tape Runner63

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

More Applause

Nashville Slew

Tell Me Some Lies

Lady River Lily

New Life

Del Mar Sunrise

Elenique

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tape Runner

Starship Elation

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$3 PLAYERS LATE PICK 3 (RACES 8; 9; 10) / $1 SUNSET SIX

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.