R3 Gulfstream Park · Maiden Claiming $35,000

1:15 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $31,000 · 7 runners1:15 PM · 1m Turf · 7 runners

Upcoming $31K · Maiden Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1BarjoujM. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.A69 752-1Fair 3-124%—69 75A2
Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 69 75
Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career 2-for-15 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 3-for-16 on turf this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Boots 15-1, R9: Al Loud 2-1, R10: Pure Eloquence 5-2 · Trainer R6: Life's Mystery 9-2, R7: Mish 1-1, R9: Zeus's Echo 5-1, R9: Al Loud 2-1 +3 more
Jky 23/95 from post 1
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Runs for $31,000 today after a $50,000 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d back
RECORD Micah J Husbands from post 1 here: 23 wins, 49 top-3 in 95 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 GP 7f D Moc50000 3rd/5 -5L 69 1.2-1 L Stalk;bid;flattened
8/3 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 4th/9 -2L 75 17-1 L 4w trip; led; outkick
2E Z Shopping▼LSC. Martinez · L. DeMartinez · DeB72 61 53▲▲+1515-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best72 61 53B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 61 53
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Carlos Martinez 33% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer La Cruz Fernando De 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R7: He Be Hoppin 20-1
Changes barns, from Joseph F Orseno to La Cruz Fernando De. A step up in company: maiden claiming $12,500 before, maiden claiming $35,000 today.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Broke in; green; up 2nd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 13d ago
RECORD Carlos Martinez from post 2 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 27 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 GP 6½f D MCL 12kc 2nd/6 -4L 72 3.2-1 L Broke in;green;up 2nd
8/22 GP 5f T MSW 5th/5 -8½L 61 21-1 L Void speed; no factor
7/31 CNL 6f T MSW 8th/8 -9L 53 11-1 b L Off slow;4-5p turn;wkn

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	GP	7f D	Moc50000	3rd/5 -5L	69	1.2-1	L	Stalk;bid;flattened
8/3	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	4th/9 -2L	75	17-1	L	4w trip; led; outkick

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	GP	6½f D	MCL 12kc	2nd/6 -4L	72	3.2-1	L	Broke in;green;up 2nd
8/22	GP	5f T	MSW	5th/5 -8½L	61	21-1	L	Void speed; no factor
7/31	CNL	6f T	MSW	8th/8 -9L	53	11-1	b L	Off slow;4-5p turn;wkn

3Captain Karter▼▲R. Hughes · R. CrichtonHughes · CrichtonB68 71 63►9-2Fair 6-114%► Steady68 71 63B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 68 71 63

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Rasheed Hughes 34% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Life's Mystery 9-2, R9: Junction Road 8-1, R10: Little Georgie 20-1 · Trainer this race: Charcoal Blue 6-1, R9: All To Win 5-2, R9: Junction Road 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 79 par. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 13; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	6th/8 -1L	68	28-1	L	Set press pace;weaken
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	6th/7 -5L	71	18-1	L	Stalk;urg 3/8ths;tired
8/22	GP	6½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/7 -6½L	63	12-1	L	Urged along; no rally

4On the Rox▼J. Ferrer · L. HardestyFerrer · HardestyB66 67 50▲▲+11↕8-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +1166 67 50 ↕B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–67 · Last 3 figs 66 67 50
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey J C Ferrer 36% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet · Trainer Leslielyn N Hardesty 20% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Beaten 10 lengths for 2nd in a 7-horse race at DEL. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 20 days ago
RECORD J C Ferrer from post 4 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 31 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/17 DEL 1 1/16 D Moc40000 2nd/7 -10L 66 11-1 b L Outside trip; no match
8/14 DEL -8f T Moc40000 4th/8 67 82-1 b L Rail;dueled; faded
6/24 DEL 6f D MSW 5th/5 -8L 50 13-1 b Outpaced; no threat
5Charcoal BlueA. Thomas · R. CrichtonThomas · Crichton?6-1Fair 10-19%—Debut?
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Anthony Thomas 27% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R9: All To Win 5-2 · Trainer this race: Captain Karter 9-2, R9: All To Win 5-2, R9: Junction Road 8-1
First career start, by Gunnevera out of Top Notch Blue. Debut for a trainer who is 17% with first-timers, over 59 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.20 on Oct 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Anthony Thomas from post 5 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 43 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Gunnevera out of Top Notch Blue (Imperialism)
Trainer R. Crichton: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 47% in the money (59 starts)
Jockey A. Thomas in turf: 2 wins from 17 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 GP 5f 1:00.40 breezing 3/6
10/11 GP 5f 1:00.20 breezing 1/5 ● bullet
10/1 GP 4f :47.60 breezing 4/14
9/24 GP 4f :52.40 breezing 12/12 from gate
9/7 GP 3f :35.80 breezing 10/28
6DauntingD. Herrera · T. PletcherHerrera · PletcherA72 79@trip 799-5Fair 5-227%—72 79@trip 79A1
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 79
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 6-for-51 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Gustavia 8-1, R4: Our Willow 4-1, R5: El Muheet 4-1, R6: Sucker For Looks 5-2 +4 more
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Returns from a 98-day break, the biggest in the field. Back to a mile off a 1 1/2 miles race.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 6 here: 12 wins, 37 top-3 in 68 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/24 SAR 1½m T MSW 9th/9 -13L 72 6.8-1 L 2p turns;no response
6/5 SAR 1m T MSW 9th/12 -4¼L 79 13-1 L 7w upper; no response

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	DEL	1 1/16 D	Moc40000	2nd/7 -10L	66	11-1	b L	Outside trip; no match
8/14	DEL	-8f T	Moc40000	4th/8	67	82-1	b L	Rail;dueled; faded
6/24	DEL	6f D	MSW	5th/5 -8L	50	13-1	b	Outpaced; no threat

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	GP	5f	1:00.40	breezing	3/6
10/11	GP	5f	1:00.20	breezing	1/5	● bullet
10/1	GP	4f	:47.60	breezing	4/14
9/24	GP	4f	:52.40	breezing	12/12	from gate
9/7	GP	3f	:35.80	breezing	10/28

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/24	SAR	1½m T	MSW	9th/9 -13L	72	6.8-1	L	2p turns;no response
6/5	SAR	1m T	MSW	9th/12 -4¼L	79	13-1	L	7w upper; no response

7Star of the Gun▼L. Reyes · J. NegreteReyes · NegreteA73 73 71►≡@trip 728-1Fair 8-111%► Steady73 73 71 ≡@trip 72A▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 793

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–73 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 73 71

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-50 on turf this meet (26%), #3 of 18 · Trainer Javier Negrete 19% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Vino 10-1, R2: King Of Hollywood 5-2, R4: Tulio 2-1, R5: Santal 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Swashbuckle 5-1

6/12 board here

Still looking for the first win after 14 starts. Last out was 3rd, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at GP.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 25d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 6 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 7 here: 44 wins, 132 top-3 in 299 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 25k	3rd/6 -1½L	73	2.6-1	b L	Bid inside; not enough
8/23	GP	1 1/16 T	MCL 25k	2nd/7 -½L	73	7.6-1	b L	Pace; headed; held 2nd
7/3	GP	1m T	MCL 35k	6th/9 -8½L	71	12-1	b L	Off slw;4-w 1/4;no bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $35,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$31,000

Post

1:15 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 27%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Daunting (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 72 · 79. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #1 Barjouj at 2-1. Use #7 Star Of The Gun in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 DAUNTING (9-5) — our number agrees.
#6 DAUNTING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 27.5%).
#1 BARJOUJ — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.1% to their 25.6%).
#3 CAPTAIN KARTER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 14.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 E Z SHOPPING (15-1) — our fair 5.6% is above the morning line's 4.8%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Captain Karter; pressure from #4 On The Rox, #1 Barjouj; the shape helps #2 E Z Shopping; and works against #1 Barjouj, #3 Captain Karter, #4 On The Rox.

Lead

3Captain Karter894On The Rox851Barjouj83

Press

7Star Of The Gun79

Stalk

none

2E Z Shopping81

No style yet

6Daunting555Charcoal Blue

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Captain Karter

On The Rox

Barjouj

Star Of The Gun

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

E Z Shopping

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Bet types

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$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

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