R1 Gulfstream Park · Maiden Claiming $25,000

12:05 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $33,500 · 10 runners12:05 PM · 1m Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $34K · Maiden Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Grant Me PeaceM. Vasquez · N. PalmerVasquez · PalmerA66 71 68►≡5-2Fair 7-223%► Steady66 71 68 ≡A1

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–71 · Last 3 figs 66 71 68

Jockey Miguel Angel Vasquez 33% career ★ 10-for-34 on turf this meet (29%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Nicholas Palmer 23% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Sofocles 9-5, R6: Kissed By A Rose 20-1, R7: Final Payment 6-1, R8: More Applause 10-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Subtle Sir 7-2, R6: Liberty Rings 8-1

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Runs for $33,500 today after a $45,000 race last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 6d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Miguel Angel Vasquez from post 1 here: 57 wins, 152 top-3 in 364 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	4th/8 -4L	66	5.7-1	b	4-3w; bid; weakened
9/5	GP	7½f T	Moc50000	4th/7 -6½L	71	7.7-1	b	Mild bid 7 wide;
8/16	GP	7½f T	MSW	3rd/7 -4L	68	3.8-1	b	Inside trip; stayed on

2GustaviaD. Herrera · A. SanoHerrera · SanoA57 60 73▼-58-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -557 60 73A2

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 57 60 73

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 6-for-51 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-15 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Daunting 9-5, R4: Our Willow 4-1, R5: El Muheet 4-1, R6: Sucker For Looks 5-2 +4 more · Trainer this race: Magic Mini 15-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKJky 20/69 from post 2

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 73, with 72 next best. Finished 3rd in a 5-horse maiden claiming $35,000 race at GP, beaten 1 length.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 6)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Broke in; bid; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 11 (5F in 1:01.60), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 33 top-3 in 69 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 35k	3rd/5 -1L	57	1.7-1	b	Broke in;bid;faltered
9/25	GP	5½f D	Moc50000	6th/10 -8L	60	11-1	b	5p turn;7p lane;no bid
8/27	CNL	6f D	Moc50000	3rd/8 -6L	73	5.7-1	b	3w;6w1/4;need more

3VinoL. Reyes · C. DavidReyes · David?10-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-50 on turf this meet (26%), #3 of 18 · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career ★ 5-for-16 on turf this meet (31%), #2 of 16
Also today · Jockey R2: King Of Hollywood 5-2, R3: Star Of The Gun 8-1, R4: Tulio 2-1, R5: Santal 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R6: Touch Of Honor 5-1, R6: Smoke 6-1
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Vino Rosso and Silent Respect breeding. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (116 tried).
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 3 here: 49 wins, 156 top-3 in 332 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Vino Rosso out of Silent Respect (Silent Name)
Trainer C. David: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 40% in the money (116 starts) · 2-year-olds: 17% wins, 45% in the money (343 starts)
Jockey L. Reyes in turf: 21 wins from 132 (16%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 PMM 4f :50.40 breezing 54/67 from gate
10/18 PMM 4f :51.60 breezing 15/15
10/3 ARI 4f :51.20 breezing 2/2
9/19 ARI 4f :50.40 breezing 2/2
9/12 ARI 4f :51.00 breezing 1/2 ● bullet
4JenlovestoshopM. Meneses · J. SweezeyMeneses · SweezeyA72@trip 724-1Fair 6-115%—72@trip 72A3
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72
Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 3-for-23 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer J Kent Sweezey 29% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Hammy 20-1, R8: Del Mar Sunrise 8-1 · Trainer R6: Hammy 20-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Gets a new rider, Marcos Meneses replacing Rajiv Maragh. Last out was 4th, 4¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at GP.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 21; 1 work in 30d
RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 4 here: 9 wins, 28 top-3 in 85 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 GP 1m T MCL 25k 4th/9 -4¼L 72 8.4-1 Slow early; late int
5Irish TaleJ. Torrealba · R. SpatzTorrealba · SpatzB71 53 56▲▲+16@trip 7110-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best71 53 56@trip 71B
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 53 56
Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career ★ 4-for-18 on turf this meet (22%) · Trainer Ronald B Spatz 27% career 2-for-7 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R8: Elenique 8-1, R10: Cryingintherain 10-1 · Trainer R6: Kissed By A Rose 20-1
0/3 board here
Beaten 4½ lengths for 5th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at GP. A 71 top number against a 75 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 9d back
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 5 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 28 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 GP 1m T MCL 25k 5th/9 -4½L 71 20-1 b Mildly;no imapct
9/4 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 25k 5th/5 -10L 53 3.7-1 b Crowded st;trailed
8/9 GP 5½f D MCL 25k 6th/6 -7L 56 5.4-1 b 5-6p to 1/4;no factor
6Hattie G▼H. Figueroa · H. SmullenFigueroa · SmullenC49 638-1Fair 12-18%—49 63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 49 63
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Heriberto Figueroa 28% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%) · Trainer Heather Smullen 21% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)
Also today · Trainer R10: Bayou Brigid 10-1
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Purse drops from $45,000 to $33,500 against its last start.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days ago
RECORD Heriberto Figueroa from post 6 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 49 rides · 5% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 8th/8 -16L 49 27-1 b Stalked 2w; gave way
8/15 GP 5f T MSW 7th/8 -5½L 63 24-1 b Saved ground; no bid
7Magic Mini▼J. Rios · A. SanoRios · SanoC63 55@trip 6315-1Fair 20-15%—63 55@trip 63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 55
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Jesus M Rios 28% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-15 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Eton 10-1, R6: Touch Of Honor 5-1 · Trainer this race: Gustavia 8-1
CLASS DROP
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call. A 63 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 6d back)
RECORD Jesus M Rios from post 7 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 95 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m T MCL 25k 5th/7 -13L 63 8.9-1 Bmp brk;3p2nd;no thret
8/29 GP 5f D MCL 35k 5th/8 -5L 55 20-1 Bump rvl st;no imapct
8Olympic Kitty▼J. Morelos · H. DominguezMorelos · DominguezC5120-1Fair 30-14%—51C▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 51
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-25 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Huber Dominguez 32% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Noble Prince 10-1, R4: Don't Tell Bert 12-1, R5: Araucano 6-1, R6: Chica Feliz 50-1 +3 more
Runs for $33,500 today after a $45,000 race last time. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 14d ago
RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 8 here: 15 wins, 45 top-3 in 158 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 7th/8 -20L 51 10-1 Inside; no factor
9Causeshzprecocious▼LSS. Leon · D. NunnLeon · NunnB65 55 62▲+4@trip 658-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +4 · career best65 55 62@trip 65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75LS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 55 62
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-21 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Douglas Nunn 23% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Seaver 9-2, R4: Mischief Holiday 15-1, R5: Love Hate 15-1
A 65 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par. 3rd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 7.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Sonny Leon from post 9 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 33 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m T MCL 25k 3rd/7 -4L 65 5.2-1 b Bmp brk;2p;chase on
9/19 GP 6f D MSW 5th/6 -6½L 55 26-1 b One-paced; no threat;
9/5 GP 7½f T Moc50000 5th/7 -7L 62 29-1 b Chased; no menace
10Starship Excelsior▼▲Y. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'AngeloB669-2Fair 8-110%—66B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 66
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 0-for-23 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-35 on turf this meet (23%), #3 of 16
Also today · Jockey R4: Astrogem 5-2, R6: Philipina A 30-1 · Trainer R4: Astrogem 5-2, R6: Philipina A 30-1, R6: Casablanca Queen 8-1
Jky 0/18 from post 10
A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, a mile today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Yolber Torres has never won from post 10 here (2 top-3 in 18 rides) · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 GP 5f D MSW 7th/9 -10L 66 10-1 Failed to menace;

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	PMM	4f	:50.40	breezing	54/67	from gate
10/18	PMM	4f	:51.60	breezing	15/15
10/3	ARI	4f	:51.20	breezing	2/2
9/19	ARI	4f	:50.40	breezing	2/2
9/12	ARI	4f	:51.00	breezing	1/2	● bullet

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	4th/9 -4¼L	72	8.4-1		Slow early; late int

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	5th/9 -4½L	71	20-1	b	Mildly;no imapct
9/4	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 25k	5th/5 -10L	53	3.7-1	b	Crowded st;trailed
8/9	GP	5½f D	MCL 25k	6th/6 -7L	56	5.4-1	b	5-6p to 1/4;no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	8th/8 -16L	49	27-1	b	Stalked 2w; gave way
8/15	GP	5f T	MSW	7th/8 -5½L	63	24-1	b	Saved ground; no bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	5th/7 -13L	63	8.9-1		Bmp brk;3p2nd;no thret
8/29	GP	5f D	MCL 35k	5th/8 -5L	55	20-1		Bump rvl st;no imapct

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	7th/8 -20L	51	10-1		Inside; no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	3rd/7 -4L	65	5.2-1	b	Bmp brk;2p;chase on
9/19	GP	6f D	MSW	5th/6 -6½L	55	26-1	b	One-paced; no threat;
9/5	GP	7½f T	Moc50000	5th/7 -7L	62	29-1	b	Chased; no menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	5f D	MSW	7th/9 -10L	66	10-1		Failed to menace;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $25,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$33,500

Post

12:05 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#1 · 23%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Grant Me Peace (a closer, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 66 · 71 · 68. Backup is #2 Gustavia at 8-1. Use #4 Jenlovestoshop in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 GRANT ME PEACE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 GRANT ME PEACE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 22.1%).
#4 JENLOVESTOSHOP — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 15.5%).
#10 STARSHIP EXCELSIOR — our #10 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 14.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #9 Causeshzprecocious; pressure from #2 Gustavia.

Lead

9Causeshzprecocious802Gustavia79

Press

none

Stalk

none

1Grant Me Peace73

No style yet

10Starship Excelsior925Irish Tale786Hattie G754Jenlovestoshop737Magic Mini738Olympic Kitty723Vino

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Causeshzprecocious

Gustavia

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Grant Me Peace

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Bet types

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