Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.
● Live race intelligence · code GP
Gulfstream Park
Friday, October 30, 2026.
Races
10
on the card
Feature
R6
Our Dear Pg Stakes · $75K
First post
12:05 PM
ET · race 1
Runners
85
avg field 8
● Track conditions today
Gulfstream Park — today's signals
Surface read
±0.60s STEADY
Surface holds steady day to day — final times read true off the page, so our speed figures need little adjustment here.
day-to-day swing · 216 race-days sampled
Weather
80° Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Wet/off-track risk — turf may come off, dirt plays tiring. Fast-track form discounts; wet-track & mud pedigree weight up.
67% precip next 6h
Carryover pool
None today
No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.
Do the model's percentages hold up?
Mostly
Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.
checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06
TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST
Best post #1 (13%) · Rail helps
Even by post — inside 12% / outside 9%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 46,347 starts.
Where the model is most sure
Three highest model win %.
The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.
Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg,
or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all.
This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.
Pick 3Races 1–3 · $1 min
R1#1 Grant Me PeaceTop pick
R2#5 Zozan · #3 Seaver · #2 SwashbuckleClose: top 3
R3#6 Daunting · #1 BarjoujClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 1–5 · $.50 min
R1#1 Grant Me PeaceTop pick
R2#5 Zozan · #3 Seaver · #2 SwashbuckleClose: top 3
R3#6 Daunting · #1 BarjoujClose: top 2
R4#3 Subtle SirTop pick
R5#3 Sofocles · #4 Valiant WinterClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 2–4 · $1 min
R2#5 Zozan · #3 Seaver · #2 SwashbuckleClose: top 3
R3#6 Daunting · #1 BarjoujClose: top 2
R4#3 Subtle SirTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–5 · $.50 min
R2#5 Zozan · #3 Seaver · #2 SwashbuckleClose: top 3
R3#6 Daunting · #1 BarjoujClose: top 2
R4#3 Subtle SirTop pick
R5#3 Sofocles · #4 Valiant WinterClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 3–5 · $1 min
R3#6 Daunting · #1 BarjoujClose: top 2
R4#3 Subtle SirTop pick
R5#3 Sofocles · #4 Valiant WinterClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 4–6 · $1 min
R4#3 Subtle SirTop pick
R5#3 Sofocles · #4 Valiant WinterClose: top 2
R6#11 Smoke · #5 Sucker For LooksClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 4–7 · $.50 min
R4#3 Subtle SirTop pick
R5#3 Sofocles · #4 Valiant WinterClose: top 2
R6#11 Smoke · #5 Sucker For LooksClose: top 2
R7#7 MishTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 5–7 · $1 min
R5#3 Sofocles · #4 Valiant WinterClose: top 2
R6#11 Smoke · #5 Sucker For LooksClose: top 2
R7#7 MishTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 6Races 5–10 · $.20 min
R5#3 Sofocles · #4 Valiant WinterClose: top 2
R6#11 Smoke · #5 Sucker For LooksClose: top 2
R7#7 MishTop pick
R8#7 New Life · #3 Tell Me Some Lies · #9 Del Mar SunriseClose: top 3
R9#5 Irish AdieuTop pick
R10#3 Striking Finale · #8 Day To Day · #7 Come On TeeshaClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 6–8 · $1 min
R6#11 Smoke · #5 Sucker For LooksClose: top 2
R7#7 MishTop pick
R8#7 New Life · #3 Tell Me Some Lies · #9 Del Mar SunriseClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 6–10 · $.50 min
R6#11 Smoke · #5 Sucker For LooksClose: top 2
R7#7 MishTop pick
R8#7 New Life · #3 Tell Me Some Lies · #9 Del Mar SunriseClose: top 3
R9#5 Irish AdieuTop pick
R10#3 Striking Finale · #8 Day To Day · #7 Come On TeeshaClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 7–9 · $1 min
R7#7 MishTop pick
R8#7 New Life · #3 Tell Me Some Lies · #9 Del Mar SunriseClose: top 3
R9#5 Irish AdieuTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 7–10 · $.50 min
R7#7 MishTop pick
R8#7 New Life · #3 Tell Me Some Lies · #9 Del Mar SunriseClose: top 3
R9#5 Irish AdieuTop pick
R10#3 Striking Finale · #8 Day To Day · #7 Come On TeeshaClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Late Pick 3Races 8–10 · $3 min
R8#7 New Life · #3 Tell Me Some Lies · #9 Del Mar SunriseClose: top 3
R9#5 Irish AdieuTop pick
R10#3 Striking Finale · #8 Day To Day · #7 Come On TeeshaClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 9–10 · $1 min
R9#5 Irish AdieuTop pick
R10#3 Striking Finale · #8 Day To Day · #7 Come On TeeshaClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Today's races
Race-by-race with archetype.
Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.
For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.