R5 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $10,000

2:25 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Dirt · $23,000 · 7 runners2:25 PM · 5f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $23K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1AraucanoJ. Morelos · J. EnglerMorelos · EnglerA68 68 83▼-3@trip 846-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -368 68 83@trip 84A

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 68 83

    Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-47 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Jeff Engler 26% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Olympic Kitty 20-1, R2: Noble Prince 10-1, R4: Don't Tell Bert 12-1, R6: Chica Feliz 50-1 +3 more · Trainer R4: Don't Tell Bert 12-1, R10: Bert's Knoty Girl 15-1

    Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 79 for the next best. Raises its level, $8,000 claiming last time and $10,000 claiming now.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 11 starts here
    RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 1 here: 39 wins, 115 top-3 in 273 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9GP5½f DClm 10k b3rd/8 -5L689.7-1LSvd gnd;improved
    9/18GP5f DClm 10k b7th/8 -5¼L683.0-1LOutside;2p;no kick
    9/4GP5f DClm 10k b2nd/8 -4L8327-1LAngld out;closed fast
  2. 2El Muheet▼D. Herrera · J. OrsenoHerrera · OrsenoB74 64 72▲+4@trip 744-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +4 · career best74 64 72@trip 74B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 853

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 64 72

    ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 85
    Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 9-for-62 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Joseph F Orseno 28% career 3-for-17 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Gustavia 8-1, R3: Daunting 9-5, R4: Our Willow 4-1, R6: Sucker For Looks 5-2 +4 more · Trainer this race: Valiant Winter 10-1, R8: Tell Me Some Lies 2-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKJky 20/69 from post 2

    Returns from a 159-day break, the biggest in the field. Finished 3rd in a 6-horse $8,000 claiming race at GP, beaten ½ length.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 4 (4F in :46.60), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 33 top-3 in 69 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    5/24GP5f DClm 8k b3rd/6 -½L744.7-1b LRail bid;kept at bay
    4/26GP5½f DClm 12k b5th/7 -9L6414-1b LStep slow;3p; no rally
    4/4GP5½f DClm 8k n2lWon/7724.3-1b LBid between; gamely
  3. 3SofoclesM. Vasquez · N. RamseyVasquez · RamseyA75 77 84▼-4≡@trip 849-5Fair 5-227%▼ Down -475 77 84 ≡@trip 84A1

    Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 77 84

    Jockey Miguel Angel Vasquez 33% career ★ 10-for-41 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 19 · Trainer Nolan Ramsey 37% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Grant Me Peace 5-2, R6: Kissed By A Rose 20-1, R7: Final Payment 6-1, R8: More Applause 10-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: Striking Finale 8-1
    WON LAST6/10 board here

    Nolan Ramsey takes over the training from Sebastian Pulgarin. Winner of an 8-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP last time.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 212d back)
    RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Miguel Angel Vasquez from post 3 here: 58 wins, 175 top-3 in 377 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9GP5½f DClm 10k bcWon/8752.8-1b LSvd gnd;bid1/4;clear
    9/18GP5f DClm 10k bWon/8 by ¾772.5-1b LSvd gnd;bid1/4;clr
    8/29GP5f DClm 10k n2lcWon/6 by ½842.0-1b LKicked upper;pull clr
  4. 4Valiant Winter▼J. Santos · J. OrsenoSantos · OrsenoB66 76 69▼▼-9@trip 7910-1Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -966 76 69@trip 79B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 852

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 76 69

    ▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85
    Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Joseph F Orseno 28% career 3-for-17 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Zozan 9-5, R4: Subtle Sir 7-2 · Trainer this race: El Muheet 4-1, R8: Tell Me Some Lies 2-1
    7/10 board here

    Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call. 8th last time, 4¼ lengths back, in a field of 8.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 6d back
    RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/18GP5f DClm 10k b8th/8 -4¼L665.6-1b LInside;2p;no bid
    8/9GP5f DClm 10k b2nd/6 -1L767.2-1b L4p;vied;outkicked
    7/20GP5f DClm 17k b5th/5 -3L6914-1b LChased 2w; tired
  5. 5Love Hate▼▲S. Leon · K. O'ConnellLeon · O'ConnellC64 72 48►↕@trip 7215-1Fair 20-15%► Steady64 72 48 ↕@trip 72C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 85▲ Lone speed on early pace

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–72 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 72 48

    ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 85▲ Lone speed on early pace
    Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Kathleen O'Connell 32% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Causeshzprecocious 8-1, R2: Seaver 9-2, R4: Mischief Holiday 15-1 · Trainer R4: Our Willow 4-1, R4: Mischief Holiday 15-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Moves up from $8,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. A 72 is the high figure lately, short of the 85 par.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 96 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts here
    RECORD Sonny Leon from post 5 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 63 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9GP5½f DClm 10k b5th/8 -½L6417-1b LLed;svd gnd;wkn1/8
    9/18GP5f DClm 10k b6th/8 by hd7218-1b LLed;svd gnd;gv way
    9/4GP5f DClm 10k b8th/8 -7½L4814-1b LClose up;tired stretch
  6. 6Santal▼LSL. Reyes · R. CoyReyes · CoyB64 73 70▼▼-8@trip 7810-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -864 73 70@trip 78B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 85LS

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 73 70

    ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 85LS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ronald Coy 29% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Vino 10-1, R2: King Of Hollywood 5-2, R3: Star Of The Gun 8-1, R4: Tulio 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Noble Prince 10-1

    Best recent figure is 73, well under the 85 par for this level. Last out was 4th, 8 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 9 starts here
    RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 6 here: 30 wins, 139 top-3 in 336 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9GP5½f DClm 10k b4th/8 -8L644.9-1LBtwn;2p;no threat
    9/18GP5f DClm 10k b4th/8 -3¾L736.5-1LOutside;4p;improved
    8/24GP1 1/16 DClm 10k b5th/7 -5½L704.0-1b LInside; weakened
  7. 7CarconeE. Perez · V. Barboza Jr.Perez · Barboza Jr.A72 75 74▼-3≡@trip 782-1Fair 7-222%▼ Down -372 75 74 ≡@trip 78A

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 72–75 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 75 74

    Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 2-for-22 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza ★ 8-for-18 on dirt this meet (44%), #1 of 31
    Also today · Jockey R4: Slew De Oro 15-1 · Trainer R6: Karolina Pharoah 10-1, R8: Tape Runner 8-1, R8: New Life 3-1, R10: Super Sienna 12-1
    7/13 board here

    A step up in company: $8,000 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)
    RECORD 0 wins, 7 on the board from 13 starts here
    RECORD Edgar Perez from post 7 here: 19 wins, 83 top-3 in 205 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9GP5½f DClm 10k b2nd/8 -6L722.1-1b L2p;bid1/4;late gain
    9/18GP5f DClm 10k b3rd/8 -3¾L754.2-1b L5p;bid1/4;late gain
    7/20GP5f DClm 17k b4th/5 -2L743.9-1b LChased inside; no bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART5 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field
7 runners
Purse
$23,000
Post
2:25 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#3 · 27%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 54.89

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Sofocles (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 75 · 77 · 84. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Valiant Winter at 10-1. Use #2 El Muheet in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 SOFOCLES (9-5) — our number agrees.
  • #3 SOFOCLES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.6% to their 28.0%).
  • #7 CARCONE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 26.1%).
  • #2 EL MUHEET — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 VALIANT WINTER (10-1) — our fair 8.4% is above the morning line's 7.1%; supported by: last out: "Inside;2p;no bid" — finished with authority
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Love Hate; pressure from #4 Valiant Winter, #1 Araucano; the shape helps #1 Araucano, #2 El Muheet, #3 Sofocles; and works against #5 Love Hate.

Lead
5Love Hate101
Press
4Valiant Winter901Araucano896Santal88
Stalk
3Sofocles947Carcone872El Muheet82
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

5
Love Hate
101
3
Sofocles
94
4
Valiant Winter
90
1
Araucano
89
6
Santal
88
7
Carcone
87
2
El Muheet
82

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Araucano
15
3
Sofocles
15
4
Valiant Winter
15
5
Love Hate
15
6
Santal
15
7
Carcone
15
2
El Muheet
10
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Bet types

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