R7 Gulfstream Park · Optional Claiming $20,000

3:45 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $28,500 · 7 runners3:45 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $28K · Optional Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Final Payment▲M. Vasquez · B. ChapmanVasquez · ChapmanB90 81 88▲+7@trip 946-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +790 81 88@trip 94B▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 88

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 81 88

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 88

Jockey Miguel Angel Vasquez 33% career ★ 10-for-41 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 19 · Trainer Beau J Chapman 26% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Grant Me Peace 5-2, R5: Sofocles 9-5, R6: Kissed By A Rose 20-1, R8: More Applause 10-1 +2 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST9/10 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $35,000 claiming race at GP. Was running in $35,000 claiming; today's optional claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 24; 3 works in 30d

RECORD 5 wins, 9 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Miguel Angel Vasquez from post 1 here: 57 wins, 152 top-3 in 364 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	GP	6f D	Clm 35k n2x	Won/6 by 3	90	1.0-1	L	Wore down rivals
8/15	GP	7f D	sAlw65000n1x	3rd/8 -2½L	81	3.5-1	L	Chs bet; pulled;3w bid
7/11	GP	1m D	OC 20k	2nd/5 -1L	88	4.2-1	L	Prompt outs;2nd best

2He Be HoppinC. Martinez · E. NunezMartinez · NunezB73 75 61▼-3↕@trip 9120-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -373 75 61 ↕@trip 91B2
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–91 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 75 61
Jockey Carlos Martinez 33% career 2-for-32 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Eduardo Nunez 27% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: E Z Shopping 15-1
Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Best recent figure of 91 sits right around the 88 par.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 133d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Carlos Martinez from post 2 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 27 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 GP 1m D OC 20k 5th/5 -6½L 73 22-1 L Pace;pressed;faded
9/4 GP 6f D OC 20k 4th/6 -6L 75 27-1 L 3w;angld in;no threat
8/16 GP 6f D OC 25k n1x 6th/6 -7L 61 4.5-1 L Took no part
3Captain EddieD. Herrera · A. SanchezHerrera · SanchezB77 75 84►@trip 7810-1Fair 15-16%► Steady77 75 84@trip 78B
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 84
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 9-for-62 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Amador Merei Sanchez 34% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Gustavia 8-1, R3: Daunting 9-5, R4: Our Willow 4-1, R5: El Muheet 4-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Seaver 9-2
7/12 board here
Off 49 days since the last start. Led at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jan 24 (4F in :48.20), 1 work in 30d
RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 12 starts here
RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 3 here: 9 wins, 40 top-3 in 72 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 GP 5½f D OC 20k 4th/6 77 3.3-1 L Duel;2p;drift;caught
8/8 GP 5f D Clm 10k c 3rd/6 -5L 75 1.1-1 L Ins;angl out;willingly
7/18 GP 5½f D Clm 10k c Won/8 84 2.5-1 L Pace inside;stayed clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1m D	OC 20k	5th/5 -6½L	73	22-1	L	Pace;pressed;faded
9/4	GP	6f D	OC 20k	4th/6 -6L	75	27-1	L	3w;angld in;no threat
8/16	GP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	6th/6 -7L	61	4.5-1	L	Took no part

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	GP	5½f D	OC 20k	4th/6	77	3.3-1	L	Duel;2p;drift;caught
8/8	GP	5f D	Clm 10k c	3rd/6 -5L	75	1.1-1	L	Ins;angl out;willingly
7/18	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k c	Won/8	84	2.5-1	L	Pace inside;stayed clr

4AjaaybJ. Morelos · J. AriasMorelos · AriasA68 89 76▼▼-16↕@trip 923-1Fair 9-218%▼▼ Big drop -1668 89 76 ↕@trip 92A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–89 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 89 76

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-47 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Juan D Arias 17% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Olympic Kitty 20-1, R2: Noble Prince 10-1, R4: Don't Tell Bert 12-1, R5: Araucano 6-1 +3 more

Switches from turf to dirt. Drops from handicap to optional claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 29d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 4 here: 22 wins, 85 top-3 in 271 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	5f T	Handicap	11th/11 -10L	68	66-1	b L	Outside;5p;empty
8/16	GP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	3rd/6 by hd	89	12-1	b L	Worn down last 1/8th
6/26	CD	6½f D	Clm 62k	6th/7 -6½L	76	21-1	b L	Prss wnnr;wknd btw upr

5Proud AmericanL. Reyes · M. EpplerReyes · EpplerA59 88 92▼▼-22↕@trip 924-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -2259 88 92 ↕@trip 92A
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 88 92
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Mary E Eppler 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Vino 10-1, R2: King Of Hollywood 5-2, R3: Star Of The Gun 8-1, R4: Tulio 2-1 +5 more
CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK6/11 board here
Figures have slipped: 92, 88, 59 over its last three. Has won 4 of 5 going today's distance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 30 (4F in :48.80), 0 works in 30d
RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here
RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 5 here: 48 wins, 143 top-3 in 332 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 GP 6f D OC 25k n1x 6th/7 -11L 59 2.1-1 b L Chased 4w; gave way
10/2 GP 5½f D OC 20k 2nd/5 -2L 88 3.1-1 b L Angled out;good bid
9/4 GP 6f D OC 20k Won/6 92 7.3-1 b L Rail bid;held well

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	GP	6f D	OC 25k n1x	6th/7 -11L	59	2.1-1	b L	Chased 4w; gave way
10/2	GP	5½f D	OC 20k	2nd/5 -2L	88	3.1-1	b L	Angled out;good bid
9/4	GP	6f D	OC 20k	Won/6	92	7.3-1	b L	Rail bid;held well

6I'm Tuff Enough▼J. Santana · A. WilliamsSantana · WilliamsC77 60 55▲▲+17↕@trip 6620-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best77 60 55 ↕@trip 66C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 88

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–77 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 60 55

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 88

Jockey J Z Santana 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Andrew Williams 31% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and optional claiming now. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 77 against a 88 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 46 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	5f D	Clm 10k n2l	2nd/6 -3L	77	31-1	b L	Chased 4wd; ran on
9/20	GP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	7th/8 -10L	60	8.8-1	b L	Chased; through early;
8/2	GP	6½f D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/8 -6L	55	5.4-1	b L	Press;chase;weakened

7Mish▲★E. Gonzalez · S. Joseph Jr.Gonzalez · Joseph Jr.A90 91 90►≡@trip 961-1Fair 9-536%► Steady90 91 90 ≡@trip 96A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 88★ Best at the trip 961
Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 91 90
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 88★ Best at the trip 96
Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph ★ 12-for-31 on dirt this meet (39%), #2 of 31
Also today · Jockey R8: Nashville Slew 20-1, R9: Zeus's Echo 5-1, R10: Day To Day 2-1 · Trainer R3: Barjouj 2-1, R6: Life's Mystery 9-2, R9: Zeus's Echo 5-1, R9: Al Loud 2-1 +3 more
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST6/8 board here
Last start was a win, in a 5-horse optional claiming race at GP at 0.8-1. Owns the highest recent figure here at 96.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago
RECORD 5 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here
RECORD Edwin Gonzalez from post 7 here: 47 wins, 119 top-3 in 268 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 GP 5½f D OC 20k Won/5 90 0.8-1 L Circled;lead;held safe
9/4 GP 6f D OC 20k 2nd/6 -1L 91 0.4-1 L Vied 3w;held at bay
8/3 GP 6f D OC 20k c Won/4 90 1.9-1 L Re-bid 2w turn; held

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	5½f D	OC 20k	Won/5	90	0.8-1	L	Circled;lead;held safe
9/4	GP	6f D	OC 20k	2nd/6 -1L	91	0.4-1	L	Vied 3w;held at bay
8/3	GP	6f D	OC 20k c	Won/4	90	1.9-1	L	Re-bid 2w turn; held

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $20,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$28,500

Post

3:45 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 36%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.12

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Mish (a presser/stalker, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 90 · 91 · 90. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 He Be Hoppin at 20-1. Use #4 Ajaayb in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 MISH (1-1) — our number agrees.
#7 MISH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (35.9% to their 39.1%).
#4 AJAAYB — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 19.5%).
#5 PROUD AMERICAN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (15.9% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 HE BE HOPPIN (20-1) — our fair 5.0% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 I'm Tuff Enough; pressure from #4 Ajaayb, #7 Mish; the shape helps #1 Final Payment, #2 He Be Hoppin, #3 Captain Eddie; and works against #4 Ajaayb, #6 I'm Tuff Enough.

Lead

6I'm Tuff Enough914Ajaayb88

Press

7Mish953Captain Eddie935Proud American922He Be Hoppin89

Stalk

1Final Payment94

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mish

Final Payment

Captain Eddie

Proud American

I'm Tuff Enough

He Be Hoppin

Ajaayb

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Final Payment

Captain Eddie

He Be Hoppin

Proud American

I'm Tuff Enough

Ajaayb

Mish

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1 BET 3 (RACES 7-8-9) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 7-8-9-10)

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