INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 3
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $50,000
Claiming $50,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 98.92
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #6 Royal Justice (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 86 · 85 · 80. Backup is #2 Moon Law at 7-2. Use #3 Asteria in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Cuts back from 1 3/8 miles to 1 1/16 miles. Figures are climbing: 80, 85, 86 over its last three.
Last start was a win, in a 10-horse allowance race at IND at 7.3-1. Tops the field on speed figures, a 93 against 87 for the next best.
Class relief: optional claiming last time, allowance optional claiming today. Best recent figure is 78, well under the 87 par for this level.
A 76 is the high figure lately, short of the 87 par. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.
A big drop, optional claiming to allowance optional claiming, and worth asking why. New trainer: John Alexander Ortiz had it last time, Michelle Lovell now.
Has moved up each time out, 75 to 77 to 81. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at IND.
Changes barns, from Anna Navarrete to Sarah E Shaffer. Gets a new rider, Joseph C Bealmear replacing Luan Machado.
Switches from dirt to turf. Sarah E Shaffer takes over the training from Anthony J Granitz.
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. A 55-day gap since its last race.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 ROYAL JUSTICE (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #6 ROYAL JUSTICE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 20.9%).
- #8 COACH ALBERT LADY — our #9 number, about right at the windows (15.8% to their 18.0%).
- #2 MOON LAW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 14.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 RAZZLE RED (12-1) — our fair 5.6% is above the morning line's 4.8%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Junta; pressure from #2 Moon Law, #6 Royal Justice; the shape helps #2 Moon Law, #4 Bijou Baby, #6 Royal Justice; and works against #7 Junta.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA
10 CENT SUPERFECTA
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta