1High CampM. Franco · W. WaldenFranco · WaldenC72 89 91▼▼-188-1Fair 8-110%
▼▼ Big drop -1872 89 91C2Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · Last 3 figs 72 89 91
Also today · Jockey R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Coast Highway 10-1, R5: Sargent Bilko 20-1 +5 more180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSReturns from a 230-day break. Runs for $165,000 today after a $500,000 race last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 4 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 3/14 CNL 1⅛m D VADerbyB500k 10th/10 -14L 72 4.3-1 b Outpaced 3wd; empty 2/7 GP 7f D MSW Won/10 by 1 89 1.2-1 b L 4wbtw;6w3/16;determin 12/28 GP 6f D MSW 2nd/8 -1½L 91 4.6-1 b Rail;angled1/8;kept on 2Lincoln's LawA. Concepcion · P. BauerConcepcion · BauerC72 93 88▼▼-17@trip 8812-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1772 93 88@trip 88CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 93 88
Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 3-for-37 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Philip A Bauer 36% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meetJky 0/21 from post 2Finished 8th in a 12-horse allowance race at KEE, beaten 10 lengths. Moves up from allowance to allowance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoRECORD Axel Concepcion has never won from post 2 here (4 top-3 in 21 rides) · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 KEE 7f D Alw n1x 8th/12 -10L 72 3.2-1 b L 3-2wbtw;improved 5p1/4 9/12 CD 6f D Alw n1x 2nd/10 -1½L 93 3.0-1 b L Bmpd btw st;ins;rally 6/25 CD 6½f D OC 125k n1x 2nd/9 -½L 88 5.9-1 b L 3-2w;vied;fended off 3Bob's CarrotJ. Torres · C. SantamariaTorres · SantamariaB83 93 88▼-7≡15-1Fair 12-18%
▼ Down -783 93 88 ≡B3Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 83–93 · Last 3 figs 83 93 88
Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 5-for-32 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Carlos Santamaria 15% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meetJky 0/15 from post 3A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today. Best recent figure of 93 sits right around the 92 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days agoRECORD Jaime A Torres has never won from post 3 here (5 top-3 in 15 rides) · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 KEE 7f D Alw n1x 4th/12 -4L 83 8.5-1 b L Press winner;fade 3/16 9/16 CD 7f D Alw s Won/7 93 2.5-1 b L Always in command 8/16 ELP 6f D Alw n1x 3rd/8 -½L 88 5.6-1 b L Dueld 3w;headd btw 1/8 4GhazaalyT. Gaffalione · D. JacobsonGaffalione · JacobsonA91 91 86►≡6-1Fair 8-111%
► Steady91 91 86 ≡ACard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–94 · Last 3 figs 91 91 86
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 16-for-60 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer David Jacobson 32% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Niosa 2-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R5: Kingside 9-2 +6 more · Trainer R1: Drake's Passage 30-160D LAYOFFCLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSDavid Jacobson takes over the training from Doug O'Neill. Shortens up to 6½ furlongs after going a mile.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 17 days agoRECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 4 here: 12 wins, 28 top-3 in 57 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/5 SA 1m D OC 50k n1x 3rd/7 91 4.7-1 b L 4-2w;3-2w;led;flattend 5/16 SA 1m D OC 32k 2nd/5 -1½L 91 0.6-1 b L Aim 2wide; turned away 4/5 SA 1m D OC 50k n1x 4th/6 -4L 86 1.6-1 b L Saved ground;flattened 5Send CashLSB. Hernandez Jr. · D. FawkesHernandez Jr. · FawkesB91 87 89▲+4≡@trip 8715-1Fair 15-17%
▲ Up +4 · career best91 87 89 ≡@trip 87BLSCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 85–91 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 87 89
LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer David Fawkes 34% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKBeaten a head for 3rd in a 10-horse allowance race at CD. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 20 (5F in 1:00.00), 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 6f D Alw n1x 3rd/10 by hd 91 5.4-1 L Duel ins-2p;saved show 7/25 ELP 6½f D Alw s 2nd/5 by hd 87 1.1-1 L Stmbld st;duel 2w;game 6/10 CD 6f D Alw s Won/8 89 2.7-1 L Prompt 2w-3p;drew off 6Global AviatorL. Saez · R. CrichtonSaez · CrichtonB83 935-1Fair 8-111%
—83 93BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 83 93
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKBack after 272 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Back to 6½ furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)RECORD Luis Saez from post 6 here: 9 wins, 21 top-3 in 58 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 1/31 GP 1 1/16 D HolyBull G3 5th/6 -6½L 83 12-1 b Bit tight start; 2-4wd 11/29 GP 6f D MSW Won/6 93 2.3-1 b Off slow;5w move;held 7Cornwall Boss▲J. Ortiz · M. StidhamOrtiz · StidhamA98 90 81▲▲+123-1Fair 5-116%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best98 90 81A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 92Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 98 90 81
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 92Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 11-for-67 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Michael Stidham 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Special Session 12-1, R2: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R3: Majik Mooney 10-1, R5: McCoy 7-2 +5 more★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTTops the field on speed figures, a 98 against 97 for the next best. Has moved up each time out, 81 to 90 to 98.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.60 on Sep 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 7 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 34 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 DEL 6f D MSW Won/6 98 0.2-1 L Stlkd;3w 1/4;drove clr 11/29 CD 7f D MSW 2nd/12 -4L 90 8.8-1 Trck ins;ran on;2d bst 10/9 DEL 6f D MSW 2nd/7 by nk 81 1.9-1 Track 5w; duel; nailed 8Imagine JohnU. Rispoli · J. AntonucciRispoli · AntonucciC75 89 82▼▼-9@trip 8220-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -975 89 82@trip 82CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 89 82
Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKSwitches from turf to dirt. Sheds 5 pounds from its last start.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 30; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 SAR 5½f T Alw n1x 7th/8 -2½L 75 25-1 b L Chased 2p; weakened 8/5 SAR 6f D OC 75k 3rd/7 -½L 89 3.1-1 b L Dueled 4-2w; fought on 6/6 SAR 6½f D Alw n1x 6th/13 -4L 82 50-1 b L Bmp brk;5p turn;tired 9Big Apple Patrick▼▲K. Kimura · D. LeitchKimura · LeitchC77 82 84▼-620-1Fair 30-13%
▼ Down -677 82 84C▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 92▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprintCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 77 82 84
▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 92▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFigures have slipped: 84, 82, 77 over its last three. 314 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 26 (3F in :36.60), 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 12/20 RP 1m D SprngbdMi Stk 6th/11 -8½L 77 17-1 4w; bid; flattened out 11/22 CD 1 1/16 D Alw s 3rd/8 by hd 82 5.3-1 Ins;collared upr;yield 10/29 CD 7f D MSW Won/10 84 19-1 2wbtw;7p1/4;drove clr 10Campobasso▲★F. Prat · B. BaffertPrat · BaffertA97 89 85▲▲+10@trip 892-1Fair 3-124%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best97 89 85@trip 89A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 92★ Best at the trip 891Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 89 85
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 92★ Best at the trip 89Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 10-for-20 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R2: Maitresse 10-1, R3: Maxify 8-1, R5: Yacht Master 4-1 +6 more · Trainer R5: Yacht Master 4-1, R7: Miss Monica 5-2, R9: Salahudin 6-1, R9: Hughes 1-160D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at ELP at 0.7-1. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and allowance now.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 19; 4 works in 30dRECORD Flavien Prat from post 10 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 31 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/15 ELP 6f D MSW Won/8 97 0.7-1 L 3p;bid 2w;held firm 6/27 CD 6½f D MSW 2nd/8 -½L 89 2.1-1 b L Ins winner;fought on 5/31 CD 6½f D MSW 2nd/11 by hd 85 1.8-1 b L 3w;bid;dueld;outfinshd
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
KEENELAND · RACE 4
UPCOMINGAllowance · $165,000 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.82
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #10 Campobasso (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 97 · 89 · 85. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 High Camp at 8-1. Use #3 Bob's Carrot in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 CAMPOBASSO (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #10 CAMPOBASSO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 25.6%).
- #7 CORNWALL BOSS — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.4% to their 19.2%).
- #6 GLOBAL AVIATOR — our #7 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 12.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Send Cash; pressure from #3 Bob's Carrot, #8 Imagine John; the shape helps #1 High Camp, #2 Lincoln's Law, #4 Ghazaaly; and works against #3 Bob's Carrot, #5 Send Cash.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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BET OPTIONS
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