1Yacht MasterF. Prat · B. BaffertPrat · BaffertA844-1Fair 7-113%
—84ACard model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 84
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 10-for-20 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R2: Maitresse 10-1, R3: Maxify 8-1, R4: Campobasso 2-1 +6 more · Trainer R4: Campobasso 2-1, R7: Miss Monica 5-2, R9: Salahudin 6-1, R9: Hughes 1-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTJky 11/41 from post 1Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at CD. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, allowance optional claiming today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD Flavien Prat from post 1 here: 11 wins, 22 top-3 in 41 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 CD 5½f D MSW Won/7 by hd 84 2.7-1 b Ins;rl bid;duel;prvail 2KingsideT. Gaffalione · B. WalshGaffalione · WalshA849-2Fair 8-111%
—84ACard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #11 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 84
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 16-for-60 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ 7-for-27 on dirt this meet (26%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Niosa 2-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R4: Ghazaaly 6-1 +6 more · Trainer R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1 +2 more★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at KEE at 6.8-1. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and allowance optional claiming now.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 25 (4F in :47.00), 2 works in 30dRECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 2 here: 4 wins, 21 top-3 in 46 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D MSW Won/10 by nk 84 6.8-1 Bmpd btw;stalk 4p;clrd 3Bet on SilverB. Curtis · B. WalshCurtis · WalshC46 82 76▼▼-29↕12-1Fair 8-110%
▼▼ Big drop -2946 82 76 ↕C1Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -29 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–82 · Last 3 figs 46 82 76
Jockey Ben Curtis 36% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ 7-for-27 on dirt this meet (26%) ★ hotAlso today · Trainer R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1 +2 more4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSSwitches from turf to dirt. Purse drops from $750,000 to $165,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (6w; no menace), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/9 KD 1m T JuvMile Stk 11th/12 -13L 46 22-1 b 6w;no menace 7/26 ELP 6f D MSW Won/9 82 2.1-1 b 3w;left ld;repelld foe 6/27 CD 6f D MSW 2nd/7 -4½L 76 4.8-1 b Ins;4p5/16;ran on 4Spicy TacoLSP. Lopez · L. RamirezLopez · RamirezC48 8330-1Fair 20-14%
—48 83CLSCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 48 83
LSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSStretches out from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs. Runs for $165,000 after a $100,000 race last out.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Broke out; bumped st), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/10 GP 6f D sInSumatinB100k 6th/6 -21L 48 9.9-1 b Broke out; bumped st 6/20 GP 4½f D sMdSpWt Won/7 by 3½ 83 6.3-1 b Brk back;st'd7/16;4w 5Merit BadgeD. Sheehy · A. MeahSheehy · MeahB83 76 71▲▲+1010-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best83 76 71BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 83 76 71
Jockey Danny Sheehy 22% career 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Anna M Meah 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTFigures are climbing: 71, 76, 83 over its last three. Winner of a 9-horse race at CBY last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 21 (5F in 1:00.00), 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 CBY 6f D sNthLtsFut80k Won/9 83 0.5-1 Ins bid 1/2; driving 8/5 IND 5f D MSW Won/11 76 2.1-1 3p;rally5/16;mild drv 7/9 ELP 5½f D MSW 3rd/9 -3L 71 25-1 Track 5w;best of rest 6Sargent BilkoM. Franco · E. KenneallyFranco · KenneallyC82 71 59▲▲+14↕@trip 5920-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +1482 71 59 ↕@trip 59CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–82 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 71 59
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Eddie Kenneally 35% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #2 of 30 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Coast Highway 10-1, R4: High Camp 8-1 +5 moreWON LASTHas moved up each time out, 59 to 71 to 82. Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 KEE 6f D Alw s Won/6 82 5.1-1 b 2w;dueld;led;held firm 9/11 CD 6f D Alw n2l 2nd/5 -3½L 71 2.0-1 b Awkward brk;pull insd 8/9 ELP 7f D JuvenileB250k 6th/7 -10L 59 4.7-1 b Bmp st;tug 3p btw;wknd 7Fusta▼B. Hernandez Jr. · W. CowansHernandez Jr. · CowansC8012-1Fair 10-18%
—80C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 863Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 80
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer William D Cowans 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hotWON LASTNew trainer: Greg Foley had it last time, William D Cowans now. Best recent figure of 80 sits right around the 86 par.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 10 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 CD 6f D MCL 150kc Won/9 by 2 80 2.8-1 Track 4p;rally;up 1/16 8Mission Integrity▲J. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottB92 589-2Fair 8-111%
—92 58B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 86Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 92 58
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 86Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-27 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Admiral Dennis 5-1, R2: Groves 4-1, R7: Foxiest 15-1, R9: Earth Song 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Groves 4-1WON LASTTops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 85 for the next best. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 94).
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)SHARP LAST OUT Ins; drew off; driving last out, and it did it the right way.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoRECORD Junior Alvarado from post 8 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 21 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 BEL 6f D MSW Won/7 92 15-1 b Ins;drew off;driving 8/29 SAR 6f D MSW 5th/7 -11L 58 7.5-1 b Chased 5-3w; tired 9Take a PictureJ. Rosario · R. BrynerRosario · BrynerB85 7510-1Fair 15-17%
—85 75BCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 85 75
Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Raymond C Bryner 0-for-2 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Drake's Passage 30-1, R7: Badittude 30-1, R9: He Is No Lie 15-1 · Trainer R3: That's Fire 30-160D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTRaymond C Bryner takes over the training from Peter Miller. Off 69 days since the last start.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.40 on Oct 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD Joel Rosario from post 9 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 16 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/22 DMR 1m D MSW Won/5 85 2.3-1 Bp st;4w;bid3-2w;drftd 7/11 ELP 5½f D MSW 3rd/8 -2½L 75 18-1 Track 2p;duel show;mss 10DormieL. Saez · C. BlockSaez · BlockC82 77 74▲+610-1Fair 10-110%
▲ Up +6 · career best82 77 74C2Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 82 77 74
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Chris Block 36% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Azam 15-1, R2: Holiday Pi 15-1, R3: Observed 8-1, R4: Global Aviator 5-1 +4 more3rd of 9 at 5F on Sep 15, in 1:01.60. Goes 7 furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoRECORD Luis Saez from post 10 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 48 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 6f D Alw n2l 2nd/6 -4L 82 9.2-1 Coaxed 4p; ran on 8/15 PRM 6f D PrmFrshmnB100k 2nd/9 -2½L 77 2.0-1 2w tn;ang in late;gain 6/21 HAW 4½f D MSW Won/5 74 3.9-1 Lunge;vied ins;driving 11MccoyJ. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · DevauxA857-2Fair 6-115%
—85ACard model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 85
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 11-for-67 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Cherie Devaux 2-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Special Session 12-1, R2: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R3: Majik Mooney 10-1, R4: Cornwall Boss 3-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R2: Maitresse 10-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTThe Oct 13 work, 4F in :47.60, was the best time at that distance that morning. Won last out in a 13-horse maiden special weight race at PRX.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Oct 13 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dRECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 11 here: 3 wins, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 PRX 6½f D MSW Won/13 85 1.6-1 Bid; held rival safe
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
KEENELAND · RACE 5
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $100,000
Claiming $100,000, for 2-year-olds, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Bet On Silver (early speed, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 46 · 82 · 76. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #10 Dormie at 10-1. Use #7 Fusta in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #11 MCCOY (7-2) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #11 MCCOY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 17.2%).
- #1 YACHT MASTER — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 15.5%).
- #8 MISSION INTEGRITY — our #10 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 14.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 BET ON SILVER (12-1) — our fair 7.3% is above the morning line's 6.0%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (36%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Mission Integrity; pressure from #3 Bet On Silver, #6 Sargent Bilko; the shape helps #1 Yacht Master, #2 Kingside, #5 Merit Badge; and works against #3 Bet On Silver, #8 Mission Integrity.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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