R9 Keeneland · B.C. Juvnle Stakes (G1)

4:55 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $2,000,000 · 8 runners4:55 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $2000K · B.C. Juvnle Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1DamavandL. Saez · T. PletcherSaez · PletcherC87 78@trip 8720-1Fair 30-13%—87 78@trip 87C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 78
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 30 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Azam 15-1, R2: Holiday Pi 15-1, R3: Observed 8-1, R4: Global Aviator 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R7: Badittude 30-1, R7: Life Changing 30-1, this race: American History 9-2, R10: Liam's Law 20-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTJky 18/66 from post 1
Last start was a win, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at KEE at 2.7-1. Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes gr1.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Luis Saez from post 1 here: 18 wins, 36 top-3 in 66 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KEE 1 1/16 D MSW Won/11 by hd 87 2.7-1 Bmp;3w3/4;bid 2nd;duel
9/7 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/12 -8L 78 3.4-1 4w pursuit; improved
2Gaudreau▲M. Franco · C. BrownFranco · BrownA98 908-1Fair 10-18%—98 90A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 98 90
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Coast Highway 10-1, R4: High Camp 8-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R8: Domestic Agenda 8-1
Runs for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. Has run 98 against a 90 par for the class.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 2nd/6 -½L 98 2.8-1 Dueled 3-2w; ran on
8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW Won/8 90 2.4-1 Out;3-2p;lead3/16;held
3Salahudin▲T. Gaffalione · B. BaffertGaffalione · BaffertB96 92 78▲▲+116-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best96 92 78B▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 903
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 96 92 78
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 16-for-60 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Niosa 2-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R4: Ghazaaly 6-1 +6 more · Trainer R4: Campobasso 2-1, R5: Yacht Master 4-1, R7: Miss Monica 5-2, this race: Hughes 1-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Figures are climbing: 78, 92, 96 over its last three. Winner of a 7-horse race at CD last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30d
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 3 here: 11 wins, 29 top-3 in 56 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 CD 1m D Iroquois G3 Won/7 96 1.0-1 b Blew st;4w;6p1/4;duel
8/9 ELP 7f D JuvenileB250k Won/7 92 1.3-1 b Vied 3-2wd;drove clear
7/17 ELP 6½f D MSW Won/9 78 0.6-1 b 4-3p;ask 3/8;drove clr
4Earth Song▲J. Alvarado · J. DelgadoAlvarado · DelgadoC94 8320-1Fair 30-13%—94 83C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 94 83
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-27 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jorge Delgado 37% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Admiral Dennis 5-1, R2: Groves 4-1, R5: Mission Integrity 9-2, R7: Foxiest 15-1 +1 more
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Runs for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. Best recent figure of 94 sits right around the 90 par.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
TROUBLED TRIP Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 4th/6 -4L 94 24-1 Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte
9/7 MTH 6f D MSW Won/3 83 0.9-1 Step slow; drew off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	KEE	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/11 by hd	87	2.7-1		Bmp;3w3/4;bid 2nd;duel
9/7	SAR	6f D	MSW	4th/12 -8L	78	3.4-1		4w pursuit; improved

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Champagn G1	2nd/6 -½L	98	2.8-1		Dueled 3-2w; ran on
8/8	SAR	6½f D	MSW	Won/8	90	2.4-1		Out;3-2p;lead3/16;held

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Iroquois G3	Won/7	96	1.0-1	b	Blew st;4w;6p1/4;duel
8/9	ELP	7f D	JuvenileB250k	Won/7	92	1.3-1	b	Vied 3-2wd;drove clear
7/17	ELP	6½f D	MSW	Won/9	78	0.6-1	b	4-3p;ask 3/8;drove clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Champagn G1	4th/6 -4L	94	24-1		Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte
9/7	MTH	6f D	MSW	Won/3	83	0.9-1		Step slow; drew off

5Hughes▲F. Prat · B. BaffertPrat · BaffertA108 100 100▲▲+12@trip 1081-1Fair 7-541%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best108 100 100@trip 108A▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 901

Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 108 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 108 100 100

▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 90

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 10-for-20 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R2: Maitresse 10-1, R3: Maxify 8-1, R4: Campobasso 2-1 +6 more · Trainer R4: Campobasso 2-1, R5: Yacht Master 4-1, R7: Miss Monica 5-2, this race: Salahudin 6-1

WON LAST

Owns the highest recent figure here at 108. Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at SA.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 5d ago

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 5 here: 10 wins, 21 top-3 in 47 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	1 1/16 D	AmPharoh G1	Won/6	108	0.3-1	b	Ins;bid3-2wd;handily
9/6	DMR	7f D	DMrFut G1	Won/5	100	0.2-1	b	Outsd;3deep5/16;cleard
8/8	DMR	6f D	BestPal G3	Won/5	100	1.5-1	b	Vied ins;powered away

6American History▲J. Velazquez · T. PletcherVelazquez · PletcherB93 83@trip 939-2Fair 8-111%—93 83@trip 93B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 83
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 30 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R3: Oscar Cheer 12-1, R6: Crownbreaker 20-1, R6: Adonius 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Badittude 30-1, R7: Life Changing 30-1, this race: Damavand 20-1, R10: Liam's Law 20-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTJky 10/38 from post 6
Won last out in a 6-horse race at KEE. The Oct 14 work, 4F in :47.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 14 (4F in :47.00), 2 works in 30d
RECORD J R Velazquez from post 6 here: 10 wins, 17 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 Won/6 by 3½ 93 5.0-1 Off slow;4p;left ld;up
8/22 SAR 6½f D MSW Won/9 83 9.6-1 5p trn;4p1/4;rally;clr
7Coach Pope▲J. Ortiz · K. McPeekOrtiz · McPeekA92 99 89►@trip 924-1Fair 5-116%► Steady92 99 89@trip 92A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 902
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 92 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 99 89
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 11-for-67 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Special Session 12-1, R2: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R3: Majik Mooney 10-1, R4: Cornwall Boss 3-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R3: Real Goodbar 9-2
Purse goes from $650,000 to $2,000,000, a step up. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Sep 4 (:58.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.00 on Sep 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 7 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 34 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 2nd/6 92 0.7-1 2w;long duel;brsh;cght
9/12 CD 1m D MSW Won/12 99 0.4-1 Took over;cruised away
8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW 2nd/8 -1½L 89 13-1 Ins;ask3p1/4;chsd;gain

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	1 1/16 D	BrdrsFut G1	Won/6 by 3½	93	5.0-1		Off slow;4p;left ld;up
8/22	SAR	6½f D	MSW	Won/9	83	9.6-1		5p trn;4p1/4;rally;clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1 1/16 D	BrdrsFut G1	2nd/6	92	0.7-1	2w;long duel;brsh;cght
9/12	CD	1m D	MSW	Won/12	99	0.4-1	Took over;cruised away
8/8	SAR	6½f D	MSW	2nd/8 -1½L	89	13-1	Ins;ask3p1/4;chsd;gain

8He Is No Lie▲▲LSJ. Rosario · D. O'NeillRosario · O'NeillB95 78 92▲▲+1015-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best95 78 92B▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 78 92

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Drake's Passage 30-1, R5: Take A Picture 10-1, R7: Badittude 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Off 48 days since the last start. 3rd of 8 at 3F on Oct 21, in :35.80.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 9d back)

RECORD Joel Rosario from post 8 here: 1 win, 3 top-3 in 18 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Iroquois G3	2nd/7 -½L	95	4.7-1	2w;btw;duel;grudgingly
8/8	DMR	6f D	BestPal G3	4th/5 -4½L	78	2.3-1	Stumbled badly; 4wide
6/28	CD	6f D	BshfdMnr Stk	2nd/8	92	4.6-1	Dueld ins;cleard;naild

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 9

UPCOMING

B.C. Juvnle Stakes (G1)

Field

8 runners

Purse

$2,000,000

Post

4:55 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#5 · 41%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.79

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #5 Hughes (a presser/stalker, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 108 · 100 · 100. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Coach Pope at 4-1. Use #3 Salahudin in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 HUGHES (1-1) — our number agrees.
#5 HUGHES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (37.4% to their 38.7%).
#7 COACH POPE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.3% to their 15.5%).
#6 AMERICAN HISTORY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 14.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 He Is No Lie; pressure from #2 Gaudreau, #4 Earth Song; and works against #2 Gaudreau, #4 Earth Song, #8 He Is No Lie.

Lead

8He Is No Lie932Gaudreau904Earth Song89

Press

5Hughes897Coach Pope873Salahudin83

Stalk

1Damavand806American History77

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

He Is No Lie

Gaudreau

Earth Song

Hughes

Coach Pope

Salahudin

Damavand

American History

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Salahudin

He Is No Lie

Hughes

American History

Coach Pope

Damavand

Gaudreau

Earth Song

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