R8 Keeneland · B.C. Jv Fl Turf Stakes (G1)

4:15 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $1,000,000 · 17 runners4:15 PM · 1m Turf · 17 runners

Upcoming $1000K · B.C. Jv Fl Turf Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Green EmpressD. McMonagle · J. O'BrienMcMonagle · O'Brien?10-1Fair 15-16%——?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R10: Folsom Blues 7-2 · Trainer this race: Alwaysanangel 15-1, R10: Folsom Blues 7-2
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 12-horse race at LCH. Purse goes from $450,350 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 1m T Qtr Mrcl Bu G1 Won/12 — —
9/13 CGH 7f T Myglr Stud G1 2nd/6 — 3.0-1
8/22 CGH 7f T Alph Cntur G2 Won/5 — 2.8-1
2Go For Launch▲LSP. Moran · K. AttardMoran · AttardA89 89 84►30-1Fair 20-14%► Steady89 89 84A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87LS
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 89 89 84
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87LS
Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career
Also today · Trainer this race: De La Renta 30-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Runs for $1,000,000 after a $250,000 race last out. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (5F in :59.80), 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 WO 5f T Algnquin G3 2nd/6 89 0.6-1 L Brk in;lead1/8;caught
8/26 SAR 5½f T BltnLndng Stk Won/8 89 10-1 Ins;ask2p1/4;rally;clr
7/25 WO 5f T MSW Won/7 84 1.1-1 Shook clear;held sway
3CurracloeB. Coen · J. MurtaghCoen · Murtagh?12-1Fair 30-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #15 · Tier ?
Jockey Ben Coen 14% career · Trainer John P Murtagh 14% career
WON LAST
John P Murtagh takes over the training from Jp *murtagh. Winner of an 8-horse race at CGH last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CGH 7f T Drly Flls S G3 Won/8 — 1.6-1
9/1 GOW 7f T MSW Won/16 — 22-1
4Serenas GhostL. Saez · J. SharpSaez · SharpC84 68@trip 6820-1Fair 20-14%—84 68@trip 68C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 68
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 3-for-32 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 4-for-12 on turf this meet (33%), #1 of 13 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Azam 15-1, R2: Holiday Pi 15-1, R3: Observed 8-1, R4: Global Aviator 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Majik Mooney 10-1
WON LASTJky 17/70 from post 4
Won last out in an 11-horse race at KEE. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $400,000 race last out.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
RECORD Luis Saez from post 4 here: 17 wins, 31 top-3 in 70 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 KEE 1 1/16 T Jessamn G2 Won/11 by 1 84 23-1 Ins;rail bid 1/16;edge
9/11 IND 1m T MSW Won/9 68 13-1 Rail;bid1/8;clear;drvg

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	1m T	Qtr Mrcl Bu G1	Won/12	—	—
9/13	CGH	7f T	Myglr Stud G1	2nd/6	—	3.0-1
8/22	CGH	7f T	Alph Cntur G2	Won/5	—	2.8-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	5f T	Algnquin G3	2nd/6	89	0.6-1	L	Brk in;lead1/8;caught
8/26	SAR	5½f T	BltnLndng Stk	Won/8	89	10-1		Ins;ask2p1/4;rally;clr
7/25	WO	5f T	MSW	Won/7	84	1.1-1		Shook clear;held sway

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CGH	7f T	Drly Flls S G3	Won/8	—	1.6-1
9/1	GOW	7f T	MSW	Won/16	—	22-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	1 1/16 T	Jessamn G2	Won/11 by 1	84	23-1		Ins;rail bid 1/16;edge
9/11	IND	1m T	MSW	Won/9	68	13-1		Rail;bid1/8;clear;drvg

5De La Renta▲K. Kimura · K. AttardKimura · AttardA92 84 85▲▲+8@trip 9230-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best92 84 85@trip 92A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 873

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 92 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 84 85

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 87

Jockey Kazushi Kimura 32% career · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Big Apple Patrick 20-1 · Trainer this race: Go For Launch 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 92. Off 48 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Insd; angle7w; held 2nd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.20 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	Natalma G1	2nd/11 -2½L	92	6.5-1	Insd;angle7w;held 2nd
8/15	WO	6½f T	SoarFree Stk	Won/6 by 2	84	1.8-1	Determinendly;up wire
7/19	WO	6f D	MSW	Won/11	85	1.9-1	Held well;kept to task

6AlwaysanangelO. Murphy · J. O'BrienMurphy · O'Brien?15-1Fair 20-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Jockey Oisin Murphy 24% career · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R6: Moonrise 12-1, R10: Sale Shark 30-1 · Trainer this race: Green Empress 10-1, R10: Folsom Blues 7-2
New trainer: Joseph P *o'brien had it last time, Joseph Patrick O'Brien now. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Sc G1 3rd/6 — 7.5-1
8/14 CRK 7f T Irsh Stlln54k Won/9 — 2.5-1
7/10 NKT 6f T Duchss Of C G2 3rd/8 — 14-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	NKT	6f T	Tttrslls Sc G1	3rd/6	—	7.5-1
8/14	CRK	7f T	Irsh Stlln54k	Won/9	—	2.5-1
7/10	NKT	6f T	Duchss Of C G2	3rd/8	—	14-1

7VantaU. Rispoli · J. MullinsRispoli · MullinsB84 77 80▲+6@trip 8420-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +6 · career best84 77 80@trip 84B1

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 77 80

Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Jeff Mullins 34% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Up Before The Dawn 6-1, R4: Imagine John 20-1

WON LAST

Runs for $1,000,000 after a $100,000 race last out. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse race at SA.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	SA	1m T	SurfrGrl G3	Won/7 by 2	84	0.2-1	Ins-2w turns;best late
9/6	DMR	1m T	JuvFlTrf Stk	Won/9 by 2	77	1.0-1	Off slw;angl out;surge
7/31	DMR	5f T	MSW	Won/9 by 2	80	2.9-1	Lack rm turn;shftd out

8Citrus SpringsM. Franco · M. ClementFranco · ClementB83@trip 8315-1Fair 15-16%—83@trip 83B2
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 1-for-1 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Coast Highway 10-1, R4: High Camp 8-1 +5 more · Trainer R6: Brickyard Belle 3-1, R10: Oscar 15-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Changes barns, from Joseph Patrick O'Brien to Miguel Clement. Carries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Prssd 2w; 4-5w; held out), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 14 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 KD 1m T JuvFillis Stk Won/9 by hd 83 3.7-1 b Prssd 2w;4-5w;held out
8/12 GOW 7f T MSW Won/16 — 5.5-1
7/23 LEP 7f T MSW 2nd/12 — 3.0-1
9Sun GoddessR. Moore · A. O'BrienMoore · O'Brien?6-5Fair 7-223%——?
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Ryan L Moore 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R10: Great Barrier Reef 4-1 · Trainer R10: Florida Bay 20-1, R10: Haffner 8-1, R10: Man's Best Friend 15-1, R10: Great Barrier Reef 4-1
WON LAST
Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Sheds 6 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 NKT 6f T Tttrslls Sc G1 Won/6 — 0.8-1
9/13 CGH 7f T Myglr Stud G1 Won/6 — 0.6-1
8/20 YOR 6f T Clm 0k Won/20 — 1.0-1
10AmusinglyC. Keane · F. GraffardKeane · Graffard?7-2Fair 7-112%——?
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Colin T Keane 14% career · Trainer Francis - Henri Graffard 14% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R10: Man's Best Friend 15-1 · Trainer R6: Primetime Emmy 15-1
WON LAST
Jockey switch: C T *keane last out, Colin T Keane today. Won last out in a 10-horse race at LCH.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qtr Jn-luc G1 Won/10 — —
9/6 LCH 1m T Qatar d'uml G2 2nd/8 — —
6/20 CMP 6.95909f T MSW Won/10 — —
11Scommessa SicuraB. Loughnane · A. BaldingLoughnane · Balding?30-1Fair 30-13%——?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Billy Loughnane 14% career · Trainer Andrew Balding 14% career
Also today · Trainer R6: Moonrise 12-1
New trainer: Andrew *balding had it last time, Andrew Balding now. Carries 122 pounds, 6 less than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 NKT 1m T Bt365 Flls G1 5th/8 — 28-1
9/10 DON 1m T Btfrd My Hl G2 2nd/11 — 4.0-1
8/12 SLB 1m T Brtsh Stlln73k 2nd/6 — 0.7-1
12Domestic Agenda▲F. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownA90 838-1Fair 12-18%—90 83A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 90 83
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career 2-for-10 on turf this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R2: Maitresse 10-1, R3: Maxify 8-1, R4: Campobasso 2-1 +6 more · Trainer R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R9: Gaudreau 8-1
WON LAST
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. Purse goes from $250,000 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 12 here: 1 win, 4 top-3 in 17 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1 1/16 T MsGrillo G2 Won/6 90 1.0-1 3-4p;rally;up3/16;clr
9/4 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW Won/8 by 2½ 83 1.7-1 2w 1/4p; up last jumps

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1m T	JuvFillis Stk	Won/9 by hd	83	3.7-1	b	Prssd 2w;4-5w;held out
8/12	GOW	7f T	MSW	Won/16	—	5.5-1
7/23	LEP	7f T	MSW	2nd/12	—	3.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	NKT	6f T	Tttrslls Sc G1	Won/6	—	0.8-1
9/13	CGH	7f T	Myglr Stud G1	Won/6	—	0.6-1
8/20	YOR	6f T	Clm 0k	Won/20	—	1.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	6.95909f T	Qtr Jn-luc G1	Won/10	—	—
9/6	LCH	1m T	Qatar d'uml G2	2nd/8	—	—
6/20	CMP	6.95909f T	MSW	Won/10	—	—

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/9	NKT	1m T	Bt365 Flls G1	5th/8	—	28-1
9/10	DON	1m T	Btfrd My Hl G2	2nd/11	—	4.0-1
8/12	SLB	1m T	Brtsh Stlln73k	2nd/6	—	0.7-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 T	MsGrillo G2	Won/6	90	1.0-1		3-4p;rally;up3/16;clr
9/4	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/8 by 2½	83	1.7-1		2w 1/4p; up last jumps

13Seneca ParkB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · StewartB82 84 87▼-430-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -482 84 87B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 82 84 87

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 1-for-15 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Send Cash 15-1, R5: Fusta 12-1, R10: How's Al Today 3-1 · Trainer R2: At Full Sail 15-1

An 87 top number against a 87 par, so it fits the level. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 90).

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/2	KEE	1 1/16 T	Jessamn G2	2nd/11	82	2.9-1	Ins;collrd 2w1/16;bstd
8/30	KD	6½f T	Untapable Stk	Won/11 by nk	84	1.9-1	Bid 3w;late surge;up
8/7	ELP	5½f T	MSW	Won/11	87	3.0-1	Ins;drw off;handy late

14Ballinea StarT. Gaffalione · A. DeGaffalione · De?30-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #16 · Tier ?
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 6-for-30 on turf this meet (20%), #3 of 18 · Trainer Aguiar Robson De
Also today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Niosa 2-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R4: Ghazaaly 6-1 +6 more · Trainer R6: Force Noir 8-1
A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, a mile today. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 CGH 7f T Clm 0k 3rd/18 — 33-1
9/13 CGH 7f T Myglr Stud G1 4th/6 — 80-1
6/27 CGH 6.3f T Jbl Al Rccu G3 Won/5 — 16-1
15Silent BeautyD. Egan · D. PhilippartEgan · Philippart?30-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #17 · Tier ?
Jockey David Egan 27% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer De Foy Kevin Philippart
Also today · Jockey R3: Nuit D'Eclair 6-1, R6: Force Noir 8-1, R10: Pikachu 30-1 · Trainer R3: Nuit D'Eclair 6-1, R6: Crownbreaker 20-1
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 5-horse race at AYR at 0.7-1. Purse goes from $97,457 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 AYR 6f T Ldbrks Nw C G3 Won/5 — 0.7-1
8/31 RIP 6f T Brtsh Stlln73k Won/7 — 1.9-1
6/19 ASC 6f T Albany S. G3 23th/25 — 11-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	CGH	7f T	Clm 0k	3rd/18	—	33-1
9/13	CGH	7f T	Myglr Stud G1	4th/6	—	80-1
6/27	CGH	6.3f T	Jbl Al Rccu G3	Won/5	—	16-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/19	AYR	6f T	Ldbrks Nw C G3	Won/5	—	0.7-1
8/31	RIP	6f T	Brtsh Stlln73k	Won/7	—	1.9-1
6/19	ASC	6f T	Albany S. G3	23th/25	—	11-1

16Luminous BeautyT. Gaffalione · J. AntonucciGaffalione · AntonucciC81 84 79▲▲+14↕30-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +1481 84 79 ↕C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–84 · Last 3 figs 81 84 79

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 6-for-30 on turf this meet (20%), #3 of 18 · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Niosa 2-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R4: Ghazaaly 6-1 +6 more · Trainer R4: Imagine John 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 24 (:46.60), a sign it is training forwardly. 2nd of 12 at 5F on Aug 16, in 1:00.40.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (4F in :46.60), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	Futurity G3	3rd/7 -9L	81	3.0-1	Chased 2p; mild kick
8/30	KD	6½f T	Untapable Stk	2nd/11	84	7.7-1	Pressed;game;bested
8/2	SAR	6½f D	Adirondk G3	2nd/9	79	13-1	2p turn;3p1/4;no match

17Quibbler▼J. Torres · R. MottTorres · MottC80 72@trip 7230-1Fair 50-12%—80 72@trip 72C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 72
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 1-for-12 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Mid American 12-1, R4: Bob's Carrot 15-1 · Trainer R3: Roscoe Goose 6-1, R10: How's Al Today 3-1
Purse goes from $400,000 to $1,000,000, a step up. Best recent figure of 80 sits right around the 87 par.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 KEE 1 1/16 T Jessamn G2 4th/11 -3L 80 13-1 2w;5p2nd;stayed mildly
8/30 KD 1m T MSW Won/12 by hd 72 23-1 3w;tippd out;kickd clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	1 1/16 T	Jessamn G2	4th/11 -3L	80	13-1		2w;5p2nd;stayed mildly
8/30	KD	1m T	MSW	Won/12 by hd	72	23-1		3w;tippd out;kickd clr

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 8

UPCOMING

B.C. Jv Fl Turf Stakes (G1)

Field

17 runners

Purse

$1,000,000

Post

4:15 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 9%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 92.87

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Vanta (a closer, M/L 20-1). Recent figures: 84 · 77 · 80. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #8 Citrus Springs at 15-1. Use #5 De La Renta in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 SUN GODDESS (6-5) — our number has it ranked #7.
#9 SUN GODDESS — our #7 number, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 31.7%).
#10 AMUSINGLY — our #9 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 15.5%).
#12 DOMESTIC AGENDA — our #6 number, a price play — we're at 7.8%, the board 7.7%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 VANTA (20-1) — our fair 4.9% is above the morning line's 3.3%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (37%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #16 Luminous Beauty; pressure from #8 Citrus Springs, #2 Go For Launch; the shape helps #2 Go For Launch, #4 Serenas Ghost, #5 De La Renta; and works against #1 Green Empress, #3 Curracloe, #6 Alwaysanangel.

Lead

16Luminous Beauty998Citrus Springs92

Press

2Go For Launch945De La Renta9113Seneca Park9012Domestic Agenda86

Stalk

4Serenas Ghost84

17Quibbler767Vanta67

No style yet

1Green Empress3Curracloe6Alwaysanangel9Sun Goddess10Amusingly11Scommessa Sicura14Ballinea Star15Silent Beauty

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Luminous Beauty

Go For Launch

Citrus Springs

De La Renta

Seneca Park

Domestic Agenda

Serenas Ghost

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Quibbler

Vanta

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

$3 LATE PICK 3 (RACES 8-9-10) / DAILY DOUBLE

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