R2 Keeneland · Maiden Special Weight

12:30 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $150,000 · 10 runners12:30 PM · 7f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $150K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ohana Lulu▼J. Velazquez · B. WalshVelazquez · WalshA72 73 73►8-1Fair 7-221%► Steady72 73 73A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 851
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 72 73 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ 7-for-27 on dirt this meet (26%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Oscar Cheer 12-1, R6: Crownbreaker 20-1, R6: Adonius 12-1, R7: Rum Twist 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Memory 4-1, this race: Forgive Me 6-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R5: Kingside 9-2 +2 more
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 10/41 from post 1
Freshened 91 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD J R Velazquez from post 1 here: 10 wins, 16 top-3 in 41 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/31 ELP 1 1/16 T MSW 2nd/12 72 3.2-1 4w;bid 4-3w;clrd;drift
7/4 ELP 1m T MSW 2nd/8 -1½L 73 1.3-1 2p;paused 3/16;ran on
5/17 WO 5f D MSW 2nd/6 -3L 73 2.2-1 Miss brk;chased winner
2Golden Reveille▼LSK. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenB4620-1Fair 30-14%—46B▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 85LS
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 46
▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 85LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Keith J Asmussen 34% career ★ 5-for-24 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-48 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Trainer R6: Love A Warrior 30-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Last out was 11th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at KD.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP 3w; swng 7w; tired out last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 19 (5F in 1:01.20), 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/9 KD 6½f T MSW 11th/12 -13L 46 11-1 3w;swng 7w;tired out
3Honor Is MineJ. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · Devaux?9-2Fair 8-111%—Debut?
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 11-for-67 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Cherie Devaux 2-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Special Session 12-1, R3: Majik Mooney 10-1, R4: Cornwall Boss 3-1, R5: McCoy 7-2 +5 more · Trainer this race: Maitresse 10-1, R5: McCoy 7-2
First career start, by Honor A. P. out of Katherine. Debut for a trainer who is 15% with first-timers, over 243 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago
RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 3 here: 10 wins, 27 top-3 in 49 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Honor A. P. out of Katherine (Distorted Humor)
Trainer C. Devaux: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 28% in the money (243 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 15% wins, 29% in the money (231 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 39% in the money (588 starts)
Jockey J. Ortiz in sprints: 83 wins from 413 (20%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 KEE 4f :49.00 breezing 35/92
10/17 KEE 4f :49.40 breezing 22/81
10/10 KEE 4f :48.80 breezing 18/92 from gate
9/29 KEE 4f :48.20 breezing 4/17
9/22 KEE 4f :48.40 breezing 10/19
4Forgive Me▼M. Franco · B. WalshFranco · WalshB686-1Fair 8-111%—68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 85
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 68
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ 7-for-27 on dirt this meet (26%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R3: Coast Highway 10-1, R4: High Camp 8-1, R5: Sargent Bilko 20-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Memory 4-1, this race: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R5: Kingside 9-2 +2 more
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 85 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 CD 6½f D MSW 5th/8 -1½L 68 7.9-1 Pressurd pace ins;fade

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
7/31	ELP	1 1/16 T	MSW	2nd/12	72	3.2-1	4w;bid 4-3w;clrd;drift
7/4	ELP	1m T	MSW	2nd/8 -1½L	73	1.3-1	2p;paused 3/16;ran on
5/17	WO	5f D	MSW	2nd/6 -3L	73	2.2-1	Miss brk;chased winner

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	KD	6½f T	MSW	11th/12 -13L	46	11-1		3w;swng 7w;tired out

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	KEE	4f	:49.00	breezing	35/92
10/17	KEE	4f	:49.40	breezing	22/81
10/10	KEE	4f	:48.80	breezing	18/92	from gate
9/29	KEE	4f	:48.20	breezing	4/17
9/22	KEE	4f	:48.40	breezing	10/19

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	CD	6½f D	MSW	5th/8 -1½L	68	7.9-1		Pressurd pace ins;fade

5At Full SailG. Corrales · D. StewartCorrales · Stewart?15-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?

Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Trainer R8: Seneca Park 30-1

In the morning works, the Sep 25 work, 5F in 1:01.60, was the fastest at that distance that morning. This barn has 100 first-time starters on record and wins 11% of them.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 13 days ago

Last three races

First start. By Constitution out of Sailor's Valentine (Mizzen Mast)

Trainer D. Stewart: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 29% in the money (100 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 9% wins, 27% in the money (91 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 32% in the money (331 starts)

Jockey G. Corrales in sprints: 21 wins from 131 (16%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/17	CD	4f	:48.20	breezing	21/197
10/7	CD	4f	:48.60	breezing	19/51	from gate
9/25	CDT	5f	1:01.60	breezing	1/4	● bullet from gate
9/14	CDT	5f	1:01.40	breezing	1/2	● bullet
9/5	CDT	5f	1:02.60	breezing	3/8	from gate

6Niosa▲T. Gaffalione · P. DamatoGaffalione · DamatoA872-1Fair 4-120%—87A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 852
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 87
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 85
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 16-for-60 on dirt this meet (27%), #2 of 32 · Trainer Philip Damato
Also today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R3: Not For Long 8-1, R4: Ghazaaly 6-1, R5: Kingside 9-2 +6 more
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 76 next best. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at KEE.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 13; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 6 here: 11 wins, 22 top-3 in 65 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 6f D MSW 2nd/12 -2L 87 4.8-1 Ins;3p1/4;held place
7MaitresseF. Prat · C. DevauxPrat · Devaux?10-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 10-for-20 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 32 · Trainer Cherie Devaux 2-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R3: Maxify 8-1, R4: Campobasso 2-1, R5: Yacht Master 4-1 +6 more · Trainer this race: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R5: McCoy 7-2
Jky 10/31 from post 7
No race yet; there is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 10. Debut for this Curlin filly, whose dam is Secret Someone.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (4 works in 30d, last 7d back)
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 7 here: 10 wins, 18 top-3 in 31 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Curlin out of Secret Someone (A.p. Indy)
Trainer C. Devaux: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 28% in the money (243 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 15% wins, 29% in the money (231 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 39% in the money (588 starts)
Jockey F. Prat in sprints: 86 wins from 374 (23%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 KEE 4f :49.80 breezing 58/85
10/17 KEE 4f :49.80 breezing 36/81
10/10 KEE 4f :48.80 breezing 18/92 from gate
10/4 KEE 4f :49.40 breezing 40/70
9/14 ELP 4f :49.60 breezing 11/27
8Holiday PiL. Saez · C. DavisSaez · Davis?15-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Christopher Davis 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Azam 15-1, R3: Observed 8-1, R4: Global Aviator 5-1, R5: Dormie 10-1 +4 more
First-time starter from a barn that wins 10% of the time with them (86 tried). First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 12 works since Jul 11.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Luis Saez from post 8 here: 5 wins, 13 top-3 in 48 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Tacitus out of Holiday Laughter (Harlan's Holiday)
Trainer C. Davis: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 22% in the money (86 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 20% in the money (54 starts) · Maiden special weights: 15% wins, 35% in the money (157 starts)
Jockey L. Saez in sprints: 84 wins from 418 (20%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 TP 4f :48.40 breezing 11/61 from gate
10/14 TP 5f 1:02.20 breezing 1/3 ● bullet
10/2 TP 4f :48.40 breezing 4/39 from gate
9/26 TP 4f :50.40 breezing 87/97
9/20 TP 4f :51.20 breezing 80/88
9Groves▼J. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottA764-1Fair 6-114%—76A▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 853
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-27 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Admiral Dennis 5-1, R5: Mission Integrity 9-2, R7: Foxiest 15-1, R9: Earth Song 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Mission Integrity 9-2
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/15 SAR 6f D MSW 2nd/5 -6L 76 4.2-1 Outside;4path;no match
10Maximum CapitalA. Concepcion · V. OliverConcepcion · Oliver?20-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 3-for-37 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Victoria Oliver 26% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Lincoln's Law 12-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Maxfield out of Capital Lights. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 16).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (4 works in 30d, last 7d back)
Last three races
First start. By Maxfield out of Capital Lights (Lookin at Lucky)
Trainer V. Oliver: 1st-time starters: 1% wins, 15% in the money (96 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 1% wins, 15% in the money (86 starts) · Maiden special weights: 8% wins, 27% in the money (371 starts)
Jockey A. Concepcion in sprints: 42 wins from 305 (14%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 KEE 4f :50.20 breezing 70/85
10/16 KEE 4f :48.00 breezing 8/68 from gate
10/8 KEE 4f :49.40 breezing 13/33
10/1 KEE 4f :49.20 breezing 24/38 from gate
9/23 KEE 4f :47.60 breezing 4/32

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	6f D	MSW	2nd/12 -2L	87	4.8-1		Ins;3p1/4;held place

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	KEE	4f	:49.80	breezing	58/85
10/17	KEE	4f	:49.80	breezing	36/81
10/10	KEE	4f	:48.80	breezing	18/92	from gate
10/4	KEE	4f	:49.40	breezing	40/70
9/14	ELP	4f	:49.60	breezing	11/27

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	TP	4f	:48.40	breezing	11/61	from gate
10/14	TP	5f	1:02.20	breezing	1/3	● bullet
10/2	TP	4f	:48.40	breezing	4/39	from gate
9/26	TP	4f	:50.40	breezing	87/97
9/20	TP	4f	:51.20	breezing	80/88

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	SAR	6f D	MSW	2nd/5 -6L	76	4.2-1		Outside;4path;no match

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	KEE	4f	:50.20	breezing	70/85
10/16	KEE	4f	:48.00	breezing	8/68	from gate
10/8	KEE	4f	:49.40	breezing	13/33
10/1	KEE	4f	:49.20	breezing	24/38	from gate
9/23	KEE	4f	:47.60	breezing	4/32

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$150,000

Post

12:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 21%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.2

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Ohana Lulu (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 72 · 73 · 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Niosa at 2-1. Use #9 Groves in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 NIOSA (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#6 NIOSA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.9% to their 26.0%).
#9 GROVES — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.0% to their 15.6%).
#3 HONOR IS MINE — our #7 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 OHANA LULU (8-1) — our fair 12.2% is above the morning line's 8.7%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (34%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Forgive Me; the shape helps #1 Ohana Lulu, #6 Niosa, #9 Groves; and works against #2 Golden Reveille, #3 Honor Is Mine, #4 Forgive Me.

Lead

4Forgive Me96

Press

none

Stalk

6Niosa949Groves931Ohana Lulu81

none

No style yet

2Golden Reveille813Honor Is Mine5At Full Sail7Maitresse8Holiday Pi10Maximum Capital

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Forgive Me

Niosa

Groves

Ohana Lulu

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ohana Lulu

Golden Reveille

Forgive Me

Groves

Niosa

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