R3 Keeneland · T.B. Aftrc Al Stakes (Listed)

1:05 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $250,000 · 16 runners1:05 PM · 1m Turf · 16 runners

Upcoming $250K · T.B. Aftrc Al Stakes (Listed)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1MaxifyF. Prat · M. McCarthyPrat · McCarthyC78 79@trip 798-1Fair 12-17%—78 79@trip 79C
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 79
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Michael W McCarthy 0-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Emerging Market 6-5, R2: Maitresse 10-1, R4: Campobasso 2-1, R5: Yacht Master 4-1 +6 more
Jky 11/41 from post 1
Purse goes from $100,000 to $250,000, a step up. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d ago
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 1 here: 11 wins, 22 top-3 in 41 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 SA 1m T ZumaBch G3 2nd/4 78 2.3-1 Bid3-2w;led;bpd2x late
9/4 DMR 1m T MSW Won/10 by 1½ 79 14-1 2-4w2nd;rallied widest
2Canada▲J. Castellano · M. CasseCastellano · CasseA87 676-1Fair 10-18%—87 67A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 87 67
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82
Jockey J J Castellano 30% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 4-for-15 on turf this meet (27%), #2 of 13
Also today · Jockey R7: Voyager 12-1 · Trainer R1: Special Session 12-1, this race: Oscar Cheer 12-1, R7: Lexi's Charm 15-1, R7: Voyager 12-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse race at WO. An 87 in its last five clears the 82 par for this level.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Oct 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WO 1 1/16 T rCupSaucerB300k Won/10 87 8.1-1 L Chase turn;drove by1/8
9/6 WO 6½f D MSW 2nd/6 -3L 67 2.2-1 Brk out;rally1/4;up2nd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	1m T	ZumaBch G3	2nd/4	78	2.3-1		Bid3-2w;led;bpd2x late
9/4	DMR	1m T	MSW	Won/10 by 1½	79	14-1		2-4w2nd;rallied widest

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	rCupSaucerB300k	Won/10	87	8.1-1	L	Chase turn;drove by1/8
9/6	WO	6½f D	MSW	2nd/6 -3L	67	2.2-1		Brk out;rally1/4;up2nd

3Real Goodbar▲E. Esquivel · K. McPeekEsquivel · McPeekA87 90 69▲▲+8@trip 699-2Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +887 90 69@trip 69A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 822

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 90 69

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82

Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Trainer R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R9: Coach Pope 4-1

Figure of 90 on the record sits above the 82 par. Beaten ½ length for 3rd in a 10-horse race at KEE.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	1 1/16 T	Bourbon G2	3rd/10 -½L	87	6.8-1	2w;4w1/4;bid1/8;outkck
9/12	CD	1m D	Iroquois G3	4th/7 -3L	90	6.7-1	3w;bid btw;5p1/4;yield
7/10	CNL	1m T	MSW	Won/12	69	4.7-1	Bid2w;clear;mild drive

4Observed▼L. Saez · J. ThomasSaez · ThomasC74 69@trip 748-1Fair 15-17%—74 69@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 69
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 3-for-32 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Jonathan Thomas 36% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Azam 15-1, R2: Holiday Pi 15-1, R4: Global Aviator 5-1, R5: Dormie 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R10: Popcorn 20-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTJky 17/70 from post 4
Runs for $250,000 after a $100,000 race last out. Won last out in an 8-horse race at DMR.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Luis Saez from post 4 here: 17 wins, 31 top-3 in 70 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 DMR 1m T DMRJvTrf G3 Won/8 by 5½ 74 6.7-1 Steady early;ins;2-3wd
8/4 IND 7½f T MSW Won/10 by 2 69 1.6-1 Angld3p1/4;rallied1/8
5Nuit D'eclairD. Egan · D. PhilippartEgan · Philippart?6-1Fair 15-16%——?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #16 · Tier ?
Jockey David Egan 27% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer De Foy Kevin Philippart
Also today · Jockey R6: Force Noir 8-1, R8: Silent Beauty 30-1, R10: Pikachu 30-1 · Trainer R6: Crownbreaker 20-1, R8: Silent Beauty 30-1
Changes barns, from De Foy@ke *philippart to De Foy Kevin Philippart. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/3 SLB 6f T IR Incntv I G3 3rd/11 — 2.0-1
8/8 NKT 7f T Nwslls Prk G3 2nd/7 — 1.5-1
7/25 ASC 6f T Prncss Mrgr G3 4th/11 — 12-1
6Majik Mooney▼J. Ortiz · J. SharpOrtiz · SharpC74 73@trip 7410-1Fair 15-16%—74 73@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 73
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 6-for-35 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 4-for-12 on turf this meet (33%), #1 of 13 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Special Session 12-1, R2: Honor Is Mine 9-2, R4: Cornwall Boss 3-1, R5: McCoy 7-2 +5 more · Trainer R8: Serenas Ghost 20-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 7-horse allowance race at CD at 3.3-1. A step up in company: allowance before, stakes nongraded today.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 6 here: 12 wins, 27 top-3 in 69 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 1m T Alw n2l Won/7 by 2 74 3.3-1 Ins;5pbtw upr;rally;up
9/5 KD 7f T MSW Won/8 by ½ 73 12-1 2-3w;angl in;held well
7Oscar Cheer▲J. Velazquez · M. CasseVelazquez · CasseB86 78@trip 8612-1Fair 20-15%—86 78@trip 86B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 78
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 5-for-33 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 4-for-15 on turf this meet (27%), #2 of 13 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R6: Crownbreaker 20-1, R6: Adonius 12-1, R7: Rum Twist 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Special Session 12-1, this race: Canada 6-1, R7: Lexi's Charm 15-1, R7: Voyager 12-1
WON LAST
Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. Winner of a 12-horse maiden special weight race at KEE last time.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago
RECORD J R Velazquez from post 7 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 38 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 KEE 1m T MSW Won/12 by hd 86 6.0-1 2p;4w1/4;rally;cleared
9/7 KD 6½f T MSW 7th/12 -6¾L 78 22-1 Awk st;coaxed 6-7w 1/8
8Roscoe Goose▲K. Carmouche · R. MottCarmouche · MottA86 836-1Fair 12-17%—86 83A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #11 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 86 83
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82
Jockey K Carmouche 36% career · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Trainer R8: Quibbler 30-1, R10: How's Al Today 3-1
Carries 118 pounds, 4 less than last time. An 86 top number against a 82 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1 1/16 T Pilgrim G2 2nd/11 -1½L 86 7.4-1 3-4p turns;5p1/4;rally
8/16 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 2nd/11 -½L 83 12-1 4-5w uppr; fought game
9Dee's Funny GirlM. Barzalona · D. O'BrienBarzalona · O'Brien?12-1Fair 20-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #13 · Tier ?
Jockey Mickael Barzalona 14% career · Trainer Donnacha O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R6: Primetime Emmy 15-1
Switches from dirt to turf. Donnacha O'Brien takes over the training from Donnacha *o'brien.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 DUD 7f D Irsh Stlln53k 3rd/10 — 5.0-1
8/23 DVL 6.95909f T Sumbe Clvds G2 6th/6 — —
7/25 ASC 6f T Prncss Mrgr G3 2nd/11 — 9.0-1
10Coast Highway▼M. Franco · H. MotionFranco · MotionC73 7510-1Fair 20-15%—73 75C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 73 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Gould's Gold 6-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R4: High Camp 8-1, R5: Sargent Bilko 20-1 +5 more · Trainer R10: Induction 30-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call. Won last out in a 7-horse race at LRL.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped 1/4; 5w; up. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 LRL 1 1/16 T LRLFutrtyB125k Won/7 by hd 73 5.5-1 Bumped 1/4;5w;up
9/4 CNL 5½f T MSW Won/5 by ½ 75 3.3-1 Track;svd gnd;kick clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	DMR	1m T	DMRJvTrf G3	Won/8 by 5½	74	6.7-1		Steady early;ins;2-3wd
8/4	IND	7½f T	MSW	Won/10 by 2	69	1.6-1		Angld3p1/4;rallied1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/3	SLB	6f T	IR Incntv I G3	3rd/11	—	2.0-1
8/8	NKT	7f T	Nwslls Prk G3	2nd/7	—	1.5-1
7/25	ASC	6f T	Prncss Mrgr G3	4th/11	—	12-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	1m T	Alw n2l	Won/7 by 2	74	3.3-1		Ins;5pbtw upr;rally;up
9/5	KD	7f T	MSW	Won/8 by ½	73	12-1		2-3w;angl in;held well

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	KEE	1m T	MSW	Won/12 by hd	86	6.0-1		2p;4w1/4;rally;cleared
9/7	KD	6½f T	MSW	7th/12 -6¾L	78	22-1		Awk st;coaxed 6-7w 1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 T	Pilgrim G2	2nd/11 -1½L	86	7.4-1		3-4p turns;5p1/4;rally
8/16	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	2nd/11 -½L	83	12-1		4-5w uppr; fought game

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/2	DUD	7f D	Irsh Stlln53k	3rd/10	—	5.0-1
8/23	DVL	6.95909f T	Sumbe Clvds G2	6th/6	—	—
7/25	ASC	6f T	Prncss Mrgr G3	2nd/11	—	9.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	LRLFutrtyB125k	Won/7 by hd	73	5.5-1		Bumped 1/4;5w;up
9/4	CNL	5½f T	MSW	Won/5 by ½	75	3.3-1		Track;svd gnd;kick clr

11Admiral's Order▲LSL. MacHado · B. ColebrookMacHado · ColebrookC85 82 87►≡15-1Fair 20-14%► Steady85 82 87 ≡C▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 82LS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–87 · Last 3 figs 85 82 87

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 82LS

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Luan Machado 35% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Ben Colebrook 30% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Worked 4F in :48.20 on Aug 16, 2nd of 7 at the distance. Figure of 87 on the record sits above the 82 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/10	KEE	1 1/16 T	Alw n2l	2nd/5	85	5.2-1	2w;led 4p upr;nailed
9/12	CD	1m D	Iroquois G3	7th/7 -7L	82	26-1	Chased inside; faded
8/29	KD	6½f T	JuvSprnt Stk	5th/11 -4¾L	87	8.6-1	Off slow;mild late bid

12Mid American▲J. Torres · J. DivitoTorres · DivitoB84 94 82▲+6↕12-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +684 94 82 ↕B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 823

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–94 · Last 3 figs 84 94 82

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82

Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 1-for-12 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer James P Divito 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Bob's Carrot 15-1, R8: Quibbler 30-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 13 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 94, with 90 next best.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3p; 5w1/4; flattened btw. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 13 (4F in :47.40), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	1 1/16 T	Bourbon G2	5th/10 -1½L	84	9.1-1	3p;5w1/4;flattened btw
8/29	KD	6½f T	JuvSprnt Stk	Won/11	94	5.3-1	2w-ins;responded;held
8/9	ELP	5½f T	MSW	Won/12 by hd	82	7.6-1	Ins;3w3/16;kickd clear

13Not For Long▼T. Gaffalione · B. WalshGaffalione · WalshC778-1Fair 15-16%—77C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 77
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 6-for-30 on turf this meet (20%), #3 of 18 · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 4-for-22 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Niosa 2-1, R4: Ghazaaly 6-1, R5: Kingside 9-2 +6 more · Trainer R1: Memory 4-1, R2: Ohana Lulu 8-1, R2: Forgive Me 6-1, R5: Kingside 9-2 +2 more
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTJky 0/19 from post 13
Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time. 2nd of 28 at 4F on Sep 8, in :48.60.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione has never won from post 13 here (1 top-3 in 19 rides) · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/17 CD 1 1/16 T MSW Won/8 by 1½ 77 5.3-1 6 wide rally; in time
14That's Fire▼A. Espinoza · R. BrynerEspinoza · BrynerC73 71 69▲▲+17↕@trip 7330-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best73 71 69 ↕@trip 73C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 28–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 71 69
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Assael Espinoza 35% career · Trainer Raymond C Bryner
Also today · Trainer R5: Take A Picture 10-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Sheds 4 pounds from its last start. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Sep 23, in :37.80.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 23; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 1m T Alw n2l 3rd/7 by hd 73 13-1 b 2w;bid btw;duel;outkck
9/3 KD 1m T MSW Won/10 71 7.1-1 b 3-4w;duel;won nod
8/8 ELP 1m T Moc50000 3rd/10 -1½L 69 17-1 b Ins;headd 3/16;outkckd
15Okarito▼R. Bejarano · E. HartyBejarano · HartyC74 65@trip 7430-1Fair 50-12%—74 65@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 65
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey R Bejarano 34% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Eoin Harty 34% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and stakes nongraded now. Best recent figure is 74, well under the 82 par for this level.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 6d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 CD 1m T MSW Won/12 by 2 74 13-1 b Ins;2-3p;7p upr;rally
8/21 ELP 6f D MSW 6th/12 -11L 65 16-1 6p into lane;improved
16Up Before the Dawn▲U. Rispoli · K. DannerRispoli · DannerB82 75@trip 826-1Fair 7-113%—82 75@trip 82B▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 821
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 75
▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82
Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Imagine John 20-1, R8: Vanta 20-1 · Trainer R10: Agate 10-1
Off 53 days since the last start. Worked 5F in 1:01.40 on Oct 22, 3rd of 7 at the distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 2-3w; tip 6-7w1/8; missd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 KD 1m T JuvFillis Stk 2nd/9 -2½L 82 3.5-1 2-3w;tip 6-7w1/8;missd
7/18 ELP 1m T MSW Won/10 by 1 75 3.8-1 Stdy;4-5p2nd;drft;clrd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	CD	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/8 by 1½	77	5.3-1		6 wide rally; in time

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	1m T	Alw n2l	3rd/7 by hd	73	13-1	b	2w;bid btw;duel;outkck
9/3	KD	1m T	MSW	Won/10	71	7.1-1	b	3-4w;duel;won nod
8/8	ELP	1m T	Moc50000	3rd/10 -1½L	69	17-1	b	Ins;headd 3/16;outkckd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	CD	1m T	MSW	Won/12 by 2	74	13-1	b	Ins;2-3p;7p upr;rally
8/21	ELP	6f D	MSW	6th/12 -11L	65	16-1		6p into lane;improved

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1m T	JuvFillis Stk	2nd/9 -2½L	82	3.5-1		2-3w;tip 6-7w1/8;missd
7/18	ELP	1m T	MSW	Won/10 by 1	75	3.8-1		Stdy;4-5p2nd;drft;clrd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #11, #14.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 3

UPCOMING

T.B. Aftrc Al Stakes (Listed)

Field

16 runners

Purse

$250,000

Post

1:05 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#16 · 13%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 92.87

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #16 Up Before The Dawn (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 82 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Real Goodbar at 9-2. Use #12 Mid American in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 REAL GOODBAR (9-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#3 REAL GOODBAR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (11.1% to their 11.2%).
#16 UP BEFORE THE DAWN — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 9.9%, the board 8.8%.
#2 CANADA — our #4 number, a price play — we're at 8.7%, the board 8.8%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #11 Admiral's Order; pressure from #3 Real Goodbar, #14 That's Fire.

Lead

none

Press

11Admiral's Order933Real Goodbar8514That's Fire84

Stalk

7Oscar Cheer922Canada8816Up Before The Dawn864Observed8212Mid American8210Coast Highway798Roscoe Goose781Maxify71

6Majik Mooney8015Okarito7913Not For Long66

No style yet

5Nuit D'Eclair9Dee's Funny Girl

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Admiral's Order

Oscar Cheer

Canada

Up Before The Dawn

Real Goodbar

That's Fire

Observed

Mid American

Coast Highway

Roscoe Goose

Maxify

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Majik Mooney

Not For Long

Okarito

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5) / DAILY DOUBLE

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BET OPTIONS

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Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.