Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.
● Live race intelligence · code KEE
Keeneland
Friday, October 30, 2026.
Races
10
on the card
Feature
R7
B.C. Juvenile Fil (G1) · $2000K
First post
11:55 AM
ET · race 1
Runners
124
avg field 12
● Track conditions today
Keeneland — today's signals
Surface read
±0.83s MODERATE
Surface moves a moderate amount day to day — we apply the daily variant so figures stay comparable across the meet.
day-to-day swing · 59 race-days sampled
Weather
63° Mostly Clear
Clean conditions — surface should run true to the listed condition. No weather adjustment to the model read.
Carryover pool
None today
No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.
Do the model's percentages hold up?
Mostly
Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.
checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06
TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST
Best post #1 (13%) · Rail helps
Rail/inside bias — posts 1-3 win 11% vs 6% outside. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 10,098 starts.
Where the model is most sure
Three highest model win %.
The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.
Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg,
or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all.
This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.
R7#5 Miss Monica · #10 Emphatic · #11 VoyagerClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Daily DoubleRaces 6–7
R6#4 Brickyard BelleTop pick
R7#5 Miss Monica · #10 Emphatic · #11 VoyagerClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 6–8
R6#4 Brickyard BelleTop pick
R7#5 Miss Monica · #10 Emphatic · #11 VoyagerClose: top 3
R8#7 VantaTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Daily DoubleRaces 7–8
R7#5 Miss Monica · #10 Emphatic · #11 VoyagerClose: top 3
R8#7 VantaTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 7–9
R7#5 Miss Monica · #10 Emphatic · #11 VoyagerClose: top 3
R8#7 VantaTop pick
R9#5 HughesTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Daily DoubleRaces 8–9
R8#7 VantaTop pick
R9#5 HughesTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Late Pick 3Races 8–10 · $3 min
R8#7 VantaTop pick
R9#5 HughesTop pick
R10#12 Oscar · #5 How's Al Today · #8 Liam's LawClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Daily DoubleRaces 9–10
R9#5 HughesTop pick
R10#12 Oscar · #5 How's Al Today · #8 Liam's LawClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Today's races
Race-by-race with archetype.
Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.
For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.