MVR · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.95
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #1 Dream Police (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 60 · 72 · 59. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Runaway Power at 2-1. Use #2 Workstation in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 72. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 6-horse $12,500 claiming race at TDN.
Class relief: allowance last time, $10,000 claiming today. Finished 5th in a 5-horse allowance race at TDN, beaten 13 lengths.
Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming. Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time.
Figures have slipped: 67, 63, 59 over its last three. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile.
Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse $12,500 claiming race at TDN at 6.1-1.
Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time. 2nd last time, 3 lengths back, in a field of 6.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 RUNAWAY POWER (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 RUNAWAY POWER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.2% to their 27.0%).
- #1 DREAM POLICE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 20.2%).
- #6 HE'S MY BOY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 18.0%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #2 WORKSTATION (15-1) — our fair 6.9% is above the morning line's 5.1%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Dream Police; pressure from #3 Runaway Power, #6 He's My Boy; the shape helps #3 Runaway Power, #5 Balki Bartokomous, #6 He's My Boy; and works against #1 Dream Police.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#1 Dream Police
Top of the field by a clear 9-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#1 Dream Police OVER #3 Runaway Power · #2 Workstation · #5 Balki Bartokomous
Key #1 Dream Police on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#1 Dream Police / #3 Runaway Power · #2 Workstation · #5 Balki Bartokomous / #3 Runaway Power · #2 Workstation · #5 Balki Bartokomous · #6 He's My Boy
#1 Dream Police keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 1-5) 50% CARRYOVER