MVR · RACE 7
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $23,700 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #8 Midnight Warship (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 93 · 85 · 77. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Mr Loooch at 5-2. Use #6 Specialized in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Figures are climbing: 77, 85, 93 over its last three. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 93, with 87 next best.
Gets a new rider, Erik Barbaran replacing Alexander Chavez. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.
Won last out in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN. Worked 4F in :48.40 on Sep 15, 2nd of 7 at the distance.
Has won 9 of 25 going today's distance. Posted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Jan 13, in 1:03.40.
Winner of a 6-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN last time. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.
Class relief: $16,000 claiming last time, starter allowance today. Last out was 2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN.
Changes barns, from Nestor R Rivera to Juan Pablo Silva. Jockey switch: Rocco Bowen last out, Jose A Leon today.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 74 against a 84 par. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call.
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 MIDNIGHT WARSHIP (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #8 MIDNIGHT WARSHIP — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.8% to their 25.9%).
- #5 MR LOOOCH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.2%).
- #6 SPECIALIZED — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.3% to their 14.1%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #6 Specialized; pressure from #8 Midnight Warship, #5 Mr Loooch.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#8 Midnight Warship (place saver: #5 Mr Loooch)
#8 Midnight Warship rates the best; #5 Mr Loooch the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#8 Midnight Warship · #5 Mr Loooch
Two standouts with little between them — box #8 Midnight Warship and #5 Mr Loooch both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#8 Midnight Warship · #5 Mr Loooch · #6 Specialized
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#8 Midnight Warship / #5 Mr Loooch · #6 Specialized · #7 Gunner Gabriel · #2 Aint No Bandleader / #5 Mr Loooch · #6 Specialized · #7 Gunner Gabriel · #2 Aint No Bandleader / ALL or #5 Mr Loooch · #6 Specialized · #7 Gunner Gabriel · #2 Aint No Bandleader
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE