MVR · RACE 2
UPCOMINGState-Bred Maiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.62
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #3 Sharon's Wish (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 54 · 61 · 69. Backup is #1 The Ace Project at 6-1. Use #4 All Nine Yards in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Figures have slipped: 69, 61, 54 over its last three. Owns the highest recent figure here at 69.
Best recent figure is 60, well under the 71 par for this level. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
Finished 3rd in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at TDN, beaten 2 lengths. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Aug 10 (1:00.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
Carries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time. Beaten 4½ lengths for 2nd in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at TDN.
Gerardo Corrales takes over from David J Haldar in the saddle. 0 for 4 at today's distance.
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 5½ furlongs.
Worked 3F in :36.20 on Sep 1, 2nd of 10 at the distance. 5th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 6.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 SHARON'S WISH (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #3 SHARON'S WISH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 26.4%).
- #5 SNITCH — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.8%).
- #2 ATI DUDE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 14.4%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Ati Dude; pressure from #4 All Nine Yards, #6 Flashy Idol; the shape helps #1 The Ace Project; and works against #2 Ati Dude, #4 All Nine Yards, #6 Flashy Idol.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#3 Sharon's Wish
Top of the field by a clear 35-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#3 Sharon's Wish OVER #1 The Ace Project · #4 All Nine Yards · #5 Snitch
Key #3 Sharon's Wish on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#3 Sharon's Wish / #1 The Ace Project · #4 All Nine Yards · #5 Snitch / #1 The Ace Project · #4 All Nine Yards · #5 Snitch · #6 Flashy Idol
#3 Sharon's Wish keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)