MVR · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $6,500

Field

9 runners

Purse

$17,500

Post

2:07 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

IQ top

#9 · 89

PANELPASS · lean #9 BOOGIE BOOGEE [MAX]see full panel →

Claiming $6,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Boogie Boogee (a presser/stalker, M/L 20-1). Recent figures: 65 · 55 · 64. Backup is #7 Quick Rendezvous at 3-1. Use #4 Sarah Jane in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1WIN

9Boogie Boogee

Jockey Guillermo Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Julie A Pappada 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: Rollin In Spiders 9-2

CLASS DROP2/4 board here

New trainer: Michael C Pappada had it last time, Julie A Pappada now. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 1 (3F in :36.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L20-1

IQ89

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last5th · 18d

2PLACE

7Quick Rendezvous

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 5-for-17 on dirt this meet (29%), #2 of 12 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Balki Bartokomous 5-1, R2: All Nine Yards 5-1, R3: Diamonds N Dew 3-1, R4: Spirit Of Akron 3-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Driven For Success 9-2, R6: Truth N Soul 15-1, R8: Sammy's Halo 12-1

WON LAST

Figures are climbing: 64, 70, 72 over its last three. Winner of an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 75d ago

M/L3-1

IQ84

TierContender

StyleE

Last1st · 25d

3SHOW

4Sarah Jane

Jockey J Stokes 25% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer C L Bates 17% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Scioto 7-2

J Stokes takes over from J McKee in the saddle. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 62 against a 72 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 37 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ73

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 20d

4EXOTICS

5Kat Trax

Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career ★ 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 14 · Trainer Nestor R Rivera 33% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Flashy Idol 8-1, R3: Flashy N 2-1 · Trainer R2: Flashy Idol 8-1, R3: Flashy N 2-1

3/6 board here

2nd of 6 at 4F on Feb 1, in :50.20. Last out was 3rd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 163 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L4-1

IQ59

TierLive

StyleP

Last3rd · 20d

5EXOTICS

3Driven For Success

Jockey L R Rivera 34% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 14 · Trainer Jeff Radosevich 37% career ★ 5-for-17 on dirt this meet (29%), #2 of 12 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Truth N Soul 15-1, R7: Midnight Warship 2-1, R8: Sammy's Halo 12-1 · Trainer this race: Quick Rendezvous 3-1, R6: Truth N Soul 15-1, R8: Sammy's Halo 12-1

CLASS DROP

Best recent figure of 69 sits right around the 72 par. Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Apr 9; 0 works in 30d

M/L9-2

IQ58

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last4th · 20d

1Mobil Memory

Jockey Elijah Greenidge 20% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gary L Johnson 31% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Seeking Freedom 20-1 · Trainer R3: High Fire 20-1, R4: May Mayhem 8-1

2/3 board here

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 5th in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN, beaten 7½ lengths.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.40 on Dec 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L15-1

IQ53

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last5th · 25d

6Angel I'm Not

Jockey Victor R Fernandez 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert C Cline 30% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: The Ace Project 6-1, R6: Valiant Strike 3-1 · Trainer R1: Runaway Power 2-1, R2: Sharon's Wish 2-1, R4: Spirit Of Akron 3-1, R6: Scioto 7-2 +1 more

2/4 board here

Class relief: $16,000 claiming last time, $6,500 claiming today. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Hopped; pace; outfinishd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 169d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

M/L7-2

IQ46

TierLive

StyleE

Last3rd · 26d

2Go Girl

Jockey Jerome J Innis 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Susan D Yoder 23% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Workstation 15-1 · Trainer R8: Boaz 12-1

CLASS UP

Drops from $16,000 claiming to $6,500 claiming. 4th last time, 3 lengths back, in a field of 6.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 12 (3F in :37.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ33

TierLive

StyleE

Last4th · 47d

8Be Kozy

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Johanna Urieta 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Ollie's Folly 5-2, R7: Gunner Gabriel 6-1 · Trainer R4: Ollie's Folly 5-2, R7: Gunner Gabriel 6-1

CLASS DROP

Gets a new rider, D L Parker replacing Rocco Bowen. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

M/L8-1

IQ28

TierLongshot

StyleP

Last5th · 20d

At a glance

Market favourite #7 QUICK RENDEZVOUS (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#7 QUICK RENDEZVOUS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.5%).
#6 ANGEL I'M NOT — our #7 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 17.4%).
#5 KAT TRAX — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.9% to their 15.6%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: LONGSHOT-VALUE — #9 BOOGIE BOOGEE — convergence longshot: fair 5.3% over market 3.7% with HOT_CONNECTIONS

Longshot value: #9 BOOGIE BOOGEE (20-1) — our fair 5.3% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: top barn (35%) + jockey (34%) at 20-1 — proven edge band (ML 3+)

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Angel I'm Not; pressure from #2 Go Girl, #7 Quick Rendezvous; and works against #2 Go Girl, #6 Angel I'm Not, #7 Quick Rendezvous.

Lead

6Angel I'm Not902Go Girl897Quick Rendezvous89

Press

1Mobil Memory873Driven For Success839Boogie Boogee834Sarah Jane82

Stalk

8Be Kozy845Kat Trax82

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Angel I'm Not

Go Girl

Quick Rendezvous

Mobil Memory

Be Kozy

Driven For Success

Boogie Boogee

Sarah Jane

Kat Trax

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Go Girl

Driven For Success

Kat Trax

Angel I'm Not

Be Kozy

Boogie Boogee

Mobil Memory

Quick Rendezvous

Sarah Jane

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win / Place

#9 Boogie Boogee (place saver: #7 Quick Rendezvous)

#9 Boogie Boogee rates the best; #7 Quick Rendezvous the logical insurance if you want to be covered.

Exacta — BOX

#9 Boogie Boogee · #7 Quick Rendezvous

Two standouts with little between them — box #9 Boogie Boogee and #7 Quick Rendezvous both ways.

Trifecta — BOX

#9 Boogie Boogee · #7 Quick Rendezvous · #4 Sarah Jane

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Superfecta — KEY

#9 Boogie Boogee / #7 Quick Rendezvous · #4 Sarah Jane · #5 Kat Trax · #3 Driven For Success / #7 Quick Rendezvous · #4 Sarah Jane · #5 Kat Trax · #3 Driven For Success / ALL or #7 Quick Rendezvous · #4 Sarah Jane · #5 Kat Trax · #3 Driven For Success

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

Bet types offered at this track →

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8) 50% CARRYOVER

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.