MVR · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.95
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Valiant Strike (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 57 · 60 · 62. Backup is #5 Silver Is A Gift at 5-2. Use #7 Drill Em in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
3rd of 8 at 5F on Jun 26, in 1:01.80. Beaten 3½ lengths for 6th in a 7-horse allowance race at BTP.
0 for 5 at today's distance. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.
Returns from a 153-day break. New trainer: Robert M Gorham had it last time, Saul M Morales now.
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN. Class relief: $16,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today.
A 68 top number against a 73 par, so it fits the level. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile. A 52 is the high figure lately, short of the 73 par.
Back after 172 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Carries 124 pounds, 5 more than last time.
Moves up from $7,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming. Trending the wrong way on speed, 52 to 44 to 42.
Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Figures have slipped: 59, 56, 49 over its last three.
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 SILVER IS A GIFT (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #5 SILVER IS A GIFT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.2%).
- #4 VALIANT STRIKE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 19.5%).
- #2 SCIOTO — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 17.3%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Truth N Soul; pressure from #3 Vecchi, #9 Couple Beers Deep; the shape helps #4 Valiant Strike, #5 Silver Is A Gift; and works against #3 Vecchi, #8 Truth N Soul, #9 Couple Beers Deep.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 Valiant Strike
Top of the field by a clear 17-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 Valiant Strike OVER #5 Silver Is A Gift · #7 Drill Em · #1 Worthy Of It All
Key #4 Valiant Strike on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 Valiant Strike / #5 Silver Is A Gift · #7 Drill Em · #1 Worthy Of It All / #5 Silver Is A Gift · #7 Drill Em · #1 Worthy Of It All · #2 Scioto
#4 Valiant Strike keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#4 Valiant Strike / #5 Silver Is A Gift · #7 Drill Em · #1 Worthy Of It All · #2 Scioto / #5 Silver Is A Gift · #7 Drill Em · #1 Worthy Of It All · #2 Scioto / ALL or #5 Silver Is A Gift · #7 Drill Em · #1 Worthy Of It All · #2 Scioto
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)