MVR · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $6,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$17,500

Post

1:11 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

IQ top

#2 · 88

PANELPASS · lean #8 SPICE ICE [MAX]see full panel →

Claiming $6,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Angel Wings (a closer, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 52 · 68 · 52. Backup is #8 Spice Ice at 15-1. Use #5 Lady Fortune in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1WIN

2Angel Wings

Jockey Laureano Sosa 26% career ★ 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #2 of 14 · Trainer Ivan Calderon 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Dream Police 3-1, R2: Ati Dude 9-2, R8: Lightning Speed 7-2 · Trainer this race: Spice Ice 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

5th last time, 8 lengths back, in a field of 6. Best recent figure of 68 sits right around the 72 par.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 5 (4F in :48.20), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ88

TierLive

StyleS

Last5th · 41d

2PLACE

8Spice Ice

Jockey Humberto Haldar 27% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Ivan Calderon 28% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Angel Wings 6-1

Picks up 5 pounds from its last start. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 63 against a 72 par.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumpd btwn start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 95d ago)

M/L15-1

IQ87

TierLive

StyleS

Last6th · 20d

3SHOW

5Lady Fortune

Jockey Becerra Fernando Salazar 24% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Richard Zielinski 27% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Runaway Power 2-1, R7: Specialized 9-2, R8: Jolly Mon 4-1 · Trainer R2: All Nine Yards 5-1, R8: Mo Mo Lightning 15-1

60D LAYOFF4/6 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 71 against 68 for the next best. Class relief: allowance last time, $6,500 claiming today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through early), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 30d back

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L5-2

IQ84

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last7th · 89d

4EXOTICS

6Flashy N

Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career ★ 3-for-9 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 14 · Trainer Nestor R Rivera 33% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Flashy Idol 8-1, R5: Kat Trax 4-1 · Trainer R2: Flashy Idol 8-1, R5: Kat Trax 4-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Winner of a 5-horse $7,500 claiming race at TDN last time. Has moved up each time out, 61 to 62 to 67.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

SHARP LAST OUT Full of run; going away last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 110d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L2-1

IQ79

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last1st · 49d

5EXOTICS

1High Fire

Jockey Jason Simpson 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gary L Johnson 31% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: May Mayhem 8-1, R7: Swing State 10-1 · Trainer R4: May Mayhem 8-1, R5: Mobil Memory 15-1

Drops from $16,000 claiming to $6,500 claiming. Last out was 7th, 17 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 97d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L20-1

IQ72

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last7th · 49d

4Diamonds N Dew

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Shane Meyers 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Balki Bartokomous 5-1, R2: All Nine Yards 5-1, R4: Spirit Of Akron 3-1, R5: Quick Rendezvous 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Sgt York 4-1

4/5 board here

Led at the first call last time. Carries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 72d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L3-1

IQ66

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last4th · 18d

3Lady Loves Money

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Donaciano Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: He's My Boy 7-2, R4: Quiet Amigo 6-1, R7: Aint No Bandleader 8-1

CLASS UP6/7 board here

Figures have slipped: 56, 48, -3 over its last three. Was running in $16,000 claiming; today's $6,500 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 227d back

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 7 starts here

M/L12-1

IQ37

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last6th · 20d

7Penny's Treasure

Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Raquel A Castro 26% career

Also today · Jockey R4: C V Dynamic 20-1, R8: Killa Creed 6-1

◆ LIVE · TRIP TROUBLE

3rd of 14 at 4F on Apr 9, in :48.60. A 59 is the high figure lately, short of the 72 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 200d back

M/L10-1

IQ28

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last5th · 28d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 FLASHY N (2-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
#6 FLASHY N — our #4 number, about right at the windows (24.2% to their 25.8%).
#5 LADY FORTUNE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.2%).
#4 DIAMONDS N DEW — our #6 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.4%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: LONGSHOT-VALUE — #8 SPICE ICE — convergence longshot: fair 5.9% over market 4.8% with PACE_FITS

Longshot value: #8 SPICE ICE (15-1) — our fair 5.9% is above the morning line's 4.8%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Lady Loves Money; pressure from #6 Flashy N, #7 Penny's Treasure; the shape helps #4 Diamonds N Dew, #5 Lady Fortune, #6 Flashy N; and works against #3 Lady Loves Money.

Lead

3Lady Loves Money66

Press

6Flashy N877Penny's Treasure875Lady Fortune854Diamonds N Dew82

Stalk

none

2Angel Wings838Spice Ice731High Fire58

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Flashy N

Penny's Treasure

Lady Fortune

Diamonds N Dew

Lady Loves Money

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

High Fire

Spice Ice

Angel Wings

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Place / Show

#2 Angel Wings · #8 Spice Ice · #5 Lady Fortune

Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.

Exacta — BOX

#2 Angel Wings · #8 Spice Ice · #5 Lady Fortune

Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.

Trifecta — BOX

#2 Angel Wings · #8 Spice Ice · #5 Lady Fortune

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Superfecta — KEY

#2 Angel Wings / #8 Spice Ice · #5 Lady Fortune · #6 Flashy N · #1 High Fire / #8 Spice Ice · #5 Lady Fortune · #6 Flashy N · #1 High Fire / ALL or #8 Spice Ice · #5 Lady Fortune · #6 Flashy N · #1 High Fire

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #6 Flashy N — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE

50 CENT PICK 3 RACES (3-4-5) / 20 CENT BUCKEYE PICK 6 (RACES 3-8)-60% CARRYOVER

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.