MVR · RACE 4

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $23,700 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$23,700

Post

1:39 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

IQ top

#4 · 89

PANELPASS · lean #3 C V DYNAMIC [MAX]see full panel →

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Ollie's Folly (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 74 · 66 · 79. Backup is #2 Kinderhook at 7-2. Use #1 May Mayhem in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1WIN

4Ollie's Folly

Jockey D L Parker 35% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Johanna Urieta 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Be Kozy 8-1, R7: Gunner Gabriel 6-1 · Trainer R5: Be Kozy 8-1, R7: Gunner Gabriel 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/6 board here

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Owns the highest recent figure here at 88.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through after half), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Dec 24 (5F in 1:01.60), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L5-2

IQ89

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last6th · 19d

2PLACE

2Kinderhook

Jockey Erik Barbaran 36% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Marco Ibarra 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Sgt York 4-1, R2: Snitch 3-1, R6: Worthy Of It All 5-1, R7: Mr Loooch 5-2 +1 more · Trainer R7: Mr Loooch 5-2, R8: Estoico 15-1

CLASS UPWON LAST3/5 board here

Winner of a 6-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN last time. Class relief: $16,000 claiming last time, starter allowance today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L7-2

IQ86

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last1st · 21d

3SHOW

1May Mayhem

Jockey Jason Simpson 32% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gary L Johnson 31% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: High Fire 20-1, R7: Swing State 10-1 · Trainer R3: High Fire 20-1, R5: Mobil Memory 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

A big drop, $16,000 claiming to starter allowance, and worth asking why. Last out was 2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 22 (4F in :50.00), 0 works in 30d

M/L8-1

IQ79

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 20d

4EXOTICS

7Hidden Ransom

Jockey Luis Alberto Batista 31% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Lorenzo Juarez 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Estoico 15-1

CLASS UP2/3 board here

Jockey switch: Rocco Bowen last out, Luis Alberto Batista today. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 95).

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 160 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L4-1

IQ75

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 21d

5EXOTICS

5Spirit Of Akron

Jockey Jose A Bracho 35% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Robert C Cline 30% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Balki Bartokomous 5-1, R2: All Nine Yards 5-1, R3: Diamonds N Dew 3-1, R5: Quick Rendezvous 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Runaway Power 2-1, R2: Sharon's Wish 2-1, R5: Angel I'm Not 7-2, R6: Scioto 7-2 +1 more

CLASS UPWON LAST6/8 board here

Won last out in a 5-horse $16,000 claiming race at TDN. Was running in $16,000 claiming; today's starter allowance is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Quick move; much best.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Dec 14; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

M/L3-1

IQ63

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last1st · 26d

3C V Dynamic

Jockey Chelsey Keiser 33% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Robert Guciardo 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Penny's Treasure 10-1, R8: Killa Creed 6-1

CLASS UP3/6 board here

Best recent figure is 69, well under the 84 par for this level. Drops from $16,000 claiming to starter allowance.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup edge.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Dec 23 (3F in :36.40), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

M/L20-1

IQ56

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last8th · 20d

6Quiet Amigo

Jockey Angel I Diaz 33% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Justine Eder 14% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: He's My Boy 7-2, R3: Lady Loves Money 12-1, R7: Aint No Bandleader 8-1 · Trainer R7: Aint No Bandleader 8-1

CLASS UP0/3 board here

Figures are climbing: 46, 56, 76 over its last three. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.

EVEN PACE No pace edge either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

M/L6-1

IQ28

TierLive

StyleP

Last2nd · 27d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 OLLIE'S FOLLY (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 OLLIE'S FOLLY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.7%).
#5 SPIRIT OF AKRON — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.8%).
#2 KINDERHOOK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.7% to their 17.6%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: PASS — market efficient — no edge, pass

No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #7 Hidden Ransom; pressure from #2 Kinderhook, #1 May Mayhem.

Lead

none

Press

7Hidden Ransom952Kinderhook931May Mayhem905Spirit Of Akron894Ollie's Folly74

Stalk

6Quiet Amigo81

3C V Dynamic81

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Hidden Ransom

Kinderhook

May Mayhem

Spirit Of Akron

Quiet Amigo

Ollie's Folly

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

C V Dynamic

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win / Place

#4 Ollie's Folly (place saver: #2 Kinderhook)

#4 Ollie's Folly rates the best; #2 Kinderhook the logical insurance if you want to be covered.

Exacta — BOX

#4 Ollie's Folly · #2 Kinderhook

Two standouts with little between them — box #4 Ollie's Folly and #2 Kinderhook both ways.

Trifecta — BOX

#4 Ollie's Folly · #2 Kinderhook · #1 May Mayhem

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Bet types offered at this track →

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE

50 CENT PICK 3 RACES 4-5-6) / 50 CENT PICK 5 (RACES 4-8) 50% CARRYOVER

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.