MVR · RACE 8
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $33,700 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.95
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Jolly Mon (a closer, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 73 · 55 · 76. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Rollin In Spiders at 9-2. Use #10 Killa Creed in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Off 55 days since the last start. Best recent figure of 76 sits right around the 74 par.
3rd of 9 at 4F on Apr 11, in :49.20. Was 5th of 6 at the first call last time.
Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Jul 9 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
Figures are climbing: 60, 66, 67 over its last three. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 82. Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time.
Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Has moved up each time out, 51 to 64 to 73.
A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today. Led at the first call last time.
Finished 2nd in a 6-horse allowance race at TDN, beaten a head. Carries 121 pounds, 11 more than last time.
2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 5. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
Moves up from $12,500 claiming to allowance. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Mar 29, in :48.00.
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 LIGHTNING SPEED (7-2) — our number has it ranked #7.
- #4 JOLLY MON — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.1%, they've got 15.3%.
- #5 LIGHTNING SPEED — our #7 number, about right at the windows (15.5% to their 17.0%).
- #9 ROLLIN IN SPIDERS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.7% to their 13.9%).
Value read
- #4 JOLLY MON — we make it 18.1%, the morning line implies 15.3%. We're 18.5 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #10 Killa Creed; pressure from #1 Pure Grinding, #8 Mo Mo Lightning; the shape helps #5 Lightning Speed, #6 Bukele, #7 Boaz; and works against #1 Pure Grinding, #10 Killa Creed.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 Jolly Mon
Top of the field by a clear 27-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 Jolly Mon OVER #9 Rollin In Spiders · #10 Killa Creed · #2 Estoico
Key #4 Jolly Mon on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 Jolly Mon / #9 Rollin In Spiders · #10 Killa Creed · #2 Estoico / #9 Rollin In Spiders · #10 Killa Creed · #2 Estoico · #6 Bukele
#4 Jolly Mon keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#4 Jolly Mon / #9 Rollin In Spiders · #10 Killa Creed · #2 Estoico · #6 Bukele / #9 Rollin In Spiders · #10 Killa Creed · #2 Estoico · #6 Bukele / ALL or #9 Rollin In Spiders · #10 Killa Creed · #2 Estoico · #6 Bukele
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA