MVR · RACE 2
UPCOMINGAllowance · $25,900 purse
Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.95
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Electa (early speed, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 74 · 74 · 61. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Dreamwifedreamlife at 10-1. Use #2 Bend My Ear in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at PID. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. A big drop, $50,000 claiming to allowance, and worth asking why.
Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 78 for the next best. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
Beaten 11 lengths for 6th in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.
A step up in company: $15,000 claiming before, allowance today. Has moved up each time out, 56 to 62 to 64.
A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 ELECTA (1-1) — our number agrees.
- #4 ELECTA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (38.3% to their 40.5%).
- #2 BEND MY EAR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (23.4% to their 23.1%).
- #1 SUZIE Q'S SISTER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 16.2%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #6 DREAMWIFEDREAMLIFE (10-1) — our fair 10.7% is above the morning line's 7.4%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Electa; pressure from #5 Lady Midshipman, #1 Suzie Q's Sister; the shape helps #1 Suzie Q's Sister, #2 Bend My Ear; and works against #4 Electa, #5 Lady Midshipman.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#4 Electa (place saver: #6 Dreamwifedreamlife)
#4 Electa rates the best; #6 Dreamwifedreamlife the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#4 Electa · #6 Dreamwifedreamlife
Two standouts with little between them — box #4 Electa and #6 Dreamwifedreamlife both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#4 Electa · #6 Dreamwifedreamlife · #2 Bend My Ear
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA / DOUBLE
50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)